BDD Offers -

*Prospect View - Dexter Fowler, by Dave Rouleau
*Prospect View - Matt Antonelli, by Dave Rouleau
*San Diego Padres - Starting Pitching Analysis, by Dave Rouleau
*Fan Mania - Tigers Go Wild!, by Rob McQuown
*Waiting For Their Pitch, by Jonathan Hale
*Who is Mr. Baseball?
*The Bloggers Roundtable - Arizona Diamondbacks (Baltimore Orioles will be next in the lineup)
_____________________

Woke up this morning with a spring in my step, ready to rock!  And that's what I did: just put on the latest Dream Theater album “Systematic Chaos” and man, it feels good to be alive right about now…

- An Ohio congressman and also a former attorney for Pete Rose, Neil Volz, was to table a motion calling for the reinstatement of the all-time hit leader into baseball.  However, Pete Rose opposed that idea.

“We had it all ready to go, and (Rose) pulled the plug,” Volz said. “We were willing to say it was all our idea, which it was, but he didn't want it to appear as if he was going over and asking for this.”

- Even The Sydney Morning Herald, from Australia, has a piece on tainted numbers.

- Jamie Moyer and Raul Ibanez do not agree with the allegations from Shane Monahan.

- Geoff Young (Hardball Times, Ducksnorts, Knuckle Curve) looks back on the year that was.

-  In case you didn't know, all Baseball America National League top ten prospects lists have been published and are accessible for all, except the scouting reports and chats.

- Here's the girl who partied with Jim Leyritz a few hours before he killed a woman after failing to stop at a red light, drunk. Let's just say I that will be my sunshine for you this morning…that's quite enough for a few days…

- The latest on Matt Clement: Indians or Cardinals.

- Slow news and links day on the eve of 2008, so I'll just go for some shameless self-promotion that you should enjoy:

ITD Editorial - Burnett Options
ITD Editorial - Moving Snider to Double-A
ITD Editorial - Value of Depth
ITD Editorial - Jays Need Rios

Debate of the Day: Are you against Pete Rose being reinstated into baseball?

You can reach me at drouleau@baseballdigestdaily.com

Dexter Fowler - Outfielder, Colorado Rockies

Bats: Switch
Throws: Right
H/W: 6'5'', 173 pounds
DOB: 03/22/1986
Birthplace: Alpharetta, GA
High School: Milton High School - Alpharetta
Drafted: 14th round of 2004 draft

2007 Stats (A+, California League)

(245 AB) .273/.397/.367, 7 doubles, 5 triples, 2 home runs, 23 RBI, 44 BB, 64 K, 20 SB (11 CS)

vs RH: .264/.413/.374
vs LH: .306/.358/.355

Video, Audio and more

- At-bat
- Seen here with his parents at the ballpark
- After trading Larry Walker to St-Louis, Fowler was signed for 925,000$.
- Right before the 2007 season, the CF talked to HWB.
- He was named among the best young center fielders by The Harball Times.
- He was profiled in this lengthy article on MiLB.com after the 2007 season.

Quotes

- Asheville Tourists manager Joe Mikulik (please see this video), on the outfielder's ability (taken from Roxhead)

“The most athletic guy I've had here in seven years. I haven't had that type of athlete as far as the height, 6-5, the speed, the range and the arm strength. He's got power. We need to put some meat on those bones, but he's got a lot of strength. He's an exciting guy. He's a prototype center fielder because he's going to have size, speed, power, range, arm (strength). He's got it all. He makes center field look very easy.”

- Dan O'Dowd, Rockies GM, last year when asked why they weren't looking offering four-year deals for a CF (taken from MLB):

“Plus, four years for a center fielder, that's not going to work for us, because we have a center fielder [2004 bonus baby Dexter Fowler] that could be ready in two years, and I don't want to count out guys we have in the system now.”

- Great article in the 'Rocky Mountain News' about his collision with the wall that broke a bone in his right hand and some adjustments he made with his swing:

“The turnaround from the depths of April began when Fowler went back to positioning his hands batting left-handed.  In spring training, he began holding his hands lower, dropping them from roughly the height of his ear to below his shoulders.  What Fowler discovered was he would try to raise his hands to where they had been, creating timing problems.

“I was hitting the ball fine,” Fowler said. “I was just late on everything because I guess I wanted to bring my hands back up. I was seeing the pitches and seeing the ball. I was ready to swing. I guess it was more timing than anything, because I was breaking bats. I was hitting balls solid in the third base dugout. I was like, 'I'm seeing the ball and I'm loading and I'm doing everything. Why is it happening?' And I really couldn't figure it out. I changed it a little bit, and I guess it was just the old comfort thing.”

- From the Georgia General Assembly website:

“…WHEREAS, he started varsity baseball and basketball in the ninth grade and ultimately moved into the Milton High School District, playing at Milton for two years; and

WHEREAS, he led Milton High School to its first State High School Baseball Championship since the team of 1955 with a batting average of .476, 85 RBIs, and 14 home runs, and he was named a first round draft prospect; and

WHEREAS, he received over 100 college inquiries to play baseball and basketball, and, upon graduation, he accepted a generous academic and sports scholarship to attend the University of Miami; and

WHEREAS, he was declared a two-sport athlete and drafted by the Colorado Rockies Major League Baseball Program, signing his professional contract August 13, 2004…”

Analysis

Taken in the 14th round of the 2004 because of some concerns as to whether he would commit to professional baseball after attracting so much interest from Colleges around the country (including Harvard University), Dexter Fowler signed with the Colorado Rockies and has never looked back since.

While injuries (hamate bone in right hand in 2007, among others) have reduced the amount of at-bats he's been able to take, the switch-hitter shows superstar potential in center field and at the plate.

A right-handed hitter his whole life, the Colorado Rockies tried to make him a switch-hitter in instructional league as soon as he entered the organization and his left-handed swing is now considered better than his right-handed hack, primarily because it was perfectly molded from the start and didn't inherit major bad habits he now has to break.

“He did an unbelievable job with it so quickly that we didn't have to waste a lot of time wondering if it would work,” said Marc Gustafson, the Rockies' director of player development.” (MiLB)

The 21-year-old has all the tools he needs to succeed, but must get stronger in order to fully reach his power potential offensively (he projects to hit 15-20 homers annually in the majors).  His plate discipline will also be an aspect to work on, given the fact he will be counted on to hit at the top of the order, making him a spark plug for the lineup and a threat on the basepath (he has stolen 80 bases in 870 AB, but has been caught 40 times, for a poor 66.6% success rate so far).

Being a leadoff hitter requires a player that works the count and takes his walk and Fowler has certainly understood that concept, posting an increasing OBP in each of the three seasons he has played (.357, .358, .397), but struck out a bit more than one time out of every five at-bats last season (21.4 K%), compared to a 17.2 K% in 2006.

The Georgia State native could also very well be a perfect #2 hitter in a future Rockies lineup.  He can hit the ball to all fields AND get on base, making a good situational hitter.  While the BABIP statistic is not fully accurate mainly because it is too reliant on luck, he still put up a .363 BABIP in 2007.  With 62% of his batted balls recorded as ground balls, he needs to lift the ball more to be a power threat and his start at Double-A in 2008 will be a good test, when he will be facing more advanced pitching.

Among improvements he could make to his game, scouts have mentioned that he could bunt and use his speed more to create havoc and get on base.  A quieter swing would also go a long way to relax the young man at the plate and give him a chance to make more consistent contact with the ball (.282 minor league career average, but projects as a .300 hitter).

He was named to the Top Prospects team of the AFL by league managers, coaches and executives, even though he was shaking off the rust of missing three months and he had his power sapped following the wrist injury.  He finished with this batting line: .224/.325/.308

Defensively, his highly-touted skills are proven by the way he reads balls off the bat and makes difficult plays look routine.  Many coaches and front office executives have stated his incredible skills in center field and that he could become a superstar considering only his defensive skills and potential with more experience.

He recorded only four errors in 65 games played with the Modesto Nuts.

BDD Offers -

*First edition of 'Prospect View', with a look at Matt Antonelli, by Dave Rouleau
*San Diego Padres - Starting Pitching Analysis, by Dave Rouleau
*Fan Mania - Tigers Go Wild!, by Rob McQuown
*Waiting For Their Pitch, by Jonathan Hale
*The Dugout: A Tale of Two Franchises, by Dave Rouleau
*Who is Mr. Baseball?
*The Bloggers Roundtable - Arizona Diamondbacks (Baltimore Orioles will be next in the lineup)

Come back later today for another edition of 'Prospect View'.  Dexter Fowler will be the focus of attention.
__________________________________________________
- Magglio Ordonez had a great season in 2007, after signing a 7-year, 105 M$ contract in 2005.  A great article in which it is mentioned that manger Jim Leyland presented a baseball to the outfielder at the end of the season with these words inscribed:

“The best single-season performance I've ever seen.”

- Independent baseball baseball is coming to the national capital of Canada, Ottawa, in the form of a Can-Am League franchise.  The Commissioner of this league, Miles Wolff, has had a great career with Baseball America, affiliated baseball and now the independent leagues.

Here's an interesting interview he gave a few days ago.  Here's an excerpt:

Pete Toms: “Are relationships between affiliated and independent minor league baseball not good? Bob Wirz recently wrote, “The Winter Meetings continued to be busy for many Independent Baseball people, even without open arms from the brass running the affiliated minors.” Baseball America reported from the Winter Meetings that “…apparently MILB's board of trustees has voted to ban independent league teams from attending the sport's annual promotional seminar.” And, “We feel that when get together with members it should be with (MILB) members only,” Eastern League president Joe McEacharn said. “They are not part of us. Why should we let them hear our best and brightest speak at the promotional seminar.” Are relations strained, if yes, why?”

Miles Wolff:  “Yes, relations are strained or almost non-existent. Before independent baseball, the minor leagues had a monopoly. Now, there are options for cities, and some minor league operators don't like this. Plus, there seems to be an increased level of arrogance among some minor league owners. Those of us who have been in the game awhile don't believe it is warranted.”

- Murray Chass, of the New York Times, is asking himself a ton of questions about the upcoming baseball season.

- Jerry Green of The Detroit News asks: “Could Clemens Have Been Framed?“

- 'Sliding Into Home' has an update on the new Yankee Stadium construction process.

- As mentioned yesterday in the Roundup, the Astros farm system is devoid of impact talent and this Mound Talk Top Ten is even sadder: they traded two of their top 10 prospects for Miguel Tejada. 

The shortstop has the green light to play in the Dominican Republic in preparation for the upcoming MLB season.

Here is a list of every player born in the Dominican Republic (457).

- Get inside the mind of Curt Schilling with this interview.

- Home Run Derby presents a few videos of new Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, with a spectacular defense play included.

- Opening Day '08 will bring a new baseball season, but also new revelations from Jose Canseco.

Debate of the Day: What do you think will be the main story for the upcoming 2008 season?

Think you have found articles or other links that might be of interest to our readers?  You can reach me at drouleau@baseballdigestdaily.com

BDD Offers -

*First edition of 'Prospect View', with a look at Matt Antonelli, by Dave Rouleau
*San Diego Padres - Starting Pitching Analysis, by Dave Rouleau
*Fan Mania - Tigers Go Wild!, by Rob McQuown
*Waiting For Their Pitch, by Jonathan Hale
*The Dugout: A Tale of Two Franchises, by Dave Rouleau
*Who is Mr. Baseball?
*The Bloggers Roundtable - Arizona Diamondbacks (Baltimore Orioles will be next in the lineup)
_________________________________________________

- Former Yankees Jim Leyritz is in deep trouble after killing a 30-year-old woman in a road accident and refusing to take a Breathalyzer test.  He was charged with D.U.I.

- Richard D. Emery has been added to the legal team of Brian McNamee and will help refute allegations the former trainer lied about Clemens' use of PEDs.

-  The Houston Astros continued their wild spending yesterday, with the signing of RH reliever Oscar Villarreal to a two-year contract worth 2.85 M$.

GM Ed Wade is making some bizarre moves with his roster and mediocre farm system:

*He let the best shortstop of the majors, Adam Everett go (see Fielding Bible to judge performance and this multimedia page to witness the master), then traded among his best minor leaguers for a declining shortstop named Miguel Tejada.

*He signed Kazuo Matsui to a three-year deal worth 16.5 M$ (with a limited no-trade clause!!!) after he helped Colorado get into its first World Series in franchise history.  He performed well at Coors Field (.330/.381/.482), but really struggled on the road (.249/.304/.333). 

*He let his rotation pretty much intact, which means RHP Brandon Backe is the #3 guy in the rotation.  He had a 3.77 ERA in 28 IP last season, but allowed 11 walks and fanned 11 batters, while the right-handed batters batted hurt him at a .348 clip.  I would like to have him on my team as a number five starter, but there is no way he can handle the #3 spot AND give his team a chance to really contend.

After some major free agent signings prior to last season, the Astros did not get a chance to draft a player until the third round in the 2007 Amateur draft and even then, they did not come to term with their third and fourth round pick (and only 8 of their first 13 drafted players).  They really blew it, no doubt about it.  They are doing it all wrong: signing shaky veterans to costly contracts and not replenishing their farm system (they even traded their best hopes for a fading star who just got caught in the PEDs scandal).

I like the Darin Erstad signing for the added depth and length of the contract (one year), but unfortunately, he could be the sole bright spot of the offseason.

They need to get their priorities straight, because the franchise is a mess right now.  With Biggio and Bagwell gone for good, I wonder how they will be able to contend in the foreseeable future with no help in the pipeline and probably some contracts they'll be hard pressed to unload in the near future.

Limited no-trade clause to Kaz Matsui?  Sure…

- After some rumors emerged on the net that FOX fixture Ken Rosenthal was leaving for ESPN, Maury Brown of  'The Biz of Baseball' contacted him and got this quote:

“I'm strictly Fox and will be for the foreseeable future!”

Clear enough?

- Found on MLB Trade Rumors:  Juan Gonzalez has reportedly signed a two-year, 2 M$ contract with the Yankees.

If that's true, I really like the value of the deal, but I wonder if the roster spot he'll take is worth it.  He hasn't player regularly since 2003 and his last at-bat came in 2005.  He obviously won't be a starter, but a two-year deal when he'll begin the 2008 season at 38 years old? Hmmmm…

- Is Tim Raines a Hall of Famer?  Great discussion over at ESPN.  Jonah Keri talked to the man recently.

- Twins GM, Bill Smith, talked to Bill Reusse about his 'one big issue' remaining for the 2008 season.

- Pedro Martinez talks to the NY Daily News about his his decision to stay away from the PEDs.

- Are the Angels a real Contender?

- Jose Castillo, recently signed by the Florida Marlins, will have to compete with Jason Wood, a 38-year-old minor league player, for the third base job in 2008.

- With Jim Edmonds gone for the spacious outfield of San Diego, Colby Rasmus, 20, could jump directly to the majors, according to GM John Mozeliak without even an at-bat in AAA.  The team doesn't need him, but they'll give him every chance to take and run with this opportunity. 

Last year, two players did exactly that: Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado) and Alex Gordon (Kansas City)

- Jack Kerouac was many thing, but mainly, he was a baseball addict, says Nick Piecoro.

- Like Peter Gammons mentioned a few days ago, the remarkable Smoltz-Glavine-Maddux trio looks remarkable in the aftermath of the Mitchell report.  David O'Brien also talks about it here.  About Smoltz (excerpt):

“Smoltz has overcome four elbow surgeries and made numerous adjustments both in-season (who can forget his throwing sidearm, or resorting to knuckleballs because of throbbing elbow pain?) and between seasons, adjustments he believed he needed to make to remain a legitimate ace. Whatever he's done, it's worked. The man knows his body, abilities and limits about as well as any athlete I've ever been around.”

- What did I wrote recently about the incredible market India could be for baseball?  It's only the beginning.

- The Boston Red Sox recently flied some guys to Boston to check up on their health and overall offseason progress.  Good article by The Providence Journal.

- Take a look at Mark Prior's evolution through his baseball career with this photo gallery.

- The Cincinnati Post is shutting down and a Reds beat reporter is going down too.

Debate of the Day: With the Houston Astros a perfect example of what NOT to do when running a baseball franchise, who do you think is the best GM and the game and why?

(Joe, do not answer, we know your choice!)

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Also…as Dave Rouleau pointed out on the Baseball Digest Daily Facebook Group, don't forget to use the Baseball Digest Daily RSS Feed to stay in touch!

Just go to the BDD front page and click on the link in the upper left to stay in touch with the daily content put out by BDD. Plus, it is free and easy to use…

Be sure to check out:

- Prospect View
- Jonathan Hale
- Rob McQuown
- Craig Brown
- The Bloggers Roundtable
- Chatter From the Bleachers (new feature that's just around the corner!)
- Joe Hamrahi and his breaking news (how does he do that?!)
- Gordon Berger
- And of course the daily Roundups to keep yourself up-to-date with the news and best baseball writing out there on the net.

Matt Antonelli - Infielder, San Diego Padres

Bats: Right
Throws: Right
6'0'', 203 pounds
DOB: 04/08/85
Birthplace: Peabody, MA
Drafted: 19th round by LA Dodgers in 2003…1st round (17th overall) of 2006 draft

2007 Stats (A, AA combined)

(534 AB) .307/.404/.491, 25 doubles, 5 triples, 21 home runs, 78 RBI, 83 BB, 94 K, 28 SB (9 CS)

vs RHP with Lake Elsinore (A+): .299/.393/.466
vs LHP with Lake Elsinore (A+) : .358/.456/.612
vs RHP with San Antonio (AA): .291/.404/.496
vs LHP with San Antonio (AA): .279/.340/.395

Video, Audio and more

- Batting Practice
- In Action with Lake Elsinore (A+)
- Bill Gayton, Padres Scouting Director, on Matt Antonelli selection in first round (from WF website)
- Antonelli Bio (updated from WFU) - Downlodable PDF Version
- Scout.com profile before he was drafted (free) - “Draft Tracker: Antonelli a Top Ten Sleeper?“
- In the Spotlight (PDF document)

Quotes:

On his adjustments at the plate, during his load (from BA):

“I'm loading my hands. When I first signed, my hands were so still that I was basically starting my swing from a complete stop. Now I'm moving them back slightly, toward the catcher during the pitcher's delivery, which gives me better rhythm. That's the only real difference. My lower half is the same as it was when I got here.”

On his accomplishment and abilities (from Wake Forest University website):

“Sensational athlete with the ability to play all over the diamond… named second team Preseason All-American by Baseball America… rated by Baseball America as the No. 27 prospect in the junior class across the country… named Cape Cod League All-Star each of the past two summers for the Falmouth Commodores… a legitimate first round prospect heading into his draft eligible year”

After being taken 17th overall in 2006, by the SD Padres (WF website)

“I am a hard-nosed type player. I am also pretty versatile. I can play third, second and even in the outfield. I feel like I can do a lot. I can hit and run, steal bases and play pretty good defense.  I enjoy them all. I played third base in college after playing shortstop my whole life. I don't have a favorite position, necessarily, and any position will be fine with me.”

Analysis

As you will soon notice with the Prospect View feature, I put a lot of emphasis and importance on plate discipline and the reasons are simple:

- To score runs, you have to get on base.
- One of the best way for a player to advance through a minor league system is recognize which pitch he can drive and which offering he should lay off of.  Unless your contact ability is off the chart (see Robinson Diaz, C, Blue Jays), you need to be able to recognize pitches quick and talk your walks if a pitcher is erratic, in order to be ready to face more advanced pitching in later stages of your career.
If you learn to wait for your pitch to come, you also learn to stay back in the batter's box and you have an increased reaction time at the plate, making it easier to handle breaking pitches.

That being said, Matt Antonelli is a walking machine.  Here's what he had to say on plate discipline in this Baseball America interview:

“I probably take more pitches than a lot of guys. I used to take the first pitch in almost every at-bat, and when I was in high school I wouldn't even swing until I had taken a strike. They tried to break me of that habit in college, but I still took a lot of pitches early. I'm a little more aggressive now. The basic hitting philosophy in the Padres organization is to make sure you get your pitch, and to go after it when you do, so I'll swing if it's something I can drive.”

The right-handed batter broke the Wake Forest University walks record with 128 free passes and has maintained a .406 OBP through four levels (2 seasons) of the San Diego farm system.  the previous owner of the base-on-balls record was Jamie D'Antona, a second round pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

When it comes to power numbers, Antonelli projects to hit 15-20 homers in the majors with a high number of doubles and his fair share of triples, due to his athletic abilities and good bat speed.  He has stolen 37 bases in 191 games and has been caught 10 times.  He can hit for average, take a walk 15% of the time and also strike out in that same range, making him an ideal number one or two hitter. 

Something that he needs to work on is hitting the ball to all fields.  After 146 batted balls in AA (187 AB), only 21% were to the right side of the field and his seven homers were over the left field fence.  However, when looking at the same numbers at the A+ level, he was able to direct the ball to opposite field much more consistently, showing that he was maybe just in the process of adjusting to the more advanced pitching offered by AA hurlers.  The jump from A to AA has been said to be the biggest and hardest for minor leaguers.

Just before he was promoted to AA (July), he was walking almost one out of every five at-bats and lifting the ball much more consistently, with a GB% that diminished to 31% after hitting grounders 52% of the time in April.  His OPS in July stood at 1.100.

Defensively, the 22-year-old has quick feet and a good arm.  He was switched to the second from third base to match the need at the major league level.  He committed 18 errors in 131 games, but was lauded by his AA manager, Carlos Lezcano:

“Durability and his approach day in and day out. He was very professional. His toughness and the adjustments he made coming from second to third.  What impressed me the most was the way he turned a double play. It is not easy coming from third to turn a double play with a runner bearing down on you. He stayed in their very well. Once you get used to that it is about getting used to the range and the movement and getting used to the position. You look at him and he looks like a second baseman.  He will be in the big leagues soon.”

It all comes down to his athleticism, ability to adjust and his makeup that's off the chart.  His versatility could very well make put him in a situation where he will meet almost any needs that could arise from the big club and fast-track his debut at the highest level.

Case in point, the West Coast franchise recently announced that Antonelli will be taking fly balls in Petco Park's spacious center field next month.

You can reach me drouleau@baseballdigestdaily.com

BDD Offers -

*San Diego Padres - Starting Pitching Analysis, by Dave Rouleau
*Does Juan Pierre Help a Team?, by Rob McQuown
*Mitchell Report Creates More Questions Than Answer, by Gordon Berger (first article for BDD)
*Waiting For Their Pitch, by Jonathan Hale
*The Dugout: A Tale of Two Franchises, by Dave Rouleau
*Who is Mr. Baseball?
*The Bloggers Roundtable - Arizona Diamondbacks (Baltimore Orioles will be next in the lineup)

New feature: 
Beginning today, I will be offering prospect analysis four times
a week on this blog (in a separate post).  It will be called “Prospect
View”.  For a sample of what to expect, read this Trevor Crowe analysis.  I will be adding a few bonus stats analysis to go with the post and and overall view of their career to date.

Today's Prospect View - Matt Antonelli, San Diego
_______________________________________________

- A member of the congressional committee charged with investigating the use of PEDs in baseball, Christopher Shays, says that the event will ultimately yield very little useful info and that the presence of player is not important.  He had harsh words for baseball's leadership on the issue:

“Part of it is that major league baseball has been incredibly passive on this issue to the point of condoning it,” he said. “And so, who do I think is mostly at fault? The commissioner, frankly, for tolerating it and for not having the guts to step up and say we need changes and if you don't agree with me, then find someone else to run this corrupt process.”

- The Yankees would love to see Robinson Cano stop playing Winter baseball with his current Dominican Republic team, mainly in order not to aggravate his calf injury.

- The Contra Costa Times offers the best resolutions the baseball world has heard yet.

- The NY Daily News reports that the Mets have been in contact with the agent of RH starter Jon Lieber.

- ESPN Debate (between Sean McAdam and Phil Rogers): Is Goose Gossage a Hall of Famer?

- Roger Clemens T-Shirt punch line was 'not meant to be a joke'.

- John Henry Moss is stepping down as president of the South Atlantic League on January 1st, 2008.

- What did Bill James' abstracts had to say on Tim Raines in the 1980's?  Rich Lederer examines the question.

- Here's the first edition of “What If…History Weren't?”, offered by Ballhype.  This time, they re-visit the October 2003 baseball playoffs.

- Very good article by Lisa Gray, at The Hardball Times, titled “Roger Clemens and Houston, Texa: A Love Story“.

- Darin Erstad has been signed to a one-year contract by the Houston Astros yesterday, worth 1 M$.

Here is the Houston Astros depth chart.

- SS Jed Lowrie and RHP Justin Masterson are working hard to achieve their dream of playing in the majors.

- You can read a thorough examination of last year's first round pick, David Price.

- Are the Brewers thinking of adding an arm to that bullpen and carry 13 pitchers in 2008?

- Here's a photo gallery of the planned changes to be made to Kauffman Stadium.

More links, news and comments in the Roundups later in the day.

Debate of the Day: What would be the first order of business for you, if you were Commissioner  of Baseball, and how would you make it happen?

Please debate in the Comments section.
You can reach me at drouleau@baseballdigestdaily.com

The Kansas City Royals have signed catcher Miguel Olivo to a one-year contract for 2008 with a mutual option for the 2009 season.

“Miguel is a talented catcher with a power bat and a very strong throwing arm,” Royals General Manager Dayton Moore said. “With him and John Buck, they form one of the most powerful catching duos in baseball.”

(Editor's Note: Not sure I agree with that Dayton, but I'll give you a free pass on that one!)

Olivo, 29, has served as the Florida Marlins primary catcher the past two seasons after spending four seasons with the White Sox (2002-04), Mariners (2004-05) and Padres (2005). Olivo hit .237 (107-for-452) with 20 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs and 60 RBI in 122 games with Florida in 2007 after hitting .263 (113-for-430) with 22 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs and 58 RBI in 2006. Defensively, he has thrown out 31.2 percent (45 of 144) of attempted base stealers the past two seasons, good for fourth-best in the National League.

BDD Offers:

*NEW ARTICLE*Does Juan Pierre Help a Team?, by Rob McQuown
*Mitchell Report Creates More Questions Than Answer, by Gordon Berger (first article for BDD)
*Waiting For Their Pitch, by Jonathan Hale
*The Dugout: A Tale of Two Franchises, by Dave Rouleau
*Who is Mr. Baseball?
*The Bloggers Roundtable - Arizona Diamondbacks (Baltimore Orioles will be next in the lineup)

New feature: 
Beginning this Friday, I will be offering prospect analysis four times
a week on this blog (in a separate post).  It will be called “Prospect
View”.  For a sample of what to expect, read this Trevor Crowe analysis.  I will be adding a few bonus stats analysis to go with the post and and overall view of their career to date.

__________________________________________

San Diego Padres general manager Kevin Towers has piled up another arm on top of his already top-performing pitching staff (best overall in MLB with 3.70 ERA, third fewest walks allowed with 474, most shutout by far with 20, best OPS against with .686 and best WHIP with 1.27).  This time, Mark Prior, a first round pick in the 2001 Amateur draft, was added to this impressive bunch to pitch in the fifth slot of the starting rotation.

After pitching 257 innings with the University of South California at the age of 19 and 20 years old, he was drafted and pitched 379 innings in his first two professional years in baseball, just before all the injuries began.  I think the 379 IP can give you an idea about the cause for the multiple injuries since…

Since his 2002 debut, the right-hander has struck out 757 batters in 657 innings pitched, for a 10.37 K/9 and has always kept runners away from the first base with a 1.23 career average WHIP (which is a little skewed by a 1.69 WHIP for his 43 IP last season).  As everyone knows, injuries to his elbow and shoulder have kept him away from the game, logging in more than 200 innings only one time, in 2003.

If he had kept the pace with the WHIP and K/9 numbers, that would have placed him in the top 15 and top 5, respectively, among active pitchers.  He attacks hitters with a mid-90s fastball, curve, slurve and a change-up.  He has average mechanics and keeps the ball down in the zone.

Please see these excellent references for Prior mechanics analysis:

HT
Chris O'Leary

How much did he sign for yesterday? 1M$.  Another 4.5 M$ can be added as incentives.  You have to love the following quote from the MLB article dedicated to his signing:

“I'm 27 and guys are pitching into their 40s now,” Prior said. “For unfortunate reasons, I haven't been healthy since 2005. But I feel that I have a lot of great years ahead of me.” And that's why Prior and his San Diego-based agent, John Boggs, rebuffed multiyear offers and even offers for larger base pay to accept a one-year deal to play for his hometown team.”

Let's take a look at what the Padres' starters will offer National League batters in 2008.

Starting Rotation (with 2007 stats)

Jake Peavy
(77 VORP, 2.54 ERA, 1.06, WHIP, 223.1 IP, 169 H, 63 ER, 13 HR, 68 BB, 240 K, 45 GB%)
Chris Young
(45.8 VORP, 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 173 IP, 118 H, 60 ER, 10 HR, 72 BB, 167 K, 30 GB%)
Greg Maddux
(35.7 VORP, 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 198 IP, 221 H, 91 ER, 14 HR, 25 BB, 104 K, 52 GB%)
Randy Wolf
(12.1 VORP, 4.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 102.2 IP, 110 H, 54 ER, 10 HR, 39 BB, 94 K, 42 GB%)
Mark Prior (should be available in May)
(did not pitch…2005 numbers: 31.8 VORP, 3.67 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 166.2 IP, 143 H, 68 ER, 25 HR, 59 BB, 188 K, 40 GB%)

Jake Peavy, having just signed a contract extension that could see him in a Padres uniform until 2013, will anchor the rotation with his electric arsenal and really profit from the Petco Park dimensions.  The right-hander has never induced an incredible amount of ground balls, but pitched more innings in 2007 compared to the previous season and allowed 10 fewer home runs (13).  His 77 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player = for a pitcher, it means the amount of runs prevented when he was on the mound over a replacement-level player) led the majors by a wide margin (11 runs).  He is the definition of an ace.

At 26 years old, he pitched better than his career averages in K/9 (9.67), average against (.208), OBP against (.272), slugging against (.312), pitch per innings (16.2) and winning % (.760).

Repertoire: two-seam (90 mph) and four-seam (97 mph) fastballs, change-up (80-84 mph), hard slider (83-88 mph) and occasionally throws big looping curve ball (mid 70s).

Pitch F/X card

Chris Young could also be an ace on most staff in major league baseball.  You can see by his low GB% that his home park helps him a lot and gets away with fastballs mistakes high in the zone, although hitters can only hope they lift the ball enough when they get a chance to put the bat on it.  With 32.7 % of batted balls going for center field (he also allowed 100 more fly balls than ground balls) in 2007, he benefited from Mike Cameron's defense and could rely on Jim Edmonds for the same type of performance in 2008.

He posted a .192 average against last season and like Peavy, his fastball-slider combination against right-handed batters his devastating and needed (95 of all pitches thrown against them).

Repertoire: fastball with late life (tops in the low 90s), slider (around 80 mph), change-up (around 80 mph) and a curve ball in the low 70s.

Pitch F/X card

Greg Maddux is a veteran that relies on changing speeds and painting the corners to get batters out.  His flawless and well-repeated mechanics make hitters look bad while swinging over pitches or hitting the ball weakly to fielders.  After striking between 170 and 200 batters in the 90's, his velocity has declined with age and he now pitches more to contact, although hitters have a hard time squaring up the ball correctly.  He has pitched at least 194 inning since 1996 and still doesn't give up a lot of walks (1.81 career average BB/9). 

His sinker-change combination can give headaches to hitters because of both their late drop in the strike zone and small 5 mph difference.

Repertoire: sinker (85-87 mph), change (80-82 mph), curve (mid-70s), cutter (mid-80s)

Pitch F/X card

“Chicks Dig the Long Ball“

Randy Wolf posted some good numbers as a starter for the Philadelphis Phillies until 2004, when the injuries took their toll and he missed more and more games with each passing years.  He was signed by the Dodgers last season and pitched well until other arm injuries cut his season short at the beginning of July.  He was averaging 6 IP/game and posted better K/9 and HR/9 numbers than his major league career average.  The lefty was signed this offseason to a one-year deal worth 4.5 M$ plus incentives that could make the deal a 9 M$ investment, another case (with Prior) where the team could be rewarded by a good performance, but also sink with the possibility of a breakdown by two starting pitchers.

The 31-year-old said that he is 100% healthy and that he expected to throw 200 innings (has not done so since 2003) and start 32-33 games for the San Diego franchise next season.

Repertoire: fastball (tops in low-90s), curve (67 mph), slider (around 80 mph), change-up (around 80 mph)

Pitch F/X card

Expectations

What's not to like here, except for the hitting they'll be facing in the NL West?  With their top three returning for another year, we can more or less expect the same production, with Peavy (entering his prime), Young (in his prime) and Maddux (what can I say about him that hasn't been said) all proven work horses that look even better with the conditions offered at Petco Park.

The wild cards here are Wolf and Prior: Wolf is well underway in his pitching program and showed signs of coming to his old self last year with LA.  If he is used in the #4 spot, he can produce as much as any team's number three starter and eat up innings.
Prior hasn't pitched since August 10th of 2006 and believe it or not, that could be a good sign: he had an operation on his shoulder last April and his arm has been resting for a long time.  If he regains his mechanics he had when he first entered pro ball (see links above), there is no reason Padres manager Bud Black can't work with him to come back strong with confidence and subtle adjustments that he can, as a former pitcher and pitching coach, apply to his new student. 

The #4-5 spots were filled by David Wells and Justin Germano last year, combining for a 13.8 VORP (13.1 of that total produced by the surprising Germano).  That stat can only improve in 2008 (either with the planned staff or spot starts by Germano, Shawn Estes, Clay Hensley or Wil Ledezma) and make the best MLB pitching staff better.

Get to know the San Diego Padres franchise better.

- Clemens' lawyer has hired private investigators to try and challenge Brian McNamee's credibility.

- The Biz of Baseball offers a breakdown of drug suspensions in MLB's testing era.

- Who do you like in the HOF '08 class?  Geoff Young of Knuckle Curve wants to know.  We do too, that's our Debate of the Day.

Debate of the Day: Who do you want to see inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2008?  Check the batters and pitchers lists to view the candidates.

More news, comments, links coming up later in the day!  You can reach me at drouleau@baseballdigestdaily.com.

I'd like to thank everyone for their warm wishes and kind thoughts in response to my post last week. I'm happy to announce the following winners of Baseball Digest Daily's first annual holiday giveaway…

- The Bill James Handbook 2008 - John Williams: curlyshawe@valornet.com

- A copy of the 2007 Boston Red Sox media guide…that's right, from this championship season - Dick Williams: teddyballgame9lf@comcast.net

- JC Bradbury's Baseball Economist - Ron Steeples: rdhdstepchild@wi.rr.com

- John Burnson's 2008 Graphical Player - Christopher Greening: jellyfrogman12@gmail.com

- The Book by Tom Tango, MGL, and Andrew Dolphin - John Cunningham: cunnije@yahoo.com

- 2 General Admission tickets to a major league baseball game of your choice…pending availability of course - Dan Schroeder: twolvesguy@yahoo.com

- A Baseball Digest Daily T-Shirt! - Jim Berger: jpb04090@gmail.com

and…

2 grand prizes…A one year subscription to Heater Magazine or a one year subscription to Baseball Prospectus! - Keith Howard: strato@cfl.rr.com & Ted Brauch: bear44b@comcast.net

Congratulations everyone and thanks again for a great year! I will email all those above with specifics on the prizes, shipping, sizes, etc.