As per usual, it is time to get ready for my weekly segment on ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show. Today we toss around the following…

• MLB is looking into why teams made no offers to Bonds … what do you think and will he play this season?
• Derrick Turnbow was released by Milwaukee and the Mets may be interested … Is he worth taking a flyer on or is it time to stick a fork in him?
• If you are Phillies fan, should you be worried about Ryan Howard?
• The first month of the season is over with, who was the most surprising team and who was the most disappointing team?
• New weekly feature - John Brattain's top 5 teams

MLB is looking into why teams made no offers to Bonds … what do you think and will he play this season?

Well, I have made no bones about my feelings regarding collusion toward Barry Bonds. I find it laughable that GM's like J.P. Ricciardi are talking about integrity while at the same time most likely being involved in an illegal act that may cost a team a chance at the post season. It’s expected that players do everything in their power (within the rules) to win so why isn’t the same standard applied to all? If a GM chooses not to do something preferring to lose games then that’s a huge breach of faith to the fan base. There were rumours in 1920 that the White Sox were trying to throw the season–well, to me Ricciardi is, in effect, indirectly throwing the season. The Jays have scary good pennant level pitching yet Ricciardi refuses to make the most logical upgrade to the offense.

What many forget regarding collusion that the fans were very recently colluded against by the owners, players, commissioner, union and the media. Since the fans were outside the collective bargaining agreement they had no recourse. The media didn’t report on it because doing so would reveal their complicity.

I am speaking of course of performance-enhancing drugs in the game. The owners and union told us repeatedly that steroids were not a problem in the sport. The media faithfully parroted the company line despite what was going on before their very eyes. Back in 2001, I could see that a number of players looked suspiciously like roiders and I wasn’t even a regular on the beat. We were told that there were a few, very few isolated bad apples and the record-shattering performances occurring before our very eyes were accomplished naturally. When a player stood up and said that steroids were rampant, everybody closed ranks and questioned their integrity or grasp on reality. When a reporter (Steve Wilstein) ’spilled the juice’ on Mark McGwire’s androstenedione usage life became miserable for him. It took five years and the BALCO raid to finally shed light on how epidemic it was within the game.      

Therefore, I have little difficulty in asserting collusion in this instance. The thing is … law-enforcement looks for three things when assessing whether a person may have committed a crime–means, motive and opportunity.

Bud Selig has all three of these elements:

Means: he’s commissioner with a lot of clout with ownership–plus he’s done a lot of favours for various owners and they realize they owe Selig. Motive: getting back at Bonds for breaking his friend Hank Aaron’s record while being a constant, visible reminder of his own failure in addressing performance-enhancing drugs. Opportunity: Bonds is a free agent who is 43 years old and with both legal (although there’s almost zero chance he’ll stand trial this season) and recent health issues. These provide a smokescreen giving Selig and the clubs plausible deniability. During the collusive period under Peter Ueberroth, it was the game’s alleged poverty and threats of bankruptcy (coupled with cooked books) that provided the cover/deniability.

Selig has been part of three confirmed collusions–the one when Peter Ueberroth was commissioner (and Selig was referred to as a “leading proselytiser” of the movement), the one when the clubs paid the players a modest settlement after the most recent CBA was ratified and finally the aforementioned one regarding PED use within the sport. The best indicator of future behaviour is past behaviour so draw your own conclusions.

I don’t think Bonds plays this year–Selig will be quite content to pay treble damages if found guilty plus he feels public opinion regarding Bonds is such that he’ll be given a pass for his unofficial banning of Barry Lamar.

Derrick Turnbow was released by Milwaukee and the Mets may be interested … Is he worth taking a flyer on or is it time to stick a fork in him?

I don’t think he’s done since he has a K/9 of 10.9 since Opening Day 2006–he still throws hard. However, his ERA since then is 6.13 and his BB/9 is a nasty 6.75; he’s only enjoyed one good season (2005). Why he has never developed any kind of consistent command is beyond me. Right now, the Phillies have the second best bullpen in the NL and adding his live arm might not be a bad idea. His 13 BB/6.3 IP would require that he be given garbage innings until he can get his BB/9 down to at least 4.5. I definitely would not use him in the middle of an inning with men on base.

Part of me wonders if he’s injured. The thing is–if the Phillies wish to add him it would be as insurance. A lot would depend on whether Turnbow would accept a role where he’d be utilized as a mop-up reliever until he demonstrates that he can throw strikes on a consistent basis.    

If you are Phillies fan, should you be worried about Ryan Howard?

Not yet–last year on this day Howard was batting .198/.378/.396 with five HR; he’s still drawing his share of walks and the home run power is still there. It’s just another slow start and I expect he’ll heat up with the weather.  

The first month of the season is over with, who was the most surprising team and who was the most disappointing team?

Well, to me there have been three truly surprising clubs this year in light of preseason expectations: The Florida Marlins, the Oakland A’s and the St. Louis Cardinals. The five disappointments from my point of view are the Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays. I’m excluding the Rays since their solid play early isn’t all that shocking–to me. I predicted they’d make life miserable for the AL East while playing better than .500 ball and are fulfilling prognostications.

Now, let’s knock these lists down–first, the Fish, Cards and A’s. All three were said to be in rebuilding mode and the A‘s and Marlins traded off significant talent for prospects. That being the case, we can knock off the Cards since they’re just two seasons removed from a World Series championship and still had significant talent on the roster. They’re not a small revenue team and play in a new ballpark hence a rebuild can be done more quickly. This leaves us with the Marlins and A’s.    

Even rebuilding teams will put together some hot streaks–the Marlins are doing it with power and a lights-out bullpen. These are subject to wild variation over the course of a season so their run is most likely an anomaly. The A’s however have the top rotation (3.31 ERA), bullpen (2.68 ERA), in the loop and are third in runs scored (161) and OBP (.339)–nobody, and I mean nobody saw that coming. Therefore the A’s are my pick as the surprise team of 2008.

Many picked the Toronto Blue Jays to finish behind Tampa Bay (I was not among them, hence my disappointment) and Seattle, despite a terrific rotation and snappy defense were expected to struggle scoring runs–however I don’t think anybody thought they’d be well below .500 at this point. Consider them mild disappointments at the moment. Like the Blue Jays, I felt the Reds were (and may still be) a dark horse team so they’re disappointing from my own point of view.

This leaves the AL Central’s Indians and Tigers.

Both of these clubs looked as if they were going to slug it out atop the division all year (and probably still will) however the Tigers picked up an Alex Rodriguez-level bat in Miguel Cabrera to add to an already potent lineup. When you factor in that after 34 games they have suffered through a seven and five game losing streak (accounting for 60 percent of their losses) I would have to pick the Tigers as the biggest disappointment to date–if course being in last place doesn’t help either.

New weekly feature - John Brattain's top 5 teams

Why was I not consulted about this! I’m going to have to talk to my agent after I take him for his walk. Be forewarned Mike, he’ll lay a major whomping on your leg. Still–if I gotta, I gotta…

Just to make sure this generates maximum controversy I am going to go with my strength and do something very, very dumb. I will come up with my own system for the ’power rankings’ and let the chips fall where they may. The easiest thing would be to chart wins and losses but where’s the fun in that? I will check all playoff-at-this-point-in-time teams and see where they are currently ranked league wide in six categories: runs scored, total bases, OPS+, Pythagorean W-L, starters ERA, relievers ERA and ERA+. I will add up their relative placements (1st, 2nd 3rd) and tally the numbers–whichever team has the highest aggregate placing will be atop the standings, followed by the second, third, fourth etc.

The envelope please! Drum roll! … 5. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Boston Red Sox
3. Oakland A’s
2. Chicago Cubs
1. Arizona Diamondbacks    

Here’s the methodology/breakdown for my power rankings this week (riff from “Pyscho”)…

League ranking (OPS+, ERA+ and Pythag are versus candidates not league*)

Team     Runs ToB OPS+ Pyg  ERA (st)ERA (pen)ERA+ TOTD-Backs   2    3   4    1    5     1        1      17 Cubs      1    1   1    1    3     8        3      18 A's       4    8   3    1    1     1        1      19Red Sox   1    1   1    2    4    12        2      23Cards     6    7   2    2    2     5        4      28Angels    2    2   2    3    6    13        3      31Phils     4    2   6    3    9     2        5      31Fish      9    4   3    4   15     4        6      45Twins    13   12   4    4   11     4        4      52 

*Why? Because I'm lazy–that's why!

Best Regards

John

Roger Clemens is finally apologizing. He's coming clean and laying it all on the line for us to see. Or, rather, his spokesman is:

Even though these articles contain many false accusations and mistakes, I
need to say that I have made mistakes in my personal life for which I am
sorry. I
have apologized to my family and apologize to my fans. Like everyone, I have
flaws. I have sometimes made choices which have not been right.

Uh, what? I didn't understand this approach when Jason Giambi used it, and I don't understand it now. Like, why are you sorry? You made mistakes and have flaws. So what? As you correctly note, so does everyone else. That's the whole “being human” thing in action. Seriously, if this is the entire story, then there's no need for apologies.

As it stands, Clemens sounds like a guy desperately fearful of telling the truth. His statement reminds me of something Angela from The Office once said:

Certain events have transpired, and I've thought about certain things,
and I’m sorry for the way those certain events transpired, and I would
just like to make some changes about certain things, and certain
situations, and certain accountants…

Would it kill you to say what's on your mind? At the very least, it might make you seem a little more human. Last time I checked, that's not a bad thing…

Victor Martinez will miss a few games with a neck injury.  He was
batting .347/.380/.411  (Bill Richardson/BDD)

Arizona    

Orlando Hudson - Hamstring, day-to-day.
    
Chicago Cubs    

Aramis Ramirez - Missed 3 games (left wrist injury).
    
Chicago White Sox    

Joe Crede - Missed 1 game (headache).
Adam Russell - Optioned to Charlotte (AAA).
Alexei Ramirez - Missed 4 games (personal reasons).
    
Cincinnati    

Scott Sauerbeck - Released by the Cincinnati Reds.
    
Cleveland    

Victor Martinez - Neck injury, day-to-day.
Bronson Sardinha - Signed by the Cleveland Indians to a minor league contract.
Ben Francisco - Recalled from Buffalo (AAA).
Jason Michaels - Designated for assignment by the Cleveland Indians.
    
Los Angeles    

Rafael Furcal - Back injury, day-to-day.
    
NY Yankees    

Alberto Gonzalez - Optioned to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA).
Wilson Betemit - Missed 20 games (pink eye).
    
Pittsburgh    

Tom Gorzelanny - Back injury, day-to-day.
    
San Diego    

Khalil Greene - Missed 1 game (eye injury).
    
San Francisco    

Ray Durham - Hamstring, day-to-day.

During last night’s Phillies-Diamondbacks game in Arizona,
starter Adam Eaton was mediocre, allowing six runs in four innings of work. Despite
the poor performance, his night essentially hinged on one at-bat, and
unfortunately for Eaton, it didn’t work out in his favor. What, exactly, did
Adam Eaton do that was so noteworthy?

With the bases loaded and one out, Eaton could see light at
the end of the tunnel when Randy Johnson stepped to the plate. Augie Ojeda had
just flied out to shallow center field and couldn’t get the runner on third
home, and with the pitcher up, Eaton had a great chance of getting out of the
inning without surrendering the Phillies’ slim 2-1 lead. Instead, Eaton walked
the 6’10” pitcher on four pitches.

To put that in perspective, only one player in Major League
history is taller: the Washington’s Jon Rauch. Two others are equally as tall
as Johnson: San Diego’s Chris Young and the Mets’ Eric Hillman, whose brief
Major League career started in 1992 and ended in 1994.

Randy Johnson’s strike zone is freakin’ huge, but exactly
how huge is it? We know home plate is 17 inches wide, but according to John
Walsh’s excellent data-driven article on the strike zone:

It appears from this
data that the umpires' strike zone is about two inches too wide on each side
[for right-handed hitters], compared to the rulebook strike zone.

So, generally speaking, Johnson’s strike zone is about 21
inches wide. To find how tall his strike zone is, we could find out the space
between the letters on his jersey and his knees, but since I don’t have the
privilege of being in his presence with measuring tape, I’ll cite Walsh’s article
again. He has a table labeled “Actual vs. Rulebook Strike Zone Dimensions
(inches).” For right-handed batters (RHB), we see that the upper limit of the
strike zone is about 42.7 inches, and the lower limit is 21.6 inches. Subtract
the latter from the former and we have a strike zone that is 21.1 inches tall –
essentially as tall as it is wide; nearly a true square. However, since that
data is taking the average of a lot of data for left-handed batters, 21.1
inches is not representative of Johnson’s height.

According to this chart on Baseball Almanac, the average
player is about 6 feet even. Johnson is 6’11” so a rough estimate would put
Johnson’s height as adding about 4 inches to the vertical strike zone.

Subtract the upper limit (42.7 inches) from the lower limit
(21.6 inches) and we get 21.1 inches. Add our rough estimate of The Big Unit’s
extra 4 inches to it for 25.1 inches. If we multiply that by the width of the
strike zone, 21 inches, we get 527 square inches – the area of Johnson’s strike
zone. How did Adam Eaton miss? According to MLB Gameday, Eaton was only close
with one pitch:

That’s just incredible. And to add insult to injury, after
Johnson walked and Chris Young drove in a run on a ground-out to shortstop Eric
Bruntlett, Stephen Drew hit a three-run home run. If Eaton gets the easiest out
in the line-up, either the game is tied or the D-Backs take a slight 3-2 lead,
presumably.

Just for fun, I looked through The Big Unit’s play index and
found that of his 15 career walks, four have been on four pitches:

July 16, 2002 @ Giants: Top of the fourth inning, one out. Walked
by Russ Ortiz; Dellucci to 3B; Moeller to 2B.

July 20, 2004 vs Giants: Bottom of the fifth inning, two
outs. Walked by Jerome Williams.

August 20, 2004 vs Reds: Bottom of the third inning, no
outs. Walked by Luke Hudson.

May 6, 2008 vs Phillies: Bottom of the fourth inning, one
out. Walked by Adam Eaton; Upton Scores; Reynolds to 3B; Montero to 2B

Of the three other pitchers 6’10” or taller, Chris Young is
the only one to have also been walked on four straight pitches: August 15, 2007
by Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez.

Overall, there's not much you can actually learn from this (besides that I have too much free time), but it was just one of those amazing feats where a pitcher is so inept at hitting the strike zone that he walks a 6'11″ hitter on four pitches.

Even though he’s no longer a Phillie, I can’t help but root
for Gavin Floyd. Sure, he was mediocre in his 110-ish innings in Philadelphia,
but then again, what Phillies pitcher wasn’t between 2004 and 2006 besides,
perhaps, Brett Myers? Besides, I really want the egg on the faces of the
Phillies’ front office people because of how awful that Freddy Garcia deal
turned out (they didn’t bother to have him get a physical despite obvious
warning flags). Snarkiness aside, I think we all need to hesitate before
crowning Floyd as The Next Big Thing. He is not, as a SportsCenter (or was it
Baseball Tonight?) anchor claimed, “Growing up before our eyes.”

There’s no question he’s pitched beautifully so far this
season, and he may very well have the prettiest curveball in baseball, and he’s
oh-so-close to finally getting a no-hitter… but his BABIP is a lush .174, his
strikeout rate (4.3 per nine) is alarmingly low for someone with as many out
pitches as he has, and his walk rate is too high (4.1 per nine, and the reason
why he managed to allow a run while maintaining a no-hitter last night against
the Twins).

An average BABIP is in the .300 area, so Floyd’s .174 is
just screaming for a regression to the mean. Despite a huge increase in fly
balls (career average 40.5%; 53.4% in ’08), his HR/FB rate has actually managed
to drop to 6.3% compared to his career average 14.2%. Additionally, among
pitchers who have allowed 45% or more fly balls, Floyd has the lowest BABIP. The only
other pitchers under .200 are Scott Olsen (.197) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (.189).

Another point to consider is that Floyd’s first two starts
were against the Detroit Tigers before their offense started clicking
(remember, they started 2-10 and scored 33 runs in those 12 games). Similarly,
his two most recent starts have been against the offensively-challenged
Minnesota Twins, who average a paltry 4.03 runs per game; he also faced the
Orioles and their second-worst offense at 3.94 RPG, and the Yankees’ 8^th-best
offense at 4.44 RPG.

Enjoy what Floyd is doing and hope for more, but don’t be
disappointed when he crashes down to Earth and starts putting up production
more closely aligned with his 2007 season. There’s nothing in Floyd’s repertoire
that signifies that this is a new Gavin: his pitch speeds are the same and
there’s very little variance in the amount he’s using particular pitches.
Fortunately for the White Sox, they don’t need to rely solely on Floyd to
succeed in the surprisingly weak AL Central.

Image credit to the Associated Press via Yahoo! Sports.

• Jair Jurrjens struck out 8 while allowing just one run over 6 innings, and Mark Kotsay and Chipper Jones each homered and drove in 2 runs as the Braves defeated the Padres, 5-3. Brian Giles went 4-for-5 with 2 runs scored for San Diego.
• Jhonny Peralta homered, drove in 2 runs and scored 2 runs, and David Dellucci hit a pinch-hit 3-run home run off Joba Chamberlain in the 8th inning to lead the Indians to a stunning 5-3 win over the Yankees. Hideki Matsui went 3-for-3 with a walk for New York.
• Akinori Iwamura had 2 hits and 2 RBI, and Eric Hinske doubled and homered as the Rays snapped the Blue Jays winning streak, 5-4. Lyle Overbay had 2 hits, 2 RBI, and a walk for Toronto.
• Scott Olsen pitched 2-hit ball over 8 2/3 scoreless innings, Luis Gonzalez went 4-for-4, and Mike Jacobs hit a 2-run home run as the Marlins blanked the Brewers, 3-0.
• Garret Anderson doubled, homered, and drove in 5 runs, and 5 different  Los Angeles hitters collected 2 hits apiece as the Angels knocked off the Royals, 5-3.
• Ryan Ludwick went 4-for-4 with 2 doubles and a walk, and Braden Looper kept St. Louis in the game with his arm and his bat as the Cardinals edged the Rockies, 6-5. Chris Iannetta doubled, homered, and drove in 3 runs for Colorado.
• Tim Wakefield allowed just 2 hits over 8 scoreless innings, and Manny Ramirez went 3-for-5 with a home run to help the Red Sox shut out the Tigers, 5-0. Kevin Cash also had 3 hits for Boston.
• Nate McLouth went 3-for-5 with 2 home runs and 3 RBI, Freddy Sanchez reached base 4 times, scored 2 runs, and drove in 2 more, and Adam LaRoche walked twice and hit a 2-run homer as the Pirates doubled up the Giants, 12-6. Rich Aurilia had 3 hits, and Jose Castillo smacked a 3-run home run for Pittsburgh.
• Carlos Zambrano tossed 8 innings of shutout ball, and Ronny Cedeno drove in 2 runs to lead the Cubs to a 3-0 win over the Reds. Aaron Harang pitched 7 solid innings for Cincinnati.
• Lance Berkman went 5-for-5 with 2 doubles and 4 runs scored, and Carlos Lee singled, doubled twice, and drove in 3 as the Astros rallied to squeak past the Nationals, 6-5. Nick Johnson homered and walked 3 times for Washington.
• Gavin Floyd threw a no-hitter for 8 1/3 innings, and Jermaine Dye had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI as the White Sox knocked off the Twins, 7-1. Carlos Quentin added 2 hits and 2 RBI for Chicago.
• Stephen Drew hit a 3-run home run, Chris Young doubled and scored twice, and the Diamondbacks crossed home 5 times in the 4th inning en route to a 6-4 win over the Phillies. Eric Bruntlett doubled, homered, and knocked in 3 runs for Philadelphia.
• Justin Duchscherer gave up just 2 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings, and Frank Thomas went 2-for-3 with a walk and 2 runs scored as the A's defeated the Orioles, 4-2.
• David Murphy and Josh Hamilton each homered and drove in 3 runs, and Sidney Ponson allowed just one run in 7 innings of work as the Rangers routed the Mariners, 10-1. Texas accumulated 10 walks on the evening.
• Blake DeWitt went 3-for-4 with an inside-the-park home run and 4 RBI, and Hong-Chih Kuo struck out 8 over 3 2/3 hitless innings of relief as the Dodgers rallied to beat the Mets for the second consecutive day, 5-4. Ryan Church doubled and homered for New York.

Tuesday's Scoreboard