In freak out move #1
of the 2008 baseball season, Tigers
Manager Jim Leyland announced that the team will undergo ‘drastic’ lineup
changes for Monday May 5^th, 2008. Of course, not one to go against
his word, Leyland and the
Tigers designated OBP machine Jacque
Jones for assignment. To take his spot on the roster, the Tigers called up
24 year old Matt
Joyce from Toledo.

Fortunate for the Tigers brass, the
Cubs are on the hook for part of the $5 million contract Jones is owed for
the 2008. I am not sure this makes the major mistake of bringing Jones in any
less of one, but my glass is half full today.

It will be interesting to see what else the Tigers do
leading up to their game against the Yankees this evening. In 8 epic games
since returning from a recurring should injury, Gary
Sheffield has managed to decrease his numbers across the board, including a
strikeout rate that has dropped from 1 every 6.4 plate appearances to 1 every
4.3.

As a team, the aging Tigers are struggling. The
unsustainable statistics that carried the Tigers in 2007, such as Magglio
Ordonez’s +.110 OPS and Placido
Palanco’s +.038 OBP have been culprits offensively.

The pitching staff has also not been without blame for the
Tigers poor start. In 2007, Tiger’s starters had an ERA of 0.05 higher then the
American League average. This year the ERA sits at 1.11 higher then the AL average. The bullpen,
as most assumed, has struggled; however it has moved up the rankings in
comparison to their league mates despite being 0.06 worse then in 2007.

What is next for the Tigers? Our very own Bill Baer wrote
a series asking ‘what’s next?’ Baer
asserted that the Tigers needed to acquire bullpen help. However at this point,
it appears the Tigers need more then just some bullpen help, and would benefit
from inserting some young blood into an otherwise extremely old lineup.

Additionally, if Sheffield
is heading to the disabled list (which I am going to officially speculate
upon), could the Tigers be a nice fit for Barry
Bonds? If drastic changes are on
the agenda, there is reason to believe that a move such as signing the hated
Barry is in the horizon.

Mike Emeigh, at Baseball Think Factory, provides a good rundown of the first three round for the upcoming June Amateur Draft:

First round

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. San Francisco Giants
6. Florida Marlins
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. Chicago White Sox
9. Washington Nationals
10. Houston Astros
11. Texas Rangers
12. Oakland Athletics
13. St. Louis Cardinals
14. Minnesota Twins
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Milwaukee Brewers
17. Toronto Blue Jays
18. New York Mets (from Atlanta Braves, compensation for Tom Glavine)
19. Chicago Cubs
20. Seattle Mariners
21. Detroit Tigers
22. New York Mets
23. San Diego Padres
24. Philadelphia Phillies
25. Colorado Rockies
26. Arizona Diamondbacks
27. Minnesota Twins (from LA Angels of Anaheim, compensation for Torii Hunter)
28. New York Yankees
29. Cleveland Indians
30. Boston Red Sox

Supplemental 1st round

31. Minnesota Twins (Hunter)
32. Milwaukee Brewers (Francisco Cordero to Cincinnati)
33. New York Mets (Glavine)
34. Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Rowand to SF)
35. Milwaukee Brewers (Scott Linebrink to Chicago White Sox)
36. Kansas City Royals (David Riske to Milwaukee)
37. San Francisco Giants (Pedro Feliz to Philadelphia)
38. Houston Astros (Trever Miller to Tampa Bay)
39. St. Louis Cardinals (Troy Percival to Tampa Bay)
40. Atlanta Braves (Ron Mahay to Kansas City)
41. Chicago Cubs (Jason Kendall to Milwaukee)
42. San Diego Padres (Doug Brocail to Houston)
43. Arizona Diamondbacks (Livan Hernandez to Minnesota)
44. New York Yankees (Luis Vizcaino to Colorado)
45. Boston Red Sox (Eric Gagne to Milwaukee)
46. San Diego Padres (Mike Cameron to Milwaukee)

Second round

47. Tampa Bay Rays
48. Pittsburgh Pirates
49. Kansas City Royals
50. Baltimore Orioles
51. Philadelphia Phillies (from San Francisco Giants, compensation for Rowand)
52. Florida Marlins
53. Milwaukee Brewers (from Cincinnati Reds, compensation for Cordero)
54. Milwaukee Brewers (from Chicago White Sox, compensation for Linebrink)
55. Washington Nationals
56. Houston Astros
57. Texas Rangers
58. Oakland Athletics
59. St. Louis Cardinals
60. Minnesota Twins
61. Los Angeles Dodgers
62. Milwaukee Brewers
63. Toronto Blue Jays
64. Atlanta Braves
65. Chicago Cubs
66. Seattle Mariners
67. Detroit Tigers
68. New York Mets
69. San Diego Padres
70. Atlanta Braves (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Joshua Fields)
71. Philadelphia Phillies
72. Colorado Rockies
73. Arizona Diamondbacks
74. LA Angels of Anaheim
75. New York Yankees
76. Cleveland Indians
77. Boston Red Sox

Third round

78. Tampa Bay Rays
79. Pittsburgh Pirates
80. Kansas City Royals
81. Baltimore Orioles
82. San Francisco Giants
83. Florida Marlins
84. Cincinnati Reds
85. Boston Red Sox (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Hunter Morris)
86. Chicago White Sox
87. Washington Nationals
88. Houston Astros
89. Texas Rangers
90. Oakland Athletics
91. St. Louis Cardinals
92. Minnesota Twins
93. Los Angeles Dodgers
94. Milwaukee Brewers
95. Toronto Blue Jays
96. Atlanta Braves
97. Chicago Cubs
98. Seattle Mariners
99. Detroit Tigers
100. New York Mets
101. San Diego Padres
102. Philadelphia Phillies
103. Colorado Rockies
104. Arizona Diamondbacks
105. LA Angels of Anaheim
106. New York Yankees
107. Cleveland Indians
108. Boston Red Sox

Supplemental 3rd

109. Philadelphia Phillies (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Brandon Workman)
110. Houston Astros (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Derek Dietrich)
111. San Diego Padres (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Tommy Toledo)
112. LA Angels of Anaheim (compensation for failure to sign 2007 draftee Matt Harvey)

Note that the compensatory picks for the Braves (at 70) and the Red Sox (at 85) have changed. Originally those picks were 18 positions higher, but MLB reinterpreted the draft rules surrounding the awarding of compensatory picks for failure to sign high draftees.

My quest for Tim Beckham's numbers was resolved when Jamie Cassady, Assistant Principal/Athletic Director for Griffin High School and  Region 4 AAAA Secretary, sent me the stats for the highly touted 19-year-old:

Games - 24
 
.500/.782/.795

AB: 78
Runs: 40
Hits: 39
Doubles: 9
Triples: 3
HR: 5
Total bases: 62
Walks: 22
Strikeouts: 5
Sacrifice flies: 4
Stolen bases: 16
RBI: 31

The Griffin Bears still have two games two play in the regular season, then the playoffs will also add to Beckham's numbers…stay tuned!!

Check out this very good article on the shortstop.  Excerpt:

Arizona    

Orlando Hudson - Missed 1 game (hamstring).
    
Boston    

Coco Crisp - Missed 2 games (sore left knee).
David Ortiz - Knee injury, day-to-day.
    
Los Angeles Anaheim    

Chone Figgins - Hamstring, day-to-day.
Sean Rodriguez - Recalled from Salt Lake (AAA).
Dustin Moseley - Forearm injury, 15-day DL.
    
Minnesota    

Scott Baker - Right groin, day-to-day.
    
NY Mets    

Brian Schneider - Missed 8 games (thumb injury).
    
NY Yankees    

Darrell Rasner - Contract purchased from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA).
Ian Kennedy - Optioned to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA).
    
Pittsburgh    

Sean Burnett - Contract purchased from Nashville (AAA).
Evan Meek - Designated for assignment by the Pittsburgh Pirates.
    
San Diego    

Khalil Greene - Eye injury, day-to-day.
    
St. Louis    

Anthony Reyes - Optioned to Memphis (AAA).
Mike Parisi - Recalled from Memphis (AAA).
    
Tampa Bay    

Scott Kazmir - Missed 30 games (strained left elbow).
Justin Ruggiano - Optioned to Durham (AAA).

Ryan Howard had a .174/.300/.359 line following April 27's getaway game in Pittsburgh. Six games later after two series at home against the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, Howard's line got slightly worse as it now sits at .167/.294/.351, and he added eight more strikeouts to boot. Things don't appear to be improving at all for him.

His batting average on balls in play (BABiP) sits at an abnormally low .206, which speaks to unluckiness, but his batted ball percentages are haywire as well, which is likely a big factor in deflating his BABiP. From Howard's page on FanGraphs:



As you can see, Howard is about 5% below his career LD% and 4% above his career GB%. Considering that he's facing an infield shift most of the time he's at the plate, it's hard to get a ground ball base hit, so subsequently, an increase in GB% translates almost exactly into an increase in outs. Howard's forte is the home run as well, and home runs aren't accomplished by hitting grounders.

In last week's report, I cited Howard's slugging on different types of pitches using Josh Kalk's player cards. He hadn't gotten a single hit on a sinker, slider, or a cutter. That hasn't changed. Despite seeing 12, 48, and 32 of them respectively, Howard has still yet to log a hit on those pitches, and all nine of his extra-base hits have come on fastballs.

It doesn't appear that Howard is taking advice from anyone, either. Manager Charlie Manuel — a noted hitting guru — suggested he move up in the batter's box, and Howard flatly refused even though he admitted he was uncomfortable at the plate.

Without further ado, let's see his pace and how he matches up against the game's top starting pitchers in strikeouts and homers.



Howard is on pace to match his 2007 strikeout total given 600 plate appearances, and will shatter it if he gets 650.

Walks are the only thing keeping Howard's on-base percentage even at a Pedro Feliz (read: low) level. He will most likely set a career high in walks, as he drew 108 and 107 in 2006 and '07, respectively.

Major League Baseball Strikeout Leaders

Johan Santana, NYM: 46.1 IP, 47 K

Jake Peavy, SDP: 48.2 IP, 46 K

Ryan Howard, PHI: 114 AB, 45 K

Tim Lincecum, SFG: 42.1 IP, 45 K

Felix Hernandez, SEA: 50.1 IP, 44 K

Edinson Volquez, CIN: 35.1 IP, 42 K

Cole Hamels, PHI: 49.1 IP, 41 K

Aaron Harang, CIN: 48.1 IP, 41 K

On an equally hilarious note, twelve starting pitchers in Major League Baseball have allowed more home runs than Howard himself has hit. Teammate Brett Myers leads the pack with eleven HR allowed, compared to Howard's six.

• Gil Meche allowed just 4 hits over 7 scoreless innings, and Miguel Olivo homered and scored twice as the Royals blanked the Indians, 2-0. Aaron Laffey took the loss for Cleveland despite allowing just one unearned run over 7 innings.
• Matt Stairs doubled twice and drove in 2 runs, and Roy Halladay gave up just one earned run on 3 hits in 7 1/3 innings as the Blue Jays edged the White Sox, 4-3.
• Kelly Johnson went 4-for-6 with 3 doubles and 2 RBI, Mark Kotsay reached base 4 times, scored 3 runs, and drove in 3, and Chipper Jones singled, doubled, homered and drove in 5 runs as the Braves knocked around the Reds, 14-7. Adam Dunn had 2 hits and drove in 2 runs for Cincinnati.
• Pat Burrell doubled twice, walked twice, and drove in 2 runs, and Ryan Howard walked 3 times and scored the winning run on a San Francisco error in the bottom of the 9th inning as the Phillies beat the Giants, 6-5. Rich Aurilia doubled twice, homered, and knocked in 3 runs for San Francisco.
• Lance Berkman singled, doubled twice, homered and had 4 RBI, and Hunter Pence ripped a 2-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the 12th inning as the Astros stunned the Brewers, 8-6. Mike Cameron hit 2 home runs and drove in 4 for Milwaukee.
• Scott Podsednik reached base 3 times, stole 2 bases, and scored twice, and Matt Holliday had 2 hits and 2 RBI to lead the Rockies to a 7-2 win over the Dodgers. Aaron Cook allowed just 2 runs in 7 2/3 innings to run his record to 5-1 for Colorado.
• Greg Smith struck out 10 while allowing just one run on 3 hits over 6 innings, and Jack Cust collected 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI as the A's held off the Rangers, 3-1.
• Adam Kennedy went 2-for-2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI, and Albert Pujols walked, doubled, and drove in 2 to help the Cardinals get by the Cubs, 5-3.
• Derek Jeter collected 4 hits, Bobby Abreu added 3 hits and a walk, and Darrell Rasner gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings as the Yankees swept the series from the Mariners, 8-2. Adrian Beltre had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI for Seattle.
• Dan Uggla doubled twice, homered, drove in 3 runs, and scored 3 runs, and Matt Treanor picked up 2 hits, a walk, and 2 RBI as the Marlins roughed up the Padres, 10-3. Andrew Miller tossed 6 solid innings for Florida.
• Tim Redding allowed just one run over 6 1/3 innings, and five different Washington hitters drove in a run apiece as the Nationals upended the Pirates, 5-2. Adam LaRoche went 3-for-4 with a double, a home run, and 2 RBI for Pittsburgh.
• Kevin Youkilis went 3-for-4 with 2 doubles, a home run, and 4 RBI, and Jon Lester pitched 6 strong innings as the Red Sox spoiled Scott Kazmir's season debut and defeated the Rays, 7-3.
• Joe Mauer had 2 hits and 2 RBI, and Nick Punto drove in 2 runs of his own as the Twins overcame a 6-run 1st inning by Detroit to go on and beat the Tigers, 7-6. Curtis Granderson was on base 3 times for Detroit and hit his 5th homer of the year.
• Gary Matthews Jr. homered and walked 3 times, Torii Hunter blasted a 3-run shot, and Robb Quinlan added a 2-run big fly as the Angels nipped the Orioles, 6-5. Aubrey Huff went 3-for-4, and Melvin Mora had 3 hits, scored 3 runs, and hit a solo home run for Baltimore.
• Jose Reyes singled, walked, stole a base and had 2 RBI, and Johan Santana went 6 solid innings for New York, but it was a 9th inning error by Arizona that allowed the Mets to score 3 times and defeat the Diamondbacks, 5-2. Chris Snyder hit a double and a triple, and Dan Haren allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits in 6 innings of work for Arizona.

Sunday's Scoreboard