image_alt_text
Main Page

 TPoSGD: The Mike Gill Show–Diagnosis is murder…

As per usual, it is time to get ready for my weekly segment on ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show. Today we toss around the following…

  • John Smoltz says he would go back to pen … Is this a good move and if he does–can they win the NL East?
  • Are the New York Yankees in trouble?
  • April is (almost) in the books–which of these teams have staying power: Rays, Orioles, White Sox, A’s, Marlins and Cardinals.
  • What’s up with the Rockies?
  • Are the Snakes the best team in baseball–will the NL West be a race at all?
  • The Phillies bullpen–illusion or reality?

John Smoltz says he would go back to pen … Is this a good move and if he does–can they win the NL East?

Well, the NL East looks a lot more open than it did during the off season. It’s a good move only if he cannot start. As my mother used to say: Just because the Phillies yanked their No. 1 starter from the rotation and made him closer and won a division title doesn’t mean you have to do it as well (I may be misremembering slightly). What may be a good idea is for Smoltz to close until he feels ready to start. By this point a number of teams will looking ahead to 2009 and be willing to deal their closer for considerations. Some that may become available include Troy Percival (Rays), C.J. Wilson (Rangers), Brian Wilson (Giants), Matt Capps (Bucs), and Jon Rauch (Nats).   

Are the New York Yankees in trouble?

I’d say they have issues right now. Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada are on the DL, only Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte are contributing from the rotation while Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy are dealing with the alleged ‘sophomore jinx.’ Robbie Cano is again off to a slow start, Jason Giambi is ready to be covered in marmalade, Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu are scuffling and Jose Molina is playing like Jose Molina.

They’re also two games out of first place and will likely shore up the roster at some point. I’ve predicted the Yankees demise faithfully since about 2002 and have been proven wrong each time. This year I‘m going to say that they will be fine, that way either I‘ll be right or the Yankees will be dead. Quite frankly, I don’t see a downside–do you?  

April is (almost) in the books–which of these teams have staying power: Rays, Orioles, White Sox, A’s, Marlins and Cardinals.

Let’s break this down by league. We’ll deal with the NL first. Right now, the Marlins are getting it done with power and relief pitching. One is prone to slump, the other wild variation. The Fish’s rotation is second worst in the league (5.55 ERA) and their OBP is 10th in the NL (.324). I would expect them to come down to earth before much longer. The Cardinals have the advantage of playing in the NL Central. They’ve a league best 3.31 ERA for their starters and their bullpen is a respectable 3.78 ERA. Their power is a little light overall (11th in HR; 7th in SLG) but they’re tops in the league in OBP. That bodes well for the RedBirds. I’m guessing a lot of G.M. are getting strips taken off them for passing on Kyle Lohse (3-0, 2.36 ERA)–he may be the bargain of the off season.

On the AL side, I think we can eliminate the Orioles and Rays from the discussion simply because of the attrition in the AL East. The Rays are on their way but I think they’re a year early (although I said that about the Tigers early in 2006 too). I wouldn’t be shocked if they stayed in it for quite a while. The White Sox are hard to gauge–they have the Tigers and Tribe to contend with but they also have a nice mix of veterans and youngsters. I’m going to say that the White Sox are more contender than pretender–especially if John Danks and Gavin Floyd continue to throw well. The A’s need only power as their rotation and bullpen both appear solid at the moment although I’m not sure how the front four will hold up all year. However, the Angels are vulnerable due to uncertainty surrounding John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar as well as the Mariners’ offense will keep things interesting in the Pacific northwest. This will keep the A's in the thick of things.     

Probably the only two team I feel comfortable stating will fade at this point are the Marlins and Orioles.

What’s up with the Rockies?

Everything–their starting pitching is second-worst in the league (5.31 ERA), their bullpen is average (3.61 ERA) and their offense in anemic (13th in runs–112; 10th in HR–21, 9th and 11th in OBP and SLG–.325 and .386 respectively). Catcher Yorvit Torrealba, 2B Jayson Nix, SS Troy Tulowitzki and Willie Taveras are all off to slow starts and Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe’s power is MIA. Other than Aaron Cook, the whole rotation is giving up base runners galore (non-Cook starters have a BB/9 of over five). They’ve got their work cut out for them.  

Are the Snakes the best team in baseball–will the NL West be a race at all?

Well, their rotation (3.37) and bullpen (2.73) are second in the NL in ERA, they’re first in runs scored (157), SLG (.460), third in HR (34) and fifth in OBP (.344) … this is a complete team. I picked them to win both the NL pennant and the World Series and for once in my life I seem to have made a decent prediction. 

The Phillies bullpen–illusion or reality?

It’s hard to believe isn’t it? The Phillies have the second best relief ERA in the NL thus far. Relievers are probably the hardest group of players to predict. This is actually good news for the Phillies in that this could be the proverbial ‘lightning-in-a-bottle.’ There are things that give me pause though–I would be concerned about is their high number of walks (4.9 BB/9) and low number of whiffs (6.4 K/9) even though they don’t give up many hits. Generally, those numbers don’t translate into a low ERA.

However, despite an awful debut in 2008, Tom Gordon has a 1.80 ERA since Opening Day and opposing hitters are batting .139/.244/.167 off of him since then. Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero’s ERA are offset somewhat by the number of inherited runners that comes around to score (Durbin: 7/3; Romero 10/5). On the bright side, both are throwing a lot of ground balls which is huge for the Phillies due to the park they play in. Ryan Madson is unpredictable thus far, Brad Lidge looks like his old self. If Rudy Seanez can get his command back he could be the steal of the off-season since he‘s also throwing a lot of groundballs.

Assuming health, I think between Lidge, Gordon, Romero, Seanez and possibly Durbin the Phillies should have a solid bullpen this year. If they can cut down the walks–it could be a very good relief corps.         

Best Regards

John

 What if the Denials Are True?

What do Mike Cameron and Jordan Schafer have in common? Well, yes, both are outfielders. But both also have been suspended for violating baseball's drug policy.

Cameron is an established big leaguer with 200+ home runs and three Gold Gloves to his credit. He was nailed at the end of last season while with the San Diego Padres for testing positive for a “banned stimulant,” which resulted in a 25-game suspension to start 2008.

Cameron returned to the playing field Tuesday in fine fashion, going 3-for-5 for his new team, the Milwaukee Brewers. He also had a few words to say about — well, we're not quite sure:

That's personal and it was all wrong in the first place. You
guys got some bad information — or bad information was distributed — and I'm
going to leave it at that. I'm so tired of talking about it. Every time I see my
name there, it's always “that guy.” … It's over and done with.

I can't really parse most of this, but here are some key phrases to consider:

  • it was all wrong in the first place
  • you guys got some bad information
  • I'm so tired of talking about it
  • it's over and done with

Now we turn to Schafer, a top prospect in the Atlanta Braves organization. Schafer will miss this season's first 50 games because of a suspension for the use of human growth hormone. Here's some of what he has to say about his situation:

It's not what it seems. It's different, but I really
can't comment. I have to just let people think (what they will) and
move on, and people will see by the way I play when I come back it was
nothing like that. I'm the same player I've always been. It has nothing
to do with any of that.

And the bullet points:

  • it's not what it seems
  • I have to move on
  • it has nothing to do with any of that

First off, that's pretty nice work from the rookie. He says mostly the same things that Cameron does, only without the sense of entitlement that a multi-million dollar contract brings.

Second, what if there's some truth in what these guys are saying? What if “it was all wrong in the first place” or “it's not what it seems” are reasonable representations of reality? I'm not claiming to have inside information here, I'm just engaging in a little thought experiment.

If guys are getting suspended in situations where maybe they shouldn't be, then what? Is this the price we're willing to pay to keep folks comfortable in the belief that somehow the children are being saved from steroids? In other words, is it more acceptable to drag a few players under the proverbial bus in the name of The Cause than to let folks slide like they have for the past however many years?

These aren't easy questions. I don't have the answers. Do you?

 Jays Offense Not Helping Halladay

The Toronto Blue Jays wasted yet another excellent outing
from starting pitcher Roy Halladay. The right-hander pitched a complete game
and didn’t allow a run until the ninth inning. Unfortunately, his team scored
no runs in support of him and they lost 1-0. Halladay pitched a complete game:
8 and two-thirds innings, allowing five hits and one walk, and struck out six.
The only run he allowed came in the bottom of the ninth inning when Kevin
Youkilis singled to center to score David Ortiz from second base.

That was the fourth straight complete game from Halladay,
yet the Blue Jays have won in just one of them. Granted, his April 17
and 23 starts weren’t exactly stellar, but his team wasn’t helping him out by
scoring only 1 and 3 runs in those games, respectively. Despite the oddity of
pitching four straight complete games and only winning one of them, this seemed
familiar, so I decided to root through Halladay’s game logs on Baseball
Reference
and see what the deal was. I looked not just at complete games but other 9+ inning performances as well (games that went extra innings, referred to in shorthand herein as 9+EI).

Overall, the Jays are 30-10 when Halladay pitches a complete game or 9+EI. Halladay has a 27-8 record with 5 no-decisions.

His average pitching line in such games looks like:

9 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 107 pitches

His team only averages 3.8 runs in support of him. In fact, the Jays have scored 4 runs or less in 25 of the 40 games (62.5%) in question.

When Halladay throws 109 pitches or less, the Jays are 20-2. When he throws 110 or more, the Jays are 10-8.

Halladay has pitched CG's or 9+EI the most against the Devil Rays and Tigers, with six apiece. The Rangers and Red Sox are next at four apiece.

Halladay has, in fact, pitched a 10-inning complete game not once, but twice: September 6, 2003 against the Tigers and April 13, 2007 against the Tigers as well. The only other pitchers to go 10 innings in a start this decade were Aaron Harang and Mark Mulder. There were 37 such occurrences in the 1990's.

Lastly, here is the team won-lost breakdown by year (Halladay W-L-ND) with the Jays' offensive rank:

1998: 1 win, 0 losses (1-0-0); 8/14
1999: 1 win, 0 losses (1-0-0); 5/14
2001: 1 win, 0 losses (1-0-0); 9/14
2002: 2 wins, 0 losses (2-0-0); 7/14
2003: 8 wins, 2 losses (8-1-1); 2/14
2004: 1 win, 0 losses (1-0-0); 11/14
2005: 6 wins, 0 losses (5-0-1); 5/14
2006: 4 wins, 1 loss (3-1-1); 7/14
2007: 5 wins, 4 losses (4-3-2); 10/14
2008: 1 win, 3 losses (1-3-0); 12/14
Total: 30 wins, 10 losses (27-8-5)

If you want to download the Word document where I go even more in-depth with these “splits,” click here to download it. If you want to download the Excel spreadsheet where I've come up with these calculations, click here to download it.

What can we conclude from this? Well, Halladay is a hell of a pitcher; however, the Jays should keep him under 110 pitches. The reason why the team hasn't truly benefited in recent years from his CG and 9+EI performances is because they're not scoring any runs for him — their offense has gotten progressively worse since 2005.

In the era of the bullpen, Halladay's rash of complete games are truly unique and he should stick out like a sore thumb when we look back on the 2000's in the future.

 Baseball Transactions - Tuesday

Given regular playing time, Jason Botts could find success with another team,
after the Rangers designated him for assignment (brentandmarilynn/flickr)


Atlanta
   

Yunel Escobar - Missed 1 game (finger injury).
Chipper Jones - Missed 2 games (back spasms).
Tom Glavine - Missed 13 games (hamstring).
John Smoltz - Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
    
Baltimore    

Garrett A. Olson - Recalled from Norfolk (AAA).
Robert McCrory - Recalled from Norfolk (AAA).
Brandon Fahey - Optioned to Norfolk (AAA).
Greg Aquino - Designated for assignment by the Baltimore Orioles.
    
Boston    

David Ortiz - Missed 2 games (bruised right knee).
Jacoby Ellsbury - Groin, day-to-day.
Mike Lowell - Missed 18 games (sprained left thumb).
Bryan Corey - Designated for assignment by the Boston Red Sox.
    
Chicago White Sox    

Jermaine Dye - Missed 4 games (groin).
    
Cleveland    

Grady Sizemore - Missed 2 games (sprained right ankle).
    
Colorado    

Franklin Morales - Optioned to Colorado Springs (AAA).
    
Florida    

Mike Jacobs - Missed 1 game (finger injury).
    
Kansas City    

Mark Grudzielanek - Missed 5 games (lower back strain).
    
Los Angeles Dodgers    

Jonathan Broxton - Right shoulder inflammation, day-to-day.
    
Milwaukee    

Mike Cameron - Missed 25 games (suspension).
    
Minnesota    

Carlos Gomez - Missed 2 games (calf injury).
    
NY Yankees    

Edwar Ramirez - Recalled from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA).
    
Philadelphia    

T.J. Bohn - Optioned to Lehigh Valley (AAA).
Shane Victorino - Missed 14 games (strained right calf).
Oscar Robles - Claimed off waivers from the San Diego Padres.
    
San Diego    

Mauro Zarate - Outrighted to Portand (AAA).
    
Texas    

Chris Shelton - Contract purchased from Oklahoma (AAA).
Jason Botts - Designated for assignment by the Texas Rangers.
Brandon Boggs - Recalled from Oklahoma (AAA).
Hank Blalock - Hamstring, 15-day DL (retroactive to April 26th).
    
Washington    

Ray King - Refused outright assignment and became a free agent.

 Short Stops Around the Majors for April 29, 2008
  • Curtis Granderson went 2-for-3 with a double, home run, 3 runs scored and 2 walks, and Placido Polanco added 4 hits and 2 runs as the Tigers beat the Yankees, 6-4. Gary Sheffield hit a 2 run homer for Detroit, and Shelley Duncan reached base 4 times, doubled, and scored twice for New York.
  • Adrian Beltre went 2-for-2 with 3 walks and a tie-breaking 3-run home run in the 9th inning to lead the Mariners to a 7-2 win over the Indians. Brad Wilkerson had 3 hits and a walk, Jose Vidro doubled twice and drove in 2 runs, and Carlos Silva allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings for Seattle.
  • Jon Lester pitched one-hit ball for 8 scoreless innings, and Kevin Youkilis finally got to Roy Halladay with an RBI walk-off single in the 9th inning as the Red Sox edged the Blue Jays, 1-0. Halladay allowed just the one run on 5 hits in the 8 2/3 inning complete game for Toronto.
  • Andre Ethier reached base 4 times and scored 3 runs, and Jeff Kent had 2 hits and 3 RBI including a game winning base knock with 2 outs in the 9th inning to help the Dodgers beat the Marlins, 7-6. Jorge Cantu had 3 hits, and Jeremy Hermida collected 2 hits and 2 RBI for Florida.
  • Mark Grudzielanek went 4-for-6 with 3 doubles, Mark Teahen singled, tripled, walked and drove in 3, and Jose Guillen reached base 3 times, homered and drove in 5 runs as the Royals defeated the Rangers, 9-5.
  • Boof Bonser gave up just one run while striking out 8 in 7 innings, and Jason Kubel hit a 2-run home run as the Twins held off the White Sox, 3-1.
  • Miguel Tejada had 2 hits and scored twice, and Geoff Blum doubled and drove in 3 as the Astros upset the Diamondbacks, 6-4. Conor Jackson homered and drove in 3, and Max Scherzer made his major league debut by striking out 7 in 4 1/3 perfect innings of relief for Arizona.
  • Chris Iannetta walked, doubled, homered, and scored twice, and Aaron Cook did not allow an earned run over 7 innings of work as the Rockies edged Tim Lincecum and the Giants, 3-2. Troy Tulowitzki had to leave the game with a strained left quad.
  • Cole Hamels struck out 6 over 7 1/3 strong innings, and Carlos Ruiz singled, doubled, knocked in 2 runs, and scored 2 runs as the Phillies beat the Padres, 7-4. Scott Hairston doubled, homered twice, had 3 RBI, and scored 3 runs for San Diego. Greg Maddux was denied his 350th win for at least one more night.
  • Aubrey Huff reached base 4 times, hit a 2-run home run, and scored 2 times, and Garrett Olson gave Baltimore 6 2/3 solid innings as the Orioles snapped the Rays winning streak, 7-4.
  • Ryan Zimmerman went 3-for-4 with a double, home run, and 3 RBI, and Tim Redding yielded just 2 runs on 4 hits over 6 innings to lead the Nationals to a 6-3 win over the Braves. Atlanta's Tom Glavine pitched 6 strong innings but did not figure in the decision.
  • Jose Reyes went 3-for-3 with 3 walks and a triple, and David Wright delivered a bases loaded single in the last of the 11th inning to give the Mets a 5-4 walk-off win over the Pirates. Johan Santana gave up just 2 solo home runs while striking out 7 in 5 2/3 innings for New York.
  • Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart each had 3 hits, and Hall, Cameron, and Prince Fielder drove in 2 runs apiece as the Brewers slugged out a 10-7 win over the Cubs. Mark DeRosa was on base 3 times and scored 2 runs for Chicago.
  • Joel Pineiro pitched one-hit ball over 7 scoreless innings, Skip Schumaker went 4-for-5, and Rick Ankiel went 3-for-5 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI as the Cardinals roughed up Johnny Cueto and the Reds, 7-2. Troy Glaus also had 2 hits and 3 RBI for St. Louis.
  • Joe Saunders tossed 8 shutout innings, and the young Brandon Wood singled, walked and scored as the Angels blanked the A's, 2-0. Oakland's Greg Smith pitched an 8 inning, complete game 3-hitter despite taking the loss.

Tuesday's Scoreboard

Padres
Phillies

R
4
7

H
5
12

E
0
0


Mariners
Indians

R
7
2

H
15
8

E
0
2


Pirates
Mets

R
4
5

H
8
9

E
1
1


Tigers
Yankees

R
6
4

H
11
8

E
1
0


Braves
Nationals

R
3
6

H
8
10

E
1
0


Rays
Orioles

R
4
7

H
8
10

E
0
0


Dodgers
Marlins

R
7
6

H
14
9

E
2
0


Blue Jays
Red Sox

R
0
1

H
2
5

E
0
0


Brewers
Cubs

R
10
7

H
17
11

E
2
1


Royals
Rangers

R
9
5

H
14
10

E
1
0


Reds
Cardinals

R
2
7

H
3
15

E
2
0


White Sox
Twins

R
1
3

H
7
7

E
1
0


Astros
Diamondbacks

R
6
4

H
9
7

E
0
0


Athletics
Angels

R
0
2

H
4
3

E
0
0


Rockies
Giants

R
3
2

H
8
10

E
1
1

 
Wednesday's Probable Pitchers

Away

Home

Time (ET)

Away Probable

Home Probable

White Sox

Twins

1:10 p.m.

Masset (0-0)

Blackburn (1-1)

Pirates

Mets

1:10 p.m.

Gorzelanny (1-3)

Perez (2-1)

Reds

Cardinals

1:15 p.m.

Harang (1-3)

Looper (3-1)

Astros

D-Backs

3:40 p.m.

Chacon (0-0)

Johnson (1-1)

Rockies

Giants

3:45 p.m.

Jimenez (1-2)

Sanchez (2-1)

Braves

Nationals

4:35 p.m.

Jurrjens (3-2)

Hill (0-0)

Tigers

Yankees

7:05 p.m.

Bonderman (1-2)

Pettitte (3-2)

Padres

Phillies

7:05 p.m.

Young (1-2)

Moyer (1-1)

Mariners

Indians

7:05 p.m.

Washburn (1-3)

Lee (4-0)