TPoSGD: Just thinking out loud…by basebal5 on Saturday, May 17, 2008 8:45 pm EDT
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This is a subject I’ve been meaning to get into for awhile but the trouble is–I hate to name names. Now don’t get me wrong, nobody has done anything wrong or controversial, it’s just that I’m not sure whether certain remarks made to me were off the record. The conversation was a casual one but something was said that has stuck with me and I’ve been meaning to explore it.
You’re just going to have to trust me on the particulars.
To begin with, I was talking with a baseball insider and we were discussing the rather strong opinion of a third party that we both have heard quite a bit from.
Pardon the vagueness–but I like both these guys and don’t wish to cause them any discomfort … all the more so because their paths cross on a fairly regular basis.
At any rate, our discussion was surrounding the third party’s distaste of things such as sacrifice hits, putting plays on and not being really big on the stolen base. He’s espouses an Earl Weaver “get on base and wait for the three-run jack” early 2000’s Oakland A’s sort of offensive approach to the game.
When I brought up this gentleman’s opinion with my insider acquaintance–asking for any insights why he holds such a strong opinion on the issue he informed me that he’s a big fantasy player and that shapes a lot of his thoughts on the game.
I am not really into that myself and my knowledge is minimal. I have no problem with folks who enjoy that sort of thing since we all have our ways of getting our baseball fix when games are not on and who am I to judge how a fellow fan scratches that particular itch?
What I do know of that particular breed is that they religiously check boxscores to see how their players did every game and I guess they assess wins and losses based on the stats of the players on their team. I also know that quite a few players in these leagues are into sabermetrics. It strikes me as the perfect marriage–for guys into stats and statistical analysis what better way to enjoy your (non game watching) baseball smak then involve yourself in a pastime that you have to understand the numbers better than the next guy?
I can't help but wonder if that's part of why quote/unquote “little ball” and manufacturing runs methodology have fallen into disfavour with segments of this group of fans. As I understand it, offensively you get points for runs scored, runs batted in, hits and steals–and they get you a certain amount of points.
However, when players on your fantasy team plays little ball/manufacturing run game it helps produce runs for the actual team on the field but for the player executing–he gets an out while a different player will get the run or the RBI. Put another way, run scoring in these fantasy leagues works differently that in the game on the field. With a man on first and second–nobody out the difference between your guy bunting and trying for a three run bomb is huge.
Before we proceed further, this is not a treatise on the merits of “little ball.” I do agree that giving away outs is generally a bad idea however I do feel strongly that it is at times necessary. If you continually lose one-run games because you are always trying for 2-4 runs with every swing then a rethink might be in order. Run scoring is important, run distribution all the more so. They do not hand out division titles and wild card berths to teams that score the most runs–they are given to teams that score more runs than the other team most frequently.
Generally, the team that scores the most runs have the best chance to score more runs than the other team but it is not an absolute. We need look no further than the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks (scored 712 runs and allowed 732 runs and finished 90-72) or the 1960 World Series where the New York Yankees scored twice as many runs (55-27) as the Pittsburgh Pirates and lost in seven games. A team has to be prepared to sacrifice run scoring for run distribution (i.e.: playing for one run) in order to win a given game.
However, in fantasy baseball there is no such thing.
Unless I'm mistaken (and feel free to correct me fantasy players–see title of post) there are no (or minimal) points awarded for moving along base runners unless it is through a hit or a walk. The fantasy game encourages a selfish style of play where nobody gets credit for hitting the ball to the right side with a man on second or moving two base runners into scoring position for somebody else to drive home.
The funny thing is–I started to explore sabermetrics since conventional measures didn’t satisfy me as respects player performance. To wit: Last night, the Blue Jays had Matt Stairs, Ken Mench and Lyle Overbay batting 5-6-7 last night. Suppose in that game that Stairs reached via an error and Mench doubled him to third; Overbay hits a deep fly ball to left field to score Stairs. Gregg Zaun and David Purcey both made out (one of few Purcey made last night it should be noted).
According to traditional stats, Stairs scored a run and Overbay received an RBI even though one made an out and the other would have been out had the defense done their job. The guy who did all the work and had the important at bat (Mench) gets diddley-squat. This is why (1) I prefer BA/OBP/SLG/OPS+ as a quick and dirty way to measure offensive contributions rather than runs and RBI and (2) why I began to look into sabermetrics.
I wanted to see who really deserved the credit in scoring runs.
However, in fantasy baseball it works more like traditionalist baseball in that the guy who crosses home plate or the bat that got him there gets the points/runs while the guy that may have been key gets taken to the nearest oak tree and hanged by the neck until dead.
Or not.
For those of you who are wondering if I have taken leave of my senses well let me assure you–I think I have done just that. Watching the Toronto Blue Jays the last two seasons would have Mahatma Ghandi looking for a high powered rifle and a clock tower. Last year, the Blue Jays had me reassess my views on little ball/manufacturing runs and this year they have me rethinking whether too much emphasis on OBP can cause more harm than good.
As I wrote on THT awhile back, I keep finding disconnects between what the numbers tell me and my eyes tell me–the Blue Jays offensive offense have brought it into bold relief. As I discussed yesterday in my THT column I try to look at the reasons why certain things are believed. In the case of what I have just written, I am simply wondering out loud why certain elements among baseball's fandom reacts so strongly to certain methods of run scoring.
Oh yeah, I did another column on MSN Canada that I alluded to on Wednesday. It is entitled Florida Sunshine. It has been a busy week–two articles there, two on The Hardball Times and this is my fourth blog post on BDD this week.
If the Blue Jays find a way to tick me off before the weekend is through I may make it nine blasts of synaptic flatulence.
By the way, Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley and here will be joining my favourite Blue Jays shock treatment therapists on their weekly podcast on The Score. They had me on last week and it was a ton of fun. Be sure to check out Drunk Jays Fans on Monday for a link to their podcast and give they and Bill a listen.
Best Regards
John
Lost in Werths Success is J-Rolls Poor Approachby basebal5 on Saturday, May 17, 2008 4:45 pm EDT
Had Jayson Werth not had an historic offensive performance
last night against the Toronto Blue Jays, Jimmy Rollins and his poor approach
at the plate and on the base paths would have been in question. The Jays sent out rookie left-handed starting
pitcher David Purcey whom the Phillies hadn’t faced before.
As a lead-off hitter on a team unfamiliar with the opposing pitcher,
it’s Rollins’ job to take pitches to help his teammates behind him ascertain a
number of things including the pitcher’s release point, pitch tells (tipping
off pitches), velocity, and movement. Additionally, Purcey had shown in his
previous start that he lacks control, walking seven hitters in four and
one-third innings against the Detroit Tigers.
Rollins is last year’s MVP in the National League; surely
he’ll do the right thing and take some pitches to lead off the first inning. Incorrect: Rollins swung at a
first-pitch fastball and flied out to center fielder Alex Rios.
Between then and Rollins’ next at-bat, Werth put the
Phillies on the board with a three-run homer. Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell got
on base ahead of him via walks. In the third inning, Rollins came up for his next at-bat and
bunted the first pitch he saw – a change-up – down the first base line for an
infield single. It was odd to see despite Rollins being one of the faster
players in baseball since he rarely attempts to bunt.
In two at-bats, the lead-off hitter saw a grand total of two
pitches. It didn’t get better. Shane Victorino walked and Chase Utley strode to
the plate with runners on first and second base with no outs. After working the
count to 1-1, Purcey threw a fastball that was close to being a strike. For
some reason, Rollins attempted to steal third base, and, for some reason,
stopped. Shane Victorino, bringing up the rear, assumed that Rollins wouldn’t
make a base running gaffe and continued towards second. Catcher Greg Zaun
strolled out towards Victorino between first and second (Rollins was standing
on second base) with nowhere to go, and tagged him out.
Presumably, manager Charlie Manuel has given Rollins free
reign on the bases, so the idea to steal third base was likely entirely
Rollins’ doing. You can’t really fault Victorino because if the play unfolds as
it normally does, the catcher either attempts to nail the lead base runner or
doesn’t bother to make a throw; rarely does the catcher go after the trailing
base runner.
Strategically, it makes no sense to attempt to steal third
base in that situation. You have runners on first and second with no outs with
the best hitters in the lineup looming in Utley, Howard, and Burrell. According
to BaseballProspectus.com’s run expectancy matrix, 1.50 runs are expected with
runners on first and second with no one out and 1.98 are expected with runners
on second and third with no one out (if Victorino hadn’t tried to advance,
runners on first and third with no outs would’ve given an expectancy of 1.72
runs). However, given Victorino’s speed and the hitting ability of the 3-4-5-6
hitters in the Phillies’ lineup, the gap between the two situations is
presumably less. And given that the score
was 3-0, it made even less sense to attempt to steal third base.
When Jesse Litsch – another pitcher the Phillies are
unfamiliar with – came in to relieve Purcey in the bottom of the fourth inning,
Jamie Moyer had the correct approach, and he’s a pitcher! He took three pitches
– a called strike followed by two balls – before swinging the bat. Rollins came
up for his third at-bat of the game and, what do you know, he actually takes a
couple pitches before deciding to swing. The result was better, too: he made
great contact and lined out to right fielder Matt Stairs, who made a nice catch
on the sinking liner.
Rollins was lucky Werth went 3-for-4 with 3 homers and 8
ribbies to overshadow his poor approach last night.
Baseball Transactions - Fridayby basebal5 on Saturday, May 17, 2008 2:29 pm EDT
Zach Jackson was part of the Lyle Overbay trade
between Toronto and Milwaukee (flickr)
Arizona
Conor Jackson - Missed 1 game (right hamstring injury).
Atlanta
Chipper Jones - Missed 1 game (groin).
Phil Stockman - Recalled from Richmond (AAA).
Chuck James - Optioned to Richmond (AAA).
Baltimore
Melvin Mora - Missed 2 games (right shoulder injury).
Cleveland
Jason Tyner - Designated for assignment by the Cleveland Indians.
Jeremy Sowers - Recalled from Buffalo (AAA).
Colorado
Matt Holliday - Back injury, day-to-day.
Houston
Ty Wigginton - Missed 3 games (rib injury).
Fernando Nieve - Recalled from Round Rock (AAA).
Geoff Geary - Groin, 15-day DL.
Kansas City
John Buck - Bereavement list, day-to-day.
Matt Tupman - Recalled from Omaha (AAA).
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mark Bellhorn - Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers to a minor league contract.
Milwaukee
Callix Crabbe - Returned as a Rule 5 draft pick from the San Diego Padres.
Mitchel Stetter - Optioned to Nashville (AAA).
Zach Jackson - Recalled from Nashville (AAA).
Minnesota
Howie Clark - Contract purchased from Rochester (AAA).
Matt Tolbert - Left thumb injury, 15-day DL.
NY Mets
Nelson Figueroa - Outrighted to New Orleans (AAA).
Oakland
Santiago Casilla - Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Gregorio Petit - Recalled from Sacramento (AAA).
Philadelphia
Carlos Ruiz - Stomach ailment, day-to-day.
Seattle
Jose Vidro - Missed 2 games (back injury).
St. Louis
Josh Kinney - Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
Jason Isringhausen - Hand injury, 15-day DL.
Chris Perez - Contract purchased from Memphis (AAA).
Tampa Bay
Jason Bartlett - Missed 1 game (personal reasons).
Texas
Milton Bradley - Missed 2 games (right shoulder injury).
Ben Broussard - Released by the Texas Rangers.
Toronto
David Purcey - Recalled from Syracuse (AAA).
Washington
Dmitri Young - Missed 39 games (lower back pain).
Short Stops Around the Majors for May 16, 2008by basebal5 on Saturday, May 17, 2008 7:11 am EDT
- Alfonso Soriano hit 2 home runs and drove in 4, and Sean Gallagher pitched 6 strong innings to pick up his first career victory as the Cubs beat the Pirates, 7-4.
- Adam Jones went 2-for-3, and Brian Roberts singled, tripled and scored twice as the Orioles defeated the Nationals, 5-3. Ryan Zimmerman had 3 hits and 2 RBI for
- Jose Guillen went 3-for-4 with 2 RBI, and Miguel Olivo added 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI as the Royals won their 5th in a row by beating the Marlins, 7-6. Dan Uggla singled, doubled, homered and scored 3 times for
- Josh Hamilton went 5-for-5 with a triple, 2 home runs, 5 RBI, and a walk, and David Murphy went 3-for-6 with a homer and 3 RBI as the Rangers exploded offensively for a 16-8 win over the Astros. Michael Young also had 2 hits, a home run, 3 RBI, and 3 runs scored for
- Nick Blackburn allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings, and Delmon Young went 3-for-4 with 2 doubles to lead the Twins over the
- Joe Saunders gave up 2 runs on 5 hits in 7 1/3 innings, and Maicer Izturis reached base 3 times and scored twice as the Angels fought past the Dodgers, 4-2.
- Gavin Floyd tossed 6 scoreless innings, and Alexei Ramirez hit his first career home run, a 2-run shot, to help the White Sox shut out the Giants, 2-0. Ray Durham had 3 hits, and Jonathan Sanchez pitched 6 2/3 solid innings for
- Jayson Werth hit 3 home runs and drove in 8, and Jamie Moyer pitched well enough to win as the Phillies cruised to an easy 10-3 victory over the Blue Jays.
- Brandon Phillips and Adam Dunn each hit a home run and drove in 2, and Johnny Cueto struck out 7 while allowing just 3 hits over 6 innings as the Reds held off the Indians, 4-3.
- Brian McCann went 3-for-4 with 2 doubles and an RBI, and Mark Kotsay drove in the winning run with an RBI double in the 8th inning as the Braves snuck past the Athletics, 3-2. Bobby Crosby had 3 hits for
- Andy Sonnanstine threw 8 strong innings, allowing just one run, and Akinori Iwamura led the offense with 3 hits and an RBI as the Rays downed the Cardinals, 3-1.
- Eric Byrnes collected 2 hits, a home run, and drove in 2, and Dan Haren tossed 7 solid innings as the Diamondbacks rallied to upend the Tigers, 4-3. Magglio Ordonez had 3 hits, and Miguel Cabrera hit a 2-run home run for
- Brian Giles went 4-for-5 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI, and Tad Iguchi had 3 hits, a home run, and drove in 2 as the Padres beat the Mariners, 6-4. Kenji Johjima had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI for
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