Eyre’s Season Misleading
Earlier today, the Chicago Cubs sent left-handed reliever Scott Eyre to Philadelphia for A-ball pitcher Brian Schlitter. A quick look at Eyre’s 2008 season (7.15 ERA in only 11 and one-third innings) tells you that the Phillies may be handling a live grenade at the cost of a Minor Leaguer with good stats: Schlitter averages over 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings and has a WHIP of just 1.26 along with his 2.31 ERA.
However, a deeper look at Eyre’s statistics will show you that Phillies GM Pat Gillick may not, in fact, be handling a live grenade. Between May 10 and June 13, Eyre appeared in 14 games and did not allow a single run. It was only in four of his last five appearances that he struggled. He allowed a total of nine earned runs in two and one-third innings, then hit the disabled list on June 28 and did not return until July 23.
Eyre’s recent shortcomings may be blamed partially on Cubs manager Lou Piniella for incorrect usage. Right-handed hitters have a 1.059 OPS against Eyre, but left-handers have just an .804 OPS. Between June 15 and July 31, Eyre faced 11 right-handers and got three of them out, but two were sacrifice flies. He also allowed five singles, a triple, a walk, and hit a batter. Furthermore, of the five runs he allowed in his two appearances on June 26 and July 31, four were runners inherited by a reliever after Eyre who allowed them to score.
As mentioned, Eyre came off of the disabled list on July 23, but Piniella only used him once between then and August 5, when the Cubs placed him on waivers. It’s hard to be sharp when you’ve just recovered from an injury and are only used once in almost two weeks.
Before we get into Sabermetrics, note that we are dealing with a very small sample size: Eyre has pitched just 11 and one-third innings this season.
Take a look at Eyre’s BABIP for 2008 and try to keep your eyeballs glued to your face. It’s .438. Point four-three-eight. Small sample size, but it does explain a bit of his woes — after all, he did give up only one extra-base hit to right-handers in his last two months of pitching. With a 26.5 LD%, we would expect a BABIP of about .385, which is still very high but still well below his current BABIP.
His current ERA (7.15) is more than twice his FIP (3.07) as well. Another good sign is that, even including his poor appearances, his strikeout rate is higher and his walk rate is lower than last season when he put up a 4.13 ERA in just over 52 innings for the Cubs.
The Phillies, most likely, will use Eyre strictly as a LOOGY. This is exactly how he should be used and exactly how Lou Piniella did not use him. He’ll pitch regularly to left-handed batters between the 6th and 8th innings and won’t be underused and due to his role of pitching to only one or two left-handers, he won’t be overused either. Considering that he had elbow problems in May and a groin problem in June, it’s works out great for both sides.
It’s a great trade for the Phillies. While Eyre is no Brian Fuentes, they get the left-handed specialist they’ve been after, and for a very cheap price — just a dime-a-dozen Minor League pitcher and just over $1 million left on Eyre’s contract. While you shouldn’t expect Eyre to be flawless the rest of the way, you certainly shouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near as bad as his surface statistics show.

August 7th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
I’m going to disagree with your argument Bill on a few different fronts. First, Schlitter is not a dime-a-dozen minor leaguer. Guys who throw 95 mph consistently don’t grow on trees. John Sickels even deemed him a “sleeper” from the 2007 draft.
Second, as you mentioned, Eyre has had elbow and groin problems already this year. Who’s to say he’s over either. Maybe that’s the reason he hasn’t pitched as well of late.
Third, I’ll throw out this year since it is a small sample size as you said, but here are Eyre’s numbers against lefties the past 2 seasons:
2007 - .253/.333/.453 against 75 lefty at bats
2006 - .281/.359/.517 against 89 lefty at bats
Not since 2005 has Eyre had a real good year against lefties. You can make the argument too that 2005 was a career year for him. Throw out 2005 and he has never had a WHIP under 1.33. And after the 1.33 it goes to 1.45, 1.48, 1.51, 1.55, 1.56…you get the picture.
Maybe Eyre will help the Phillies, but it’s hardly a GREAT trade. I can’t imagine he’ll make much of an impact one way or another. And to me, if a guy is not going to make much of a difference, you don’t give up a 22 year-old who throws 95 mph for a 36 year-old with a track record like Eyre’s.
August 7th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Good points as usual, Joe. I tend to be a pessimist when it comes to the Phillies’ farm system, so perhaps that jades my view on Schlitter. Regardless, he’s not close to being a top prospect and I have no problem trading him for someone who can help the Major League club presently. Schlitter might be able to help the Phillies around 2011 at the earliest.
He’s held LH hitters to an .804 OPS this season and last season that OPS was .786. That ‘06 .876 OPS is a bit concerning but appears to be more of a fluke than anything else.
His injuries are definitely a concern, but as I said, the role he’ll be used in (presumably — I’m giving Charlie Manuel a leap of faith here) will be conducive to recovering from the injury correctly without being either under- or over-used. We should hope that, unless he’s facing three or more consecutive LH hitters, he should never log more than 0.2 IP in an appearance. That’s where Lou Piniella failed… along with using Eyre against RH hitters.
August 8th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
The other issue here is that the Phillies are without Tom Gordon which forced JC Romero into the setup role. After Romero, the Phillies have JA Happ who is more of the long reliever-type and Les Walrond who was the opposite of impressive in his first outing. That leaves an opportunity for the team to acquire a LOOGY. As a LOOGY, Eyre is a decent choice although I’m skeptical of trades involving prospects and the Cubs.
In 1982, the Phillies sent Ryne Sandberg and Larry Bowa to the Cubs for Ivan DeJesus. I think we all know how that one turned out. Not comparing Schlitter to Sandberg but, at the same time, Sandberg was a 20th round pick.
They also lost Fergie Jenkins in a package deal to the Cubs for Larry Jackson and Bob Buhl in 1966 which also didn’t turn out too well.