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 Rockies Would Be Smart to Deal Holliday

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that the Colorado Rockies “almost
certainly would consider trading [Matt] Holliday,” their left fielder and
runner-up in NL MVP voting last season. They would be smart to trade him if
they feel they have no shot at winning the NL West. However, if the Rockies win
three of their next five games starting tonight, that would leave them at
18-27, exactly where they were after 45 games last season when they went on to
win the NL pennant.

Simply put, Matt Holliday is overrated. He’s a product of
hitter-friendly Coors Field, as shown by his home/road splits:

2004: 1.009 OPS
home; .654 OPS road.

2005: 1.002 OPS
home; .729 OPS road.

2006: 1.132 OPS
home; .819 OPS road.

2007: 1.157 OPS
home; .860 OPS road.

2008: 1.137 OPS
home; .774 OPS road.

Career: 1.090 OPS
home; .780 OPS road.

Granted, he improved each season from 2005 to ’07, but he is
simply not as good as his overall numbers indicate. His batting average is
ninety points higher at home and two-thirds of his home runs have come at Coors
Field despite having nearly identical plate appearances at home and on the road
(1,265 and 1,260, respectively).

The Rockies are deep in prospects and if they feel that 2008
is a lost cause, it would behoove them to move Holliday, collect a ransom of
prospects, and see if they can strike lightning in a bottle. It’s highly
unlikely that the Rockies will have the means – much less the desire – to sign
Holliday to a contract after the 2009 season. If they keep Holliday through
2009, they will only receive only compensatory draft picks from the team that signs
him as a free agent. Holliday is much more valuable to the Rockies by being a
trading chip than by giving them two years of offense and a couple of draft
picks when he jets to free agency.

Last season, the Rockies had the second-best offense in the
National League (thanks in part to Holliday) behind the Philadelphia Phillies.
Their offense hasn’t been nearly as good this season due to a slow start and
eventual injury to shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, and a surprising lack of power
from first baseman Todd Helton and right fielder Brad Hawpe. Assuming that
their lack of offense so far is aberrant, they can withstand the loss of Matt
Holliday and his 130-160 OPS+.

What the Rockies really need to compete this season is
pitching, as the pitchers they counted on last season that returned (Jeff
Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Franklin Morales) have been failures. The trio have
put up an ERA+ 73, 83, and 71, respectively. Additionally, their great closer
from last season, Manny Corpas, has flopped and they had to re-promote Brian
Fuentes to the closer’s role.

Rosenthal cites the Indians, Cardinals, Yankees, Athletics,
Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Mets as potential teams interested in Holliday’s
services. The Yankees, obviously, would be the best business partner for the
Rockies because they have the least payroll woes, the most demand to make a
noteworthy transaction, and a farm system deep enough to be intriguing.

Regardless of which team ends up acquiring Holliday, the
Rockies will have made a move extremely beneficial to the franchise even if it
doesn’t help their chances of earning a playoff berth in 2008. A Holliday trade
sets them up very well for the future.

 Alienation Is for the Rich

The Billy Wagner meltdown continues in New York. Evidently not content just taking shots at Oliver Perez, he's now going after the rest of his teammates. Here's the fun quote from Wagner that's getting play:

Somebody want to tell me why the closer is being interviewed and I
didn't even play, and why
they are over there and not being interviewed? I got it; they're gone.
(Big) shocker.

As I understand it, this is actually a cleaned-up version of what he said. It leaves out a few, shall we say, colorful adjectives. And bless his heart, lest anyone think he was speaking off the cuff, Wagner reiterated his comments later on the radio:

I was not a participant in the game. And the guys that had participated
were gone. We're all upset and we're all unhappy about
the way we were playing. I hadn't even played, I had no role in the
game. David Wright is always there. The same guys are always there. But
there needs to be the other guys accountable.

So, Wagner is excluding Wright and, presumably, himself from this little tizzy. That leaves, what, 23 guys to alienate? Heck, why not?

I have to admit, I've lived in Southern California my entire life. I visited New York once, and I didn't really get it. There's a decent chance that if I had to spend any appreciable amount of time there, I'd explode. I mean, it seems like a great place and all, but some folks just aren't wired for that lifestyle — ask Ed Whitson.

I wonder if Wagner is one of those guys? I don't know Wagner from Adam, but I'm just thinking that a person who publicly disrespects his teammates on a semi-regular basis might not be real happy with his situation.

Then again, I could be full of crap.

 National League Awards - Week Six

I have entered a voting poll at Baseball Happenings and as a new
weekly feature at Baseball Digest Daily I will report on my voting as well as
linking the results from the voting which consists of twenty authors from
various baseball websites.

For the first week I have been involved in, I was voting for
the National League MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards. The voting is
to be done as if the season were ending on that
day. Which makes for a difficult process at times, as those unsustainable
starts, a hot weekend, or even some good fortune allow for certain players to
rewarded when they would otherwise be ignored. That is, at this point in the
season, there is hardly a player, in my opinion, that has truly changed what
one should expect from them, with Nate
McLouth
being one exception.

 
Here is how I voted (as of May 11, 2008):

NL MVP

Chase
Utley
Tim
Lincecum
Lance
Berkman

I have always been a proponent of what have you done for the team, however, that is not the be all,
end all in the MVP ballot. It does however help when one team is among the
division leaders and the others are not.

In the case of Utley, he has been absolutely tearing the
cover off the ball for the Phillies and doing so from a position not
traditionally heralded as one to provide a great deal of offensive fire power.
At the point of voting, Utley was leading in both win shares above bench (WSAB)
as well as with value over replacement player (VORP) which also helped his
case.

For Tim Lincecum, he had been, far and away, the most
dominant starting pitcher in the National League and at 23 he still has a lot
of room to grow. That said, I cannot see another pitcher who has essentially
won games entirely on his own. The Giants have surprised many with their quick
start, but Lincecum is the one player on this team that I foresee continued
success.

Berkman has, for all intents and purposes, been the
offensive equivalent of Utley. Some may argue he has been superior. I take into
account supporting staff (which Berkman currently gets the nod from) and
position (which again, works against Berkman).

Both Utley and Berkman are here
to stay
and should be among the MVP candidates in October.

NL Cy Young

Tim Lincecum
Brandon
Webb
Jake
Peavy

The Cy Young award is more of an individual award in my
opinion, although pitchers do benefit from the team around them. I try not to
punish a pitcher for performing in a pitchers park, but I have to admit it does
sit in the back of my head.

At the time of voting, Lincecum led all National League
pitchers in WSAB and VORP. This was enough for me to ignore the wins and place
him atop the voting for the Cy Young. I am additionally enamored with Lincecum’s
strikeout rate.

Webb has been downright nasty. The added focus to his Change
Up has helped Webb to somehow improve his groundball rate, which is an
excellent improvement considering the infield Webb has behind him.

Jake Peavy will presumably always be among my leaders for
the National League Cy Young as long as he pitches in PETCO. It is interesting
to note the discrepancy between Peavy’s stats on the road as opposed to at home
where even his strikeout rate is improved (see Graph below, courtesy FanGraphs.com).


NL ROY

Geovany
Soto
Jair
Jurrjens
Joey
Votto

The performance of young players in baseball today,
specifically in the National League, is outstanding. Similar to the Cy Young
award, this is more of an individual award which is based on performance, as
well as position.

Soto is currently running away with the award as he is the
best catcher in all of baseball. The fact that he is a rookie makes for his
quick start to be that much more outstanding. Obviously the start is not
sustainable, but as of today, Soto is clearly the class of the National League
rookies. Another month or so of this type of performance, and Soto may find
himself knocking on the door of the MVP.

Jurrjens is making those in Detroit praying for a time machine. His
performance to date has been nothing short of spectacular and seemingly
sustainable. Keep in mind Jurrjens is only 22 years old and is essentially
getting by on two pitches. In other words, when Jurrjens figures it out, we are
looking at an excellent pitcher for years to come.

I’m confident Votto is receiving this vote because he is a
Canadian. To this point, his performance has been nice, however not
outstanding. Although the fact that Dusty has seen enough in Votto to move him
up in the lineup does say a lot and should go a long way for the kid’s future
in the league.

 
Check
out the entire vote
from Week 6
in the National League. Feel free to leave comments and questions, as well as
your own personal opinion of whom you
would have voted for.

 Baseball Transactions - Thursday

Blake DeWitt's back injury comes after 7 hits in his last 5 games
(double, home run, 2 walks and a strikeout)  (malingering/flickr)


Arizona
   

Conor Jackson - Right hamstring injury, day-to-day.
    
Atlanta    

Chipper Jones - Groin, day-to-day.
    
Chicago Cubs    

Daryle Ward - Herniated disk, day-to-day.
Felix Pie - Optioned to Iowa (AAA).
    
Colorado    

Josh Newman - Recalled from Colorado Springs (AAA).
Ryan Speier - Rotator cuff, 15-day DL.
    
Houston    

Ty Wigginton - Rib injury, day-to-day.
    
Los Angeles    

Blake DeWitt - Back injury, day-to-day.
    
Milwaukee    

David Riske - Hyperextended elbow, 15-day DL.
Mark DiFelice - Contract purchased from Nashville (AAA).
    
NY Mets    

Luis Castillo - Missed 3 games (quadricep injury).
Scott Schoeneweis - Illness, day-to-day.
    
NY Yankees    

Kei Igawa - Optioned to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA).
Ian Kennedy - Recalled from Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA).
    
Oakland    

Mark Ellis - Hamstring, day-to-day.
    
San Francisco    

Kevin Frandsen - Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (left achilles).
Merkin Valdez - Right elbow injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to May 13th).
Alex Hinshaw - Contract purchased from Frisco (AAA).
    
St. Louis    

Jason Isringhausen - Hip injury, day-to-day.
    
Tampa Bay    

Jason Bartlett - Personal reasons, day-to-day.
    
Washington    

Nick Johnson - Right wrist injury, 15-day DL.
Jason Bergmann - Recalled from Columbus (AAA).
Chris Schroder - Optioned to Columbus (AAA).

 Short Stops Around the Majors for May 15, 2008
  • Jhonny Peralta went 2-for-3 with a home run and 3 runs scored, and Aaron Laffey allowed just one unearned run over 7 innings as the Indians knocked off the Athletics, 4-2. Ben Francisco also had 3 hits for Cleveland.
  • Scott Rolen and Shannon Stewart each had 2 hits, and Joe Inglett singled in the go ahead run in the top of the 11th inning to give the Blue Jays a 3-2 win over the Twins. Glen Perkins pitched 6 strong innings for Minnesota.
  • Doug Mientkiewicz went 3-for-3 with 2 walks and 3 runs scored, Chris Gomez added 3 hits and scored 3 times, and Jason Bay hit a pinch-hit 3-run homer as the Pirates rallied to score 4 runs in the 8th inning and 3 runs in the 9th inning on their way to defeating the Cardinals, 11-5. Chris Duncan had 2 hits and 2 RBI, and Troy Glaus picked up 3 hits and a walk for St. Louis.
  • Ryan Dempster struck out 12 over 8 1/3 scoreless innings, and Derrek Lee had 2 hits and knocked in 2 runs as the Cubs blanked the Padres, 4-0. Aramis Ramirez and Brian Giles each had 3 hits for their respective clubs.
  • Scott Kazmir tossed 6 scoreless innings, and Akinori Iwamura doubled, homered, walked, and scored twice to lead the Rays to a 5-2 victory over the Yankees. Shawn Riggans also had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI for Tampa Bay.
  • A.J. Pierzynski singled and doubled twice, and Jim Thome drove in the winning run with an RBI single in the 9th inning as the White Sox edged the Angels, 4-3.
  • Gary Bennett doubled, homered and drove in 4 runs, and Chad Billingsley threw 7 strong innings, allowing just one run on 3 hits, as the Dodgers roughed up Ben Sheets and the Brewers, 7-2.
  • Jason Bergmann struck out 9 while pitching 7 scoreless innings, and Jesus Flores reached base 3 times and scored the game's only run to help the Nationals frustrate the Mets, 1-0. Mike Pelfrey took a no-hitter into the 7th inning for New York before ending his day by allowing just one run on 3 hits.
  • Jose Guillen reached base 3 times, homered, and drove in 3 runs, and Gil Meche tossed 7 solid innings as the Royals doubled up the Tigers, 8-4, to sweep the series from Detroit.
  • Kaz Matsui, Carlos Lee, and Mark Loretta each had 3 hits, Lance Berkman went 2-for-4 with a home run, walk, and 3 RBI, and Darin Erstad hit a pinch-hit 3-run homer in the 8th inning as the Astros rallied to stun the Giants, 8-7. Omar Vizquel and Randy Winn picked up 3 hits apiece, and John Bowker collected 3 RBI for San Francisco in defeat.
  • Cole Hamels pitched a complete game 4-hit shutout, and Ryan Howard, Pedro Feliz, and Shane Victorino all went deep as the Phillies scalped the Braves, 5-0.
  • Stephen Drew singled, doubled twice, and added a triple, Orlando Hudson reached base 4 times, scored twice, and drove in 2 runs, and Chris Snyder ripped a 3-run homer to give Brandon Webb and the Diamondbacks enough of a cushion to defeat the Rockies, 8-5. Webb's record goes to a league best 9-0 this season.

Thursday's Scoreboard

Dodgers
Brewers

R
7
2

H
11
6

E
1
0


Athletics
Indians

R
2
4

H
8
9

E
0
1


Nationals
Mets

R
1
0

H
4
5

E
2
0


Blue Jays
Twins

R
3
2

H
10
7

E
0
1


Pirates
Cardinals

R
11
5

H
13
14

E
0
1


Tigers
Royals

R
4
8

H
8
13

E
1
0


Padres
Cubs

R
0
4

H
6
13

E
0
0


Yankees
Rays

R
2
5

H
7
5

E
0
0


Astros
Giants

R
8
7

H
13
12

E
1
0


White Sox
Angels

R
4
3

H
10
9

E
1
0


Braves
Phillies

R
0
5

H
4
12

E
0
0


Marlins
Reds

R

P

H
 
P

E
 
D


Rockies
Diamondbacks

R
5
8

H
9
13

E
1
3

 
Friday's Probable Pitchers

Away

Home

Time (ET)

Away Probable

Home Probable

Pirates

Cubs

2:20 p.m.

Gorzelanny (3-3)

Gallagher (0-0)

Brewers

Red Sox

7:05 p.m.

Suppan (2-2)

Matsuzaka (6-0)

Mets

Yankees

7:05 p.m.

Santana (4-2)

Rasner (2-0)

Blue Jays

Phillies

7:05 p.m.

Purcey (0-0)

Moyer (2-3)

Nationals

Orioles

7:05 p.m.

Hill (0-0)

Olson (2-0)

Indians

Reds

7:10 p.m.

Sowers (0-0)

Cueto (2-4)

Royals

Marlins

7:10 p.m.

Tomko (1-4)

Miller (3-2)

Athletics

Braves

7:30 p.m.

Eveland (3-3)

Jurrjens (4-3)

Astros

Rangers

8:05 p.m.

Chacon (0-0)

Ponson (2-0)

Rays

Cardinals

8:15 p.m.

Sonnanstine (5-1)

Looper (5-2)

Twins

Rockies

9:05 p.m.

Blackburn (3-2)

Jimenez (1-3)

Tigers

D-Backs

9:40 p.m.

Bonderman (2-4)

Haren (4-2)

Dodgers

Angels

10:05 p.m.

Kuroda (1-2)

Saunders (6-1)

Padres

Mariners

10:10 p.m.

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