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 No Free Passes for Me, Thanks

A lot of guys never drew a walk in their career. For grins, here are the top 10 from 1901 to 2008 in terms of plate appearances:

  1. Tracy Stallard (Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals; 1961-1968): 258 PA
  2. Steve Cooke (Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds; 1992-1998): 193
  3. David Bush (Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers; 2004-2008): 149
  4. Sean Bergman (Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins; 1993-2000): 145
  5. Buster Narum (Baltimore Orioles, Washington Senators; 1963-1967): 131
  6. Brian Williams (Houston Astros, San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians; 1991-2000): 101
  7. Matt Beech (Philadelphia Phillies; 1996-1998): 94
  8. Dan McGinn (Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos, Chicago Cubs; 1968-1972): 94
  9. Bartolo Colon (Cleveland Indians, Montreal Expos, Chicago White Sox, Anaheim Angels; 1997-2007): 90
  10. Renie Martin (Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies; 1979-1984): 90

Bush is the active leader, but he's got a ways to go before he catches Stallard (who is more famous for serving up homer #61 to Roger Maris in 1961). All of these guys were pitchers. How about position players?

  1. Al Hermann (Boston Braves; 1923-1924): 97 PA
  2. Overton Tremper (Brooklyn Robins; 1927-1928): 94
  3. Joe Dunn (Brooklyn Superbas; 1908-1909): 93
  4. Jerry Gil (Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds; 2004-2007): 88
  5. Bill Schwartz (Cleveland Naps; 1904): 88
  6. Victor Mata (New York Yankees; 1984-1985): 83
  7. Purnal Goldy (Detroit Tigers; 1962-1963): 80
  8. Charlie Moran (St. Louis Cardinals; 1903-1908): 77
  9. Walter Morris (St. Louis Cardinals; 1908): 77
  10. Les Fusselman (St. Louis Cardinals; 1908): 73

That's a lot of old-timers. How about something a little more recent, say since expansion in 1961?

  1. Jerry Gil (Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds; 2004-2007): 88 PA
  2. Victor Mata (New York Yankees; 1984-1985): 83
  3. Purnal Goldy (Detroit Tigers; 1962-1963): 80
  4. Alex Hernandez (Pittsburgh Pirates; 2000-2001): 71
  5. Mike Robertson (Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks; 1996-1998): 61
  6. Kelly Mann (Atlanta Braves; 1989-1990): 53
  7. Wilkin Ruan (Los Angeles Dodgers; 2002-2003): 52
  8. Orlando Alvarez (Los Angeles Dodgers, California Angels; 1973-1976): 51
  9. Will Pennyfeather (Pittsburgh Pirates; 1992-1994): 47
  10. Mike Fitzgerald (St. Louis Cardinals; 1988): 47

Finally, three men in big-league history (since 1901) have failed to reach base by any means in 28 plate appearances. Not surprisingly, all are pitchers: Tony Pierce (Kansas City/Oakland A's, 1967-1968), Von McDaniel (St. Louis Cardinals, 1957-1958), and Nellie King (Pittsburgh Pirates, 1954-1957).

Well, that was silly. Think I'll go for a walk now…

 God does play dice, but he uses loaded ones

Sorry for the long layoff but I've been badly under the weather (and still am), so that might explain why the following will seem a bit cranky. From BTF:

“And we do statistical analysis a disservice when we insist that certain outcomes for which we haven't been able to identify a particular cause are by definition the result of “random fluctuation”, “chance”, “luck”, etc.”

What difference does it make what the hell we call it? We could put a wig on it and call it 'Nancy' for all I care.

Probability theory (where the term 'random chance' comes from) is the mathematical area of study that attempts to model uncertainty. The “random” aspect of probability theory is simply a stand in for all the factors we don't know. We use 'random chance' when we're trying to predict the outcome of an event that may or may not happen. There is no implication EVER that we can only use 'random chance' for events that are somehow “truly random.” This is particularly true since there's some debate as to whether “truly random” actually even exists in the real world.

When we know a factor, we can make an adjustment. IE:

P(H) = Probability of a hit in a plate appearance knowing nothing else.
P(H|P) = Probability of a hit given Pitcher 'P'
P(H|(P^B)) = Probability of a hit given Pitcher 'P' and Batter 'B'

and so on.

There's never the slightest implication in any of these that factors not listed are unimportant and shouldn't be discussed. It simply is a listing of various things we do know.

Effects of factors we don't know (or haven't mentioned) = random chance = luck = Nancy

Why do we have to constantly come up with weasel words so people don't get themselves in a twist over words like 'random' when its definition precisely matches the dynamic we are trying to explain? It irks me to no end to see a silly semantics argument be a stand in for a refutation of an otherwise sound concept.

P(H|G) = Probability of a hit given we know everything = 0 or 1 = Probability theory does not apply.


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 Brewers Set to Ink Braun to Long-Term Deal at 11:00 AM ET

The Brewers called a 10 a.m. CT (11 ET) news conference on Thursday to announce a contract extension for left fielder Ryan Braun.

According to MLB.com…

The deal is for at least seven years beyond this season and exceeds the six-year, $31 million contract signed by Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who would have been eligible for salary arbitration one year earlier than Braun. Braun's deal blows away the six-year, $17.5 million guaranteed to Rays third baseman Evan Longoria, who like Braun falls into the “zero-plus” category of service time.

 Characters of the Game

Which current players would you describe as characters of the game?  Eric Byrnes comes to mind.  Manny Ramirez's antics yesterday put him in this category as well (in case you missed it, he high fived a fan while in the middle of a play and still managed to turn a double play). Who else?

Classic examples include:

Mark “The Bird” Fidrych, a former pitcher for the Tigers would talk to the ball;

Rick Dempsey and his impromptu rain delay shows;

Mike Hargrove and his “human rain delay” antics while getting ready in the batter's box;

Kurt Bevacqua and his bubble blowing (that unforgetable classic 1976 Topps card of him blowing a huge bubble - see it here).

Bill “Spaceman” Lee, who reportedly berated an umpire for a controversial call in the 1975 World Series, threatening to bite off his ear and claimed his marijuana use made him impervious to bus fumes while jogging to work at Fenway Park.

Turk Wendell and his black licorice and jumping over the foul lines back into the dugout.

Who else belongs on this list.

 

 

 How the Phillies Can Fix the Brett Myers Situation


Philadelphia Phillies starter Brett Myers once again gave
his team little hope of winning a game he started, going four and one-third
innings last night against the Atlanta Braves, allowing eight runs (six earned)
on nine hits and three walks, while striking out six. He allowed two first-inning
solo home runs – a lead-off HR for Yunel Escobar and a one-out HR to Chipper
Jones – and another solo homer to Kelly Johnson in the second inning. He
continued to get pounded as the game progressed but mostly lucked out with his
baffling ability to strike out hitters in addition to a fourth-inning double
play.

Myers has shown some glimmer of hope in that his strikeout
and walk rates so far this year do not differ much at all from 2005 and ’06, when he was a starter
(8.69, 8.59, 8.10 K/9 and 2.84, 2.86, 3.04 BB/9 in ’05, ’06, and ’08,
respectively). Additionally, Myers has had a couple good
starts in’ 08: April 17 vs. Houston (7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K) and May 3 vs.
San Francisco (7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 10 K). Overall, Myers has had a
tremendous ability to serve up home runs for the opposition and he has also had
a tremendous ability to still make batters swing and miss. That’s baffling:
he’s hittable… but not hittable.

What I draw from that is one or more of three possibilities:
he is tipping his pitches (unlikely since we would see a noticeable decrease in
strikeouts); he, his catchers, and/or his coaches are ignoring or
misinterpreting scouting reports and hitter tendencies (also unlikely as we’d
see a similar decline from the other starters); or, he is simply not locating
well.

Let’s first have a look at his home runs. 7 of his 15 HR
(47%) have come on straight fastballs; four have been hit by lefties, three
have been hit by righties. The average speed of those fastballs is 90.5 MPH.
The average of these fastballs is about a half-foot to the left of the middle
of home plate (from the catcher/umpire’s perspective) and about 2.7 feet high
as it crosses home plate. Considering that the average Major Leaguer is six
feet tall, these pitches are generally around the belt.

For lefties, these fastballs are, on average, a third of a
foot to the left of the middle of home plate and 2.5 feet high as it crosses
the plate; for righties, they’re two-thirds of a foot to the left of home plate
and 3 feet high as it crosses the plate. I’m not savvy with the graphs as Mike Fast and others are, otherwise
I’d paint a pretty picture for you.

Here are the average data for the non-fastball home runs:

Sliders (4): 84.5
MPH, .22 feet to the right of the middle of home plate, 2.25 feet high.

Change-ups (2):
84.4 MPH, .46 feet to the left of the middle of home plate, 3.13 feet high.

Cut fastball (1):
88.3 MPH, .04 feet to the right of the middle of home plate, 2.97 feet high.

Sinker (1): 88.8
MPH, .90 feet to the left of the middle of home plate, 2.37 feet high.

Remember, the data for the horizontal location of the ball
relative to the middle of home plate is from the catcher/umpire’s viewpoint,
not the pitcher’s. If you want to download the Excel spreadsheet I created for this data, click here.

So far this season, Myers is averaging 2.5 HR, and about 8 K
and 3 BB per 9 innings, with only the HR/9 rate deviating wildly from his
career average. His HR/FB rate is, unsurprisingly, astronomically high at 24.6%
(his career average is 15.5%).

His batted ball ratios point a bit to the poor performance,
as his GB% is down (43.3% in ’08 to career average 47.1%)  and his FB% is up a few percentage points from
his career average (35.7% from 32.2%), while his LD% is about the same (21.1% in ’08 to career
average 20.7%). Additionally, his BABiP is only slightly
higher than average: .332 in ‘08 to .304 over his career.

Since we can pretty much narrow the problem down to
location, the question then becomes “How
do we fix it?
” The Phillies, who are expected to heavily contend for the NL
East title, cannot afford to throw Myers out to the mound every fifth day, sit
on their hands, and hope for the best when he has shown but faint glimmers of
hope in his eight starts this season (three quality starts, but in his April 11
quality start, he gave up 3 solo HR and in his May 3 quality start, he faced
the anemic San Francisco Giants offense).

I am not a member of any baseball team’s front office, and
what I am about to suggest may show why I am not and will never be a member of
a baseball team’s front office, but I think the Phillies should have Myers
thoroughly examined for any potential health concerns (no, that’s not the outrageous idea). If there are none, I make up a
flimsy reason to put Myers on the D.L. (“fatigue”) and give him some rest for a
couple weeks. In the meantime, I search for available starting pitchers via
trade or call up one of J.A. Happ,
Josh
Outman
, or Carlos
Carrasco
, and give them a few weeks (about four starts) to see how they
perform. After a couple weeks off, Myers makes a couple rehab starts in the
Minor Leagues to work on his location. If there’s improvement, great, he goes
right back into the rotation; if not, there are a few possibilities and none of
them are good:

Possibility 1:
Move Brett Myers to the bullpen again. Have him set up for Brad Lidge, pushing
Tom Gordon to the seventh inning with J.C. Romero. Since Lidge is a free agent
after the season, Myers gets about a month to set up to see how he performs. If
there’s an improvement, wave Lidge around as trade bait and pick up a decent
starting pitcher, and move Myers into the closer’s role and Gordon back into
the set-up role. Considering how dominant Lidge has been, though, the Phillies
may have no interest in trading him if he has expressed any interest in signing
a contract extension.

Possibility 2:
Move Brett Myers to the bullpen again, but only into the role Clay Condrey now
owns: mop-up relief. Use Myers only in games where the Phillies or their opponents
have a lead of 4+ runs or when the Phillies’ starting pitcher can’t go deep
into the game (something Myers is familiar with). However, he said last season
and in the off-season that he thrives on the adrenaline rush he gets from
pitching in a close game, so he may not savor this role at all and his performance
will diminish as a result (maybe that’s what he’s doing now, as he’s openly
stated he likes closing more than starting).

Possibility 3:
Designate Myers for assignment. Myers is in the second year of a three-year,
$25.75 million contract. He is due $8.5 million this season and $12 million in
2009. If the Phillies try and trade him, they have almost no bargaining
position at all considering how poorly he’s performed thus far, his
off-the-field issues, and his contract; thus, they likely wouldn’t get anything
of value in return. If the Phillies release him, they are still responsible for
the rest of his contract.

The first possibility has the most potential upside, but as
is usually the case, it also comes with a lot of risk since Myers is being
thrust into high-leverage situations. The second possibility is the safest bet
but also has the potential to backfire. The third possibility is like Plan Z if
the Phillies have no more patience for Myers and don’t want to risk him costing
the team any more games. There is also a fourth possibility I didn’t mention,
which is to do nothing by putting Myers right back in the rotation regardless of his improvement or lack thereof. As a team with a lot of potential, it might be unwise
to put half the chips on black and half the chips on white… and even a few on
green.

Since I’m just a fan and have no experience making personnel
decisions for Major League Baseball teams, I can’t have a truly educated and
objective opinion of which is the best route to go should Myers fail to show
any improvement following his Minor League rehab starts. For what it’s worth,
I’d go with the first possibility and move Myers to the back of the bullpen to
eventually supplant Lidge (again, if he succeeds; if not, we move down the list
of possibilities), and then use Lidge as trade bait to pick up a decent
starting pitcher and perhaps a prospect.

Lastly, there is still the thought that the first quarter of
the season still represents a small sample size. However, Myers hasn’t shown
any sign that he’s improving or that he is going to improve any time soon.
Sometimes, you just have to nip a problem in the bud, and such is the case with
Myers as the Phillies can’t afford to have their starters hemorrhage wins this
season, not with an offense that isn’t as good as expected and with a bullpen
that is finally solid after years of dealing with journeymen and castaways like
Jose Mesa and Antonio Alfonseca.

The Phillies’ front office has made a name for itself by
sitting on their collective hands, hoping for the best, and taking nothing but
the safest bets. It is why, until last season, the Phillies were the best team
since 2001 to not make the playoffs (they won at least 80 games each season).
They finally got off to a good start this season and were five games above .500
going into last night’s game. The Phillies didn’t reach five games above .500
until July 28 last season. The Phillies, along with the Colorado Rockies and
San Diego Padres of last season, know exactly how much one game can mean, so
they can’t afford to let the Brett Myers issue fester.

Image
credit to George Nikitin of the AP courtesy Phillies.com
.

 Short Stops Around the Majors for May 14, 2008
  • Jeff Clement doubled, tripled, and drove in a run, and Miguel Cairo had 2 hits, including an RBI single in the top of the 12th inning to drive in the winning run for the Mariners and give them a 4-3 victory over the Rangers. David Murphy had 2 singles, 2 doubles, and an RBI, and Scott Feldman allowed just one earned run over 7 innings for Texas. 
  • Chipper Jones and Kelly Johnson each hit a double and a home run, and Brian McCann went 2-for-4 with 3 RBI as the Braves held off the Phillies, 8-6. Chris Coste went 4-for-4 and Jimmy Rollins had 2 hits and 2 RBI for Philadelphia.
  • Jerry Hairston Jr. went 3-for-4 with a double and a triple, and Paul Jarish singled in the winning run in the bottom of the 10th inning as the Reds walked off with a 7-6 win over the Marlins.  Bronson Arroyo threw 7 shutout innings as well for Cincinnati.
  • Tim Redding yielded just 2 hits over 6 innings, and Felipe Lopez collected 2 hits and 2 walks as the Nationals upset the Mets, 5-3. Claudio Vargas had a solid outing on the hill, and Brian Schneider hit a solo homer for New York.
  • Mark Teahen reached base 3 times, Joey Gathright drove in 2 runs, and Luke Hochevar tossed 6 shutout innings as the Royals blanked the Tigers, 2-0.
  • Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano each had 2 hits, a home run, and 3 RBI, and Ted Lilly struck out 11 in 6 innings as the Cubs roughed up Jake Peavy and the Padres, 8-5. Tad Iguchi had 2 hits and 3 RBI for San Diego.
  • Matt Stairs hit a 1st inning grand slam, and the Toronto bullpen picked up starter Roy Halladay to help the Blue Jays hold off the Twins, 6-5. Jason Kubel had 2 doubles and 2 RBI, and Justin Morneau hit a 2-run home run for Minnesota.
  • Orlando Hudson singled, doubled, and knocked in 2 runs, and Michah Owings threw 6 innings of shutout ball as the Diamondbacks staved off a fierce Colorado rally to beat the Rockies, 4-3. Todd Helton had 3 hits for Colorado.
  • Miguel Tejada went 3-for-5 with 2 RBI, and Lance Berkman and Brad Ausmus each belted 2-run home runs as the Astros doubled up the Giants, 6-3. Aaron Rowand hit a 2-run shot for San Francisco.
  • Daniel Cabrera kept his team in the game through 7 innings, and Jay Payton responded by hitting a grand slam in the bottom of the 7th to rally the Orioles to a 6-4 win over the Red Sox. Jacoby Ellsbury had 3 hits for Boston.
  • C.C. Sabathia pitched a complete game 5-hit shutout while striking out 11, and Ryan Garko and Grady Sizemore hit solo home runs as the Indians beat the A's, 2-0. Cleveland starting pitchers have now thrown 43 1/3 straight scoreless innings!
  • Mike Mussina played the role of stopper on Wednesday for New York by tossing 6 1/3 strong innings, and Robinson Cano went 4-for-4 with an RBI to lead the Yankees to a 2-1 over the Rays. James Shields had another quality start for Tampa Bay, allowing just 2 runs over 7 1/3 innings.
  • Blake DeWitt hit a home run, and Juan Pierre went 3-for-5 with 3 RBI, including a 2-run double in the 9th inning, as the Dodgers rallied to stun the Brewers, 6-4. Manny Parra pitched 6 2/3 solid innings and drove in 2 runs for Milwaukee.
  • Todd Wellemeyer pitched 7 innings of 2-hit ball, and Troy Glaus and Cesar Izturis each collected 3 hits and an RBI as the Cardinals upended the Pirates, 5-1.
  • Carlos Quentin hit a grand slam, Nick Swisher hit a solo home run, and Jose Contreras gave up just one run on 4 hits over 7 innings of work as the White Sox defeated the Angels, 6-1.

Wednesday's Scoreboard

Braves
Phillies

R
8
6

H
12
9

E
0
0


Mariners
Rangers

R
4
3

H
10
9

E
0
1


Marlins
Reds

R
6
7

H
10
11

E
1
1


Red Sox
Orioles

R
3
6

H
12
8

E
0
0


Nationals
Mets

R
5
3

H
6
6

E
0
0


Athletics
Indians

R
0
2

H
5
5

E
1
0


Dodgers
Brewers

R
6
4

H
10
6

E
0
1


Yankees
Rays

R
2
1

H
7
7

E
0
1


Padres
Cubs

R
5
8

H
6
14

E
0
0


Tigers
Royals

R
0
2

H
6
7

E
1
0


Pirates
Cardinals

R
1
5

H
4
15

E
0
1


Blue Jays
Twins

R
6
5

H
6
11

E
2
1


Rockies
Diamondbacks

R
3
4

H
12
7

E
1
0


White Sox
Angels

R
6
1

H
10
5

E
0
1


Astros
Giants

R
6
3

H
11
11

E
2
0

 
Thursday's Probable Pitchers

Away

Home

Time (ET)

Away Probable

Home Probable

Athletics

Indians

12:05 p.m.

Smith (2-2)

Laffey (1-2)

Dodgers

Brewers

1:05 p.m.

Billingsley (2-5)

Sheets (4-0)

Blue Jays

Twins

1:10 p.m.

McGowan (2-3)

Perkins (0-1)

Nationals

Mets

1:10 p.m.

Bergmann (0-1)

Pelfrey (2-3)

Pirates

Cardinals

1:15 p.m.

Snell (2-2)

Pineiro (2-2)

Tigers

Royals

2:10 p.m.

Rogers (3-3)

Meche (2-5)

Padres

Cubs

2:20 p.m.

Maddux (3-3)

Dempster (4-1)

Astros

Giants

3:45 p.m.

Sampson (2-3)