The Tampa Bay Rays and pitcher Scott Kazmir have agreed on a four-year contract extension. The first three years of the agreement covering 2009, 2010 and 2011 are guaranteed with the team holding an option for the 2012 season. The contract guarantees Kazmir $28.5 million and has a maximum value of approximately $39.5 million.

The 24-year-old Kazmir has a 36-30 career record and a 3.63 earned run average in 100 major league games, 99 starts. He has struck out 628 batters in 580.2 innings, an average of 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 13th best in major league history among pitchers with 500 or more innings. He is the Rays all-time leader in wins, strikeouts, starts and innings. He has recorded 14 games with 10 or more strikeouts.

As per usual, it is time to get ready for my weekly segment on ESPN 1450’s Mike Gill Show. Today we toss around the following…

• We’ve just rounded the quarter pole of the season–what are some of your observations that the average fan might not make?
• Are the Florida Marlins for real?
• Are the Tampa Bay Rays for real?
• Which Florida team is the better of the two?
• What has been the best offseason trade thus far in 2008?
• The legendary and not entirely useful John Brattain Power Rankings

We’ve just rounded the quarter pole of the season–what are some of your observations that the average fan might not make?

The fact that offensive numbers are waaaay down. Part of this may be the result of improved drug testing, but a lot of it has to do with the slow starts by a lot of sluggers: David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard, Ken Griffey Jr, Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Andruw Jones, Vladmir Guerrero, Jim Thome etc.

Other notable items … the amazing starts of Lance Berkman (.392/.470/.790) and Chipper Jones (.415/.475/.683) plus the fact that the NL is out hitting the AL despite the DH (I think the Blue Jays are the great equalizer here).

Are the Florida Marlins for real?

Not yet.

Team       BA  OBP SLG  Runs  HR
Marlins  .265  .329 .456    191    57

If chicks dig the long ball then this is the place to be–they’re below league norms in OBP but are tops in the NL in home runs, SLG and tops in the division in runs scored. They probably have the most ferocious hitting infield–Hanley Ramirez (156 OPS+), Dan Uggla (166 OPS+), Mike Jacobs (133 OPS+) and Jorge Cantu (107 OPS+)–in the game right now and the outfield corners aren‘t shabby either (LF Josh Willingham: .341/.406/.637; RF Jeremy Hermida .310/.360/.484). However, this style of baseball though is prone to slumps. 

Starters ERA: 4.93 (5th /14th)
Bullpen  ERA: 3.17 (2nd/3rd)

The Marlins’ rotation is just what the numbers say–they have four kids in there still finding their way. They’re near the bottom in several pitching categories and while they will improve with experience, chances are good it won’t make much of an impact in 2008. The Fish’s bullpen is a bit of a fluke–they’re right about in the middle of the league in base runners allowed and near the bottom in K/9 … this indicates that their ERA will rise. It does not accurately reflect the quality of relief pitching in that they have enjoyed a lot of luck from their bullpen this year.

Are the Tampa Bay Rays for real?

Quite possibly.

Team     BA  OBP  SLG  Runs   HR
Rays    .259  .330   .393   180     38

The Rays are second in the AL East in runs scored and sixth in the AL and are middle of the pack in both the division and the league in home runs. There are likewise in AVG/OBP/SLG. However, this is likely to improve since several of their key players (Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford and Akinori Iwamura) are off to somewhat slow starts. They are getting solid work from former RotY Eric Hinske (.259/.360/.537) and young catcher Dioner Navarro (.375/.416/.458). Hinske will likely come down to earth a bit but is capable of a solid year–especially if he is fit and he appears to be precisely that. Navarro’s minor league numbers are solid for a backstop and he is at the age where he is likely to develop some power. It would be a stretch to say that he’ll maintain his current pace however a breakout season is not out of the question.

The pitching has been superb. The numbers beside the ERA represent their rank in the division and the AL…

Starters ERA: 4.02 (2nd /5th)
Bullpen ERA:  3.16 (1st/2nd)

What is remarkable about the starting pitching is that most of it has been done without ace Scott Kazmir. It’s a young staff that projects to improve. Despite their relative inexperience, they are league average in walks issued. The bullpen is a mix of veterans with Troy Percival enjoying a comeback at age 38 that is doing solid work and is below league average in giving up walks (3.76 BB/9 IP) and well below average in giving up hits (6.8 H/9 IP) which bodes well for the rest of the year.

I predicted that 2009 would be the Rays coming out party as contenders–it’s entirely possible that it may come a year early. 

Which Florida team is the better of the two?

The Rays.

What has been the best offseason trade thus far in 2008?

I guess that depends on your criteria. For example, probably the best win-win trade would go to the Diamondbacks/A’s for the Danny Haren deal. Haren is 4-2, 3.04 ERA for the Snakes while two of the pitchers received by Oakland are now rotation mainstays (Dana Eveland: 3-3, 3.23 ERA; Greg Smith: 2-2, 3.00 ERA. The Reds/Rangers swap of Edinson “Little Pedro” Volquez (6-1, 1.12 ERA) and Danny Herrera for Josh Hamilton (.301/.357/.552) is serving both clubs well.

In the ‘whoda thunk it?’ department the Mets trading Lastings Milledge to the Nats is serving the Mets well this year as Milledge is struggling while Ryan Church (.324/.385/.561) and Brian Schneider (.321/.391/.370) are off to solid starts. 

In the “addressing a major need” category, give the Phillies props for the Brad Lidge trade–despite being a little too generous with the base on balls has been absolutely dominant thus far in ‘08.

Obviously, the full impact of these and other trades will not be fully known for years. The blockbuster between Detroit and Florida, while not making much of an impact thus far, will have major implications for many seasons to come. The same can be said for the Mets deal for Johan Santana–the Metropolitans aren’t off to the start they had hoped, but Santana, if healthy, will be looked upon as a bit of positive karma after the Tom Seaver/Scott Kazmir debacles. 

If I had to pick just one–it would be the Danny Haren to the A’s. While it has helped Arizona, it launched the Athletics into contention. Billy Beane thus far has won the offseason and it isn’t close. Here is some of the talent they acquired…

Pitcher         W  L   ERA  IP  ERA+Dana Eveland    3  3  3.23 47.1 119Greg Smith      2  2  3.00 45.0 128Joey Devine     3  0  0.60 15.0 639Brett Anderson  5  2  3.43 39.1  A+Gio Gonzalez    0  2  5.18 33.0 PCL (22 year old LHP … first time in AAA)Player                 AVG   OBP   SLG Ryan Sweeney          .279  .343  .349 MLB (23 year old league avg bat in CF)Chris Carter (21)     .237  .327  .526   A+…in 2007            .291  .383  .522   A Aaron Cunningham (22) .316  .341  .447  AA…in 2007            .288  .364  .534  AACarlos Gonzalez (22)  .311  .374  .444 AAA…in 2007            .310  .396  .500 AAA

The legendary and not entirely useful John Brattain Power Rankings

5. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Boston Red Sox
3. Oakland A’s
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Chicago Cubs

Best Regards

John

Well, this is a first–four columns under my name were put up on the same day. Besides the one you just finished reading there was…

Deja blue… (Baseball Digest Daily)
Jay-Dead (MSN Canada)
Walking into disaster (Hardball Times)

That's a  grand  slam of sorts. Check the dates–all May 14, 2008 baby! I also submitted a column to be run on Friday on MSN Canada. Anybody wanna hire a workaholic writer who won't shut up? FOX? ESPN? SLAM Sports? SI? TSN? Rogers Sportsnet? The SCORE? The Sporting News? Anybody?

It was Dollar Dog Night last night at Citizens Bank Park, so it was a must-attend game. We saw the Atlanta Braves' Jo-Jo Reyes square off against the Phillies' Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick looked shaky in the first two innings, allowing three runs in the first inning and loading the bases with two outs in the second, but he settled down and didn't allow any more runs in six innings — a quality start. The Phillies couldn't figure out Reyes the first time around but got to him in the fourth and fifth innings.

While searching for something totally unrelated at Baseball-Reference (I forget what), I stumbled onto the number of times a team reaches base via error. It struck me as odd that there should be such a large discrepancy from team to team, and I got to wondering why this might be so. I don't have the time to do a full-on study right now, but maybe someone else does.

Here are some fun data to use as a possible starting point. This is the number of times each team reaches base via error per 500 plate appearances:

2008 (thru games of May 13)

1. Nationals 9.15
2. Pirates 7.80
3. Braves 7.00
4. Mets 6.45
5. Brewers 6.25
6. Twins 5.76
7. Rockies 5.45
8. White Sox 5.40
9. Blue Jays 5.38
10. Diamondbacks 5.27
11. Angels 5.23
12. Dodgers 5.08
13. Rays 5.08
14. Orioles 5.03
15. Reds 4.93
16. Phillies 4.82
17. A's 4.80
18. Marlins 4.66
19. Mariners 4.60
20. Tigers 4.31
21. Royals 4.27
22. Cubs 4.03
23. Giants 4.02
24. Rangers 3.99
25. Yankees 3.98
26. Indians 3.76
27. Astros 3.64
28. Padres 3.51
29. Cardinals 3.08
30. Red Sox 2.72

2007

1. Cubs 6.22
2. Mariners 5.88
3. Phillies 5.43
4. Rangers 5.39
5. Braves 5.18
6. Cardinals 5.15
7. Royals 5.13
8. Brewers 5.05
9. Yankees 4.98
10. Mets 4.89
11. Twins 4.87
12. White Sox 4.75
13. Reds 4.66
14. Angels 4.52
15. Marlins 4.49
16. Rockies 4.46
17. Giants 4.43
18. Orioles 4.39
19. Red Sox 4.36
20. Astros 4.35
21. Diamondbacks 4.26
22. A's 4.24
23. Rays 4.14
24. Tigers 4.09
25. Indians 4.08
26. Blue Jays 4.03
27. Pirates 4.02
28. Nationals 3.95
29. Dodgers 3.90
30. Padres 3.56

A quick glance reveals that only the Braves are in the top five both years, while only the Padres are in the bottom five (although Cleveland is on the cusp so far in 2008). The Nationals almost never reached base via error last season, but are going nuts this year.

Off the top of my head, here are some factors that might play a role:

• Quality of opposition defense: Well, duh.
• Team speed: Faster teams put more pressure on the defense, which could lead to more errors.
• Home park: What is the playing surface like? Who is the official scorer?

I'm probably missing others. Like I said, I'm just asking questions right now. Is there a certain “type” of offense that can exploit this sort of thing, or is it all random? Someone should look into this, if they haven't already…

Jeff Keppinger was a NY Mets property until 2004.  He was having a
career year in 2008 with Cincinnati: .324/.373/.446 (rltelesca/flickr)

Arizona    

Orlando Hudson - Missed 6 games (hamstring).
    
Baltimore    

Brian Roberts - Missed 1 game (bruised left foot).
Melvin Mora - Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
    
Boston    

Jacoby Ellsbury - Missed 1 game (knee injury).
    
Cincinnati    

Jeff Keppinger - Kneecap, day-to-day.
    
Los Angeles Anaheim    

Darren O'Day - Optioned to Salt Lake (AAA).
Maicer Izturis - Missed 14 games (back injury).
Nick Adenhart - Optioned to Salt Lake (AAA).
Jose Arredondo - Recalled from Salt Lake (AAA).
    
Los Angeles Dodgers

Tony Abreu - Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (hernia surgery).
Luis Maza - Contract purchased from Las Vegas (AAA).
    
NY Mets    

Raul Casanova - Outrighted to New Orleans (AAA).
Angel Pagan - Shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
Nelson Figueroa - Designated for assignment by the New York Mets.
Jorge Sosa - Designated for assignment by the New York Mets.
Matt Wise - Missed 34 games (right forearm injury).
Fernando Tatis - Contract purchased from New Orleans (AAA).
Claudio Vargas - Contract purchased from New Orleans (AAA).
    
Pittsburgh    

Jose Bautista - Missed 1 game (right hand injury).
Marino Salas - Contract purchased from Indianapolis (AAA).
    
Tampa Bay    

Ben Zobrist - Missed 38 games (broken left thumb).
Andy Cannizaro - Designated for assignment by the Tampa Bay Rays.
    
Texas    

Milton Bradley - Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.

After the Jays lost three of four against the Tribe in pathetic fashion–including back-to-back shutouts and 31.3 consecutive shutout innings–I was reminded of a similar series against the Boston Red Sox in 1990. While I found the Jays’ offense incredibly obnoxious last (and this) year, it was by no means the most frustrated I have been as a Jays fan. After watching Toronto get completely PWN3D by Rickey Henderson and the Oakland A’s in the 1989 ALCS, I was praying for a shot at redemption. I went into the 1990 season with high hopes and expectations.

The Jays jockeyed for top spot in the AL East with the Red Sox through most of the year. As the summer wore on, Toronto would get so close to the top and every so often be tied atop the standings only to quickly fall back into second place. It seemed whenever the Jays needed a big win, they just couldn’t get it.

In mid August, the Jays embarked on a nine game road trip that would take them to Chicago, Minnesota and New York. At the time, they were two games back and when they returned home faced the Red Sox in an obviously crucial four game series. The road trip started well as the Jays took two of three at Comiskey, swept at the Metrodome and went to the Bronx tied with the Red Sox for top spot.

After George Bell singled in a run in the first inning of the opener at Yankee Stadium, the Bombers threw up a four-spot against Todd Stottlemyre. The Jays scored in the second, third and fourth innings and enjoyed a brief 5-4 lead until Jim Leyritz singled home Kevin Maas to knot the game at five.

A one-out Tony Fernandez triple was stranded in the seventh, and in the bottom of the 11th, two errors brought the game home for the Yankees. No biggie though, the Yankees had lefty Chuck Cary (4-8, 4.24 ERA) and Andy Hawkins (3-10, 5.52 ERA) starting the next two games. Then the bats when stone cold.

The Jays scored just two runs off both Cary and Andy Hawkins (both in the fifth inning) and the Yankees swept. The Jays road trip went from terrific to meh and the Blue Birds limped home two games out of first. On the bright side, Dave Stieb was slated to open the series and he came through tossing seven solid innings giving up two runs. He came out to start the eighth and Ellis Burks singled. Cito Gaston came out and decided to ice the game bringing out Tom Henke.

The “Terminator’s” first pitch to Mike Greenwell left the field was quickly as it reached him and it was all tied at three. Henke settled down striking out four of the next six outs he recorded.

With one out in the bottom of the ninth, Mookie Wilson singled and was picked off first by Joe Hesketh. However, Mark Marshall, who was playing first, bungled the catch and Wilson made it to third. An intentional walk to clutch hitting Tony Fernandez brought up Kelly Gruber with runners on the corners and one out. Jeff Gray replaced Hesketh and Gruber tapped one lightly to third and Wilson scampered home and the Jays received karmic payback for the loss to the Yankees in game one of that previous series.

The Jays were one game back of Boston.

Then the bats died completely wasting three magnificent starts by Jimmy Key (7 IP/0 ER), David Wells (8 IP/1 ER), and Todd Stottlemyre (8 IP/1 ER). In game two of the series, Key and Dana Kiecker (4-6, 4.53 ERA)–who hadn’t recorded an out in his previous start against Baltimore, threw up goose eggs for eight innings. The Jays had man on third, one out, in the first inning only to have George Bell and Kelly Gruber strike out. The Jays would only get one other runner to third and that was the result of Tony Fernandez hitting into a double play with men on first and second.

After a three-up, three down eighth inning by Duane Ward, Ellis Burks, Mike Greenwell, Mike Marshall, and Tom Brunansky all singled and the Red Sox were up 2-0. Jeff Gray was brought in to pitch the ninth and sandwiched a Pat Borders groundout with strikeouts to John Olerud and pinch hitter (for Manny Lee) Rance Mulliniks and the series was tied.

The Jays now had to face Roger Clemens (18-5, 2.04 ERA)–who was enjoying a magnificent season–on Saturday. Boomer Wells was up the challenge and both tossed up goose eggs until the top of the seventh when Dewey Evans opened the frame with a home run. Meanwhile, the Jays never got anybody as far as third with less than two out.

With Clemens still pitching in the bottom of the ninth, Gruber reached on an error by Wade Boggs. One out later, Fred McGriff boomed a double but Gruber held up at third. John Olerud was intentionally walked to load the bases with one out. The Jays had their first really good scoring opportunity of the afternoon. Catcher Greg Myers lifted a lazy fly ball to right field and Gruber stayed put. This time Manny Lee (who had an unlikely ability to hit off Clemens) hit for himself but whiffed on a 1-2 pitch and Clemens had the shutout.

The Jays went into Sunday hoping to salvage a split.

Todd Stottlemyre faced Greg Harris (10-5, 3.33 ERA) in the finale of the series. Once again, both starters threw up zero after zero on the scoreboard. Other than the second inning, Toronto went three up/three down against Harris. After seven innings, it was still 0-0; Stottlemyre opened the top of the eighth with a walk to Brunansky, and a wild pitch got him to second. Stottlemyre bore down and struck out Luis Rivera but Jody Reed singled Brunansky home.

Down by a run, Greg Myers beat out a grounder deep into the hole between third and short and Kenny Williams pinch ran for him. Junior Felix struck out without advancing Williams. With Manny Lee up, Williams swiped second base. He tapped a ball to the mound and Williams was caught in a rundown. Lee reached second before Williams was tagged out. Rance Mulliniks pinch hit for Glenallen Hill and drew a walk. With runners on first and second, Red Sox skipper Joe Morgan brought in Jeff Gray who got Wilson to fly out to right to end the threat. The Jays got a two-out walk from Fred McGriff, but John Olerud swung at a 1-2 pitch ending the game.

The Jays were shut out for the third straight time by the Red Sox. Over those three games, the Jays garnered 12 hits and nine walks. They were 0-for-26 with RISP.

As I wrote earlier–Worst. Series. Ever.

Epilogue…

The Jays lost their next two to Milwaukee getting only four runs. They won the finale of that series and it was the beginning of a run where the Jays won 16 of their next 22. A win against the Brewers opening a series in Milwaukee on September 24 gave them a 1.5 game lead over Boston. However, they lost the next two and lost the first two of a three game set in Fenway Park and the Red Sox were back on top to stay.–(Repost
from TPoSGD
January 11, 2008)

Best Regards

John

• Ryan Howard had 2 hits and scored twice, and Jayson Werth went 3-for-4 with 4 RBI as the Phillies rallied to beat the Braves, 5-4. Chipper Jones had 3 hits, and Jeff Francoeur had 2 hits and 2 RBI for Atlanta.
• Paul Byrd shut down Oakland for 7 1/3 innings, and Ryan Garko blasted a 3-run home run as the Indians blanked the A's, 4-0. Justin Duchscherer allowed just one run on 4 hits over 6 2/3 innings for Oakland.
• Edwin Jackson tossed 7 scoreless innings, and Gabe Gross ripped an RBI single in the 11th inning to give the Rays a 2-1 walk-off win over Mariano Rivera and the Yankees. Chien-Ming Wang gave up one run in 7 innings, and Hideki Matsui hit a solo home run in the 9th inning that initially tied the game at 1-1.
• Ryan Braun doubled, tripled, and drove in 2 runs, and Bill Hall hit his 9th home run of the season as the Brewers cut down the Dodgers, 5-3. Russell Martin had 3 hits, and Matt Kemp reached base 3 times for Los Angeles.
• Gerald Laird went 2-for-3 with a walk and 3 runs scored, and Ramon Vazquez added 2 hits and 2 RBI to lead the Rangers to a 5-2 win over the Mariners.
• Matt Stairs reached base 3 times, homered, and scored twice, and Jesse Litsch threw 5 2/3 solid innings as the Blue Jays got by the Twins, 5-3.
• Chris Young collected 3 hits and scored 3 times, and Stephen Drew singled, homered, and drove in 3 runs as Diamondbacks doubled up the Rockies, 8-4. Garrett Atkins had 2 hits, a home run, and scored twice for Colorado.
• Fred Lewis singled, doubled, and tripled, and Matt Cain pitched 8 strong innings and hit a solo home run as the Giants took down the Astros, 4-2. Carlos Lee had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI for Houston.
• Luke Scott went 3-for-4 with a 3-run home run, and Brian Roberts had 2 hits and a walk as the Orioles upset the Red Sox, 5-4.
• Joey Votto reached base 3 times and hit a solo homer, and Edinson Volquez allowed just one run over 6 innings as the Reds defeated the Marlins, 5-3. Jerry Hairston Jr. also had 2 hits, a double, scored twice and stole a base for Cincinnati.
• Ryan Church doubled, homered, and drove in 4 runs, and Brian Schneider went 3-for-4 with an RBI and 2 runs scored as the two former Washington players avenged their trade by leading the Mets to a 6-3 win over the Nationals. John Maine gave up just one earned run on 2 hits in 6 innings of work for New York.
• Khalil Greene had 2 hits, including a 3-run home run, to lead the San Diego offense to 4 runs in the 4th inning and a 4-3 victory over the Cubs. Believe it or not, Shawn Estes started for San Diego and picked up the win! Who's next? Eric Show???!!!
• Mark Grudzielanek collected 3 hits, and Jose Guillen doubled twice and knocked in 2 runs as the Royals edged the Tigers, 3-2. Zach Greinke allowed 2 runs in 6 innings for Kansas City.
• Adam LaRoche doubled, walked twice, and drove in 3 runs, Ronny Paulino had 2 hits, 2 RBI, and scored 2 runs, and Nate McLouth hit a 2-run home run (his 10th of the year) as the Pirates crossed home plate 4 times in the top of the 10th inning to cage the Cardinals, 8-4.
• Jered Weaver struck out 6 while allowing just one hit over 7 scoreless innings, and Robb Quinlan and Mike Napoli drove in the game's only runs to help the Angels to a 2-0 shutout over the White Sox. John Danks was impressive as well for Chicago, giving up 7 hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings.

Tuesday's Scoreboard