The Chicago Cubs’ $48 million outfielder started off the season well enough, putting up a .955 OPS in his first 27 games, but Kosuke Fukudome has fallen off the charts ever since.

PECOTA pegged Fukudome as a .905 OPS hitter (.401 OBP/.504 SLG) and while the projections may have been a bit too friendly, not even a solid foundation of mathematics could have predicted that he’d be sitting with a .768 OPS on August 11. There’s a clear downward trend with a month-by-month look at his OPS.

March/April: .915

May: .792

June: .789

July: .688

August: .330

What’s Fuk’s problem? BABIP?

March/April: .392 BABIP/.323 xBABIP

May: .329/.337

June: .323/.302

July: .306/.310

August: .130/.287

Season: .325/.317

Only in August does Fukudome significantly underperform his expected BABIP, but his it really hasn’t been that high since May, so that’s a case of lowered expectations. He has, however, seen his line drives turn into fly balls as this graph, courtesy FanGraphs, shows:

Is he weak against a certain type of pitch? Surprising results from a look at Josh Kalk’s player card: Kosuke doesn’t hit fastballs well. He has only a .252 batting average and a .420 slugging percentage on fastballs. Conversely, he’s hitting .333 and slugging .463 or better against sinkers, curve balls, and sliders.

Even though he sees them much less than fastballs, Fukudome is similarly weak against splitters (.235 BA/.294 SLG) and cutters (.200 BA/.267 SLG). If you throw him hard stuff, you’ll probably get him out.

Cubs manager Lou Piniella is growing weary watching Fuk’s futility, saying, “We need him to start hitting. If not, I’m going to have to start looking for other options.”

If Fukudome starts riding the pine, Mark DeRosa (110 OPS+) and Reed Johnson (109 OPS+) will get more playing time in the outfield and Mike Fontenot (134 OPS+) will get more time at second base. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t skipped a beat (avg. 5.2 runs per game in their last nine games) even with futile Fuk in the lineup, so it’s hard to imagine that the offense will do anything but get better with him out of it.

Fortunately for the Cubs, his contract is back-loaded so they’re only paying him $6 million this season for a .768 OPS! With his offense or without it, the Cubs are making the playoffs, so it all works out in the end, right? What’s $42 million over the next three seasons anyway?

The Tampa Bay Rays have placed rookie All-Star third baseman Evan Longoria on the 15-day disabled list with a right wrist fracture, retroactive to August 8. To take his place on the roster, outfielder Justin Ruggiano was recalled from Durham (AAA).

Longoria, 22, sustained the injury on Thursday when he was hit by a pitch from Seattle closer J.J. Putz. He is currently hitting .278 and leads the Rays with 22 home runs, 71 RBI, 27 doubles and a .533 slugging percentage. His 22 homers rank sixth overall in the American League, lead all major league rookies and are a Rays rookie record. Longoria leads AL third basemen with a .971 fielding percentage. Prior to his injury, he had not missed a game since his April 12 call-up.

I’m going to try to get some more details on how much time he’ll miss and if surgery is required. This could be a devastating injury for Tampa Bay is Longoria is out for an extended period of time.

The Diamondbacks acquired Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds today in exchange for minor league pitcher Dallas Buck and two players to be named later.

Dunn, a free agent at the end of the season, is hitting .233 with 32 home runs and 74 RBIs. He has a .376 on-base percentage and a .528 slugging.

Buck, 24, this season went 1-4 with a 3.94 ERA in 9 games and 8 starts with Class A South Bend. Last Monday he was promoted to High Class A Visalia and made one appearance, pitching 5.0 shutout innings Thursday vs San Jose. He will be assigned to Class A Sarasota.

Buck was selected by Arizona in the third round of the 2006 first-year player draft. He attended Oregon State University, where he was a member of the 2006 NCAA national championship team. He made his professional debut last season by going 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 16 starts with Visalia.

The Diamondbacks claimed Dunn off waivers last week and finalized the trade this morning.

MY KIND OF TOWN, CHICAGO IS…
The Red Sox and Cardinals came to Chicago this weekend and so far so good for the North and the South Siders.

The Chicago White Sox hung on to beat the Boston Red Sox 6-5 yesterday thanks to great relief pitching from the ChiSox Octavio Dotel and continually poor starting pitching from the BoSox Clay Buchholtz. Carlos Quentin hit his American League-leading 32nd homer, Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye also went deep for the winners who have taken the first two of three of the series that ends tonight.

Dotel entered the game with one down in 7th with the bases filled and Mike Lowell who had a three-run 1st inning homer at the plate. Lowell grounded to third for the ‘round-the-horn double play and Dotel maintained the 6-5 lead with a scoreless 8th and Bobby Jenks pitched a perfect 9th for his 24th save in 27 chances.

Clay Buchholz (2-8) is now 0-6 in his last eight starts and allowed seven hits, five runs and three homers while throwing 74 pitches in just three-plus innings.

The Cubbies also made it two of three as Ryan Dempster (13-5) pitched the Cubs over the Cardinals, 6-2. The Cubs starter is now 11-2 at Wrigley Field this season allowing six hits and two runs in 6 2/3 innings. Kerry Wood threw a perfect 8th in his first game back after suffering from back spasms, and Carlos Marmol finished it.

Kosuke Fukudome continues to struggle. After he hit .236 in July and was hitting .125 in August going into last night’s game. He’s now hitting .269 overall. He had 19 walks in March and April. Since July 1, he has walked 12 times and struck out 30 times.

WALKOFFS
The LA Angels of leaders completed their first three-game sweep of the Bronx Bombers at home since May 1995 thanks to a Chone Figgins RBI single with one out in the 9th against closer Mariano Rivera giving the Halos a 4-3 victory. It was New York’s 10th loss in 15 games put them 8½ games behind AL East-leading Tampa Bay and four games behind Boston in the wild card race. The Yankees had leads in all three games and lost them all. The Yankees have dropped 10 of their last 15 and play nine of their next 12 on the road.

Mariano Rivera is resembling Eric Gagne in non-save situations. He has surrendered just one run in 29.1 save situation innings but has given up eight runs in 21 non-save innings pitched. Damaso Marte (0-2) took the loss giving up a leadoff single to Howie Kendrick. Gary Matthews Jr., then struck out. Marte then walked Mike Napoli and Figgins singled Rivera’s first pitch into right field. Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez (2-2) struck out the side in the 9th for the win.

THREE 5-4 WALKOFFS
The Brewers
It took until the 13th inning but Gabe Kapler hit his first career walk-off homer, enabling the Brewers to complete their sweep of the Nationals, 5-4. It was the fifth straight win for Milwaukee who improved to a major league best 23-10 in one-run games despite the team’s continuing problems with runners in scoring position. The Brewers stranded the winning run on second in the 9th and 11th, and left the bases loaded in the 10th, three of the total of 16 runners they left on base.

The Giants
The San Francisco Giants rallied against their division rival for the second straight day, scored twice in the 9th to beat the Dodgers 5-4. Hong-Chih Kuo allowed back-to-back singles to open the 9th, then pinch-hitter Omar Vizquel fouled out. Jose Castillo reached on an error by Los Angeles third baseman Casey Blake to load the bases. Emmanuel Burriss followed with an infield grounder, beating the throw to first from shortstop Angel Berroa and allowing Winn to score the tying run. Aaron Rowand scored from third on Eugenio Velez’s two-out infield single for the winning run. Rowand finished with four hits as the Giants won their third straight series for the first time since April 18-26, 2007.

Los Angeles had taken a 4-3 lead on Manny Ramirez’s two-out, two-run double in the 7th  for his only hit of the game. Ramirez is hitting .459 with two doubles, four home runs and 11 RBIs but the Dodgers are 4-5 since he arrived.

The Royals
Tony Pena Jr. drove home Mark Teahen with a base hit in the 12th inning to give the Kansas City Royals a 5-4 victory over the Minnesota Twins. Pena came into the game with a .148 average and in a 0-for-17 slump, went 2-for-2 after entering the game as a pinch-runner in the 8th. “That’s the first time that [a walk off hit] ever happened to me,” Pena said. “That’s just a great feeling. All the guys are on top of you, jumping on you and punching you. That’s the only time I think when you get punched it doesn’t hurt. This is definitely a confidence booster, especially having not played that much.”

The Royals avoided a series sweep and won for just the third time in 12 games against the Twins. “The easiest way to describe that game was we gave it away,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. “Early in the game, late in the game, it was probably as bad a defense as you can play. The first two runs they got was ridiculous — a chopper back to the mound and we’re not covering first base. We missed opportunities to score, but still, if we catch the ball and get the outs we’re supposed to get that’s a ‘W,’ not a loss.” Minnesota dropped a half-game back of the White Sox in the A.L. Central with the loss.

BIG NUMBER WINS
Willy Aybar homered twice and Shawn Riggans added a three-run homer of his own, and Rocco Baldelli returned after missing more than a year to celebrate the Rays’ 11-3 rout of the Seattle Mariners. It was the Rays 12th win in their last 16 games, but more importantly Maddon’s Men set a team record with their 71st win of the season. Tampa Bay bettered its previous best record of 70-92 in 2004.

Brandon Webb pitched six innings for his 17th win and hit a two-run double to lead the Arizona Diamondbacks to a 6-1 victory over the Atlanta Braves. Webb (17-4) allowed one run and six hits with two walks and five strikeouts. He threw 62 of 96 pitches for strikes in his shortest outing since three straight six-inning starts from June 28-July 8.

Cliff Lee worked eight shutout innings for his AL-leading 16th win and the Cleveland Indians completed a three-game sweep, beating the Toronto Blue Jays, 4-0. Lee (16-2) lowered his ERA to 2.45, moving him ahead of Oakland’s Justin Duchscherer (2.51) for the major league lead. He won his fifth straight decision and gave up eight hits, seven singles, and walked none. He struck out one. Lee is responsible for 16 of his teams 52 wins (31 percent), the highest percentage of any major league pitcher.

HURTIN’
White Sox pitcher Jose Contreras is out for at least nine months after rupturing his left Achilles’ tendon in Saturday’s 6-2 loss to the Red Sox. Contreras left the game after crumpling to the ground attempting to cover first on a grounder in the second inning. The 36-year-old Contreras limped past first base before clutching his leg and pounding his fist on the ground. He needed help to get off the field. Contreras, 7-6 with a 4.50 ERA, was activated before the game from a 15-day stint on the disabled list with tendinitis in his elbow.

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Orlando Hudson underwent surgery late Saturday night to repair a dislocated bone in his left wrist and will miss the remainder of the season. Hudson was placed on the 15-day disabled list before the game and right-handed pitcher Edgar Gonzalez was transferred to the 60-day disabled list. Hudson injured his wrist against the Atlanta Braves when he lunged to his left to try and field an errant throw from pitcher Juan Cruz and Braves catcher Brian McCann slid into Hudson, bending his left wrist backward and stripping the glove from his hand. Hudson’s surgery Saturday night was the first of two procedures that will be performed. He will have surgery within the next couple of days to repair ligament damage suffered on the play.

Arizona manager Bob Melvin said they could have done everything at once but Dr. Don Sheridan, a hand specialist, wasn’t around. Hudson, who hit .305 average in 107 games, also missed the final 21 regular-season games and the postseason in 2007 after tearing ligaments in the same wrist.

Royals second baseman Mark Grudzielanek may be out for the season after a MRI revealed a torn deltoid ligament in his right ankle. Grudzielanek went on the disabled list on Aug. 2, one day after colliding with first baseman Ross Gload while catching a fly ball to shallow right off the bat of Juan Uribe of the Chicago White Sox.

Michael Cuddyer suffered a non-displaced fracture of the second metatarsal bone in his left foot on Friday after he was hit by a line drive during Class AAA Rochester’s game against Indianapolis. A non-displaced fracture means that the bone is cracked, not completely broken. But it is a weight-bearing bone that, in many cases, needs at least four weeks to heal. Cuddyer has had three separate injuries to his hands, most recently a strained ligament in his left index finger that landed him on the 15-day disabled list for a second time this season.

All-Star left fielder Ryan Braun remained out of the Brewers lineup, saying his lower back injury had made little progress. He said it appeared the injury was to his intercostal muscles, which are several groups of muscles that run between the ribs.

The Angels placed OF Reggie Willits on the 15 day DL with a mild concussion.

The Cards lost starter Chris Carpenter to a strained right triceps. Carpenter was making his third start since Opening Day last year. He underwent elbow ligament replacement surgery in July 2007, but said the latest injury is not related to his elbow. He hopes to throw on the side Tuesday in Florida.

The Tampa Bay Rays placed outfielder Carl Crawford on the 15-day disabled list with a injured a tendon in his right middle finger making a check swing in Saturday night’s 11-inning win over the Mariners. The Rays activated outfielder Rocco Baldelli from the 60-day disabled list to start yesterday in right field, his first game in more than a year.

Baldelli missed the final 124 games of last season with a hamstring injury, and then missed all of this year with a mitochondrial disorder, a condition that slows muscle recovery and causes fatigue. Rocco went 1 for 3.

Houston slugger Carlos Lee, the NL leader in RBIs, broke his pinkie when he was hit by a pitch thrown by Bronson Arroyo and is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks.

Boston Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield will miss at least two starts and go on the disabled list because of a stiff right shoulder, manager Terry Francona said. Wakefield returned to Boston yesterday for a cortisone shot after cutting short a throwing session Saturday. The 42-year-old right-hander experienced some stiffness while holding Kansas City to four hits over six innings in an 8-2 win on Wednesday.

Phillies reliever Tom Gordon will see Dr. Lewis Yocum today for a second opinion on his injured right elbow, and could be facing Tommy John surgery.

The Padres placed C Josh Bard with a strained right triceps.

Joba Chamberlain plans to start a throwing program next week, with the idea of rejoining the New York Yankees’ rotation this month. Chamberlain was placed on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday due to rotator cuff tendinitis in his pitching shoulder. Chamberlain is 4-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 12 starts and 20 relief appearances.

Mets closer Billy Wagner is on track throw a couple of innings at Class A Brooklyn next weekend as he rehabs from a strained left forearm. He’s scheduled to return from the DL on Aug. 18.

Marlins LHP Andrew Miller (patella tendinitis in right knee) pitched 3 2-3 innings in a rehab start for Class-A Jupiter on Saturday. He gave up five hits and a run. He is scheduled to throw 75-80 pitches for Jupiter on Thursday.

Braves LHP Tom Glavine, on the DL since June 11 due to a strained left elbow, allowed three runs — two earned — and four hits in five innings Saturday night for Double-A Mississippi. He threw 74 pitches, 47 for strikes, and retired his final six batters. Glavine is expected to pitch Thursday against the Chicago Cubs.

Toronto’s Vernon Wells returned after missing 26 games with a strained hamstring and started as the designated hitter yesterday, but was 0-for-4.

DID YOU KNOW?
Red Sox manager Terry Francona had some problems getting into Cicago’s U.S. Cellular Field.

“I was trying to get in, (the security guard) wouldn’t let me in. He said, ‘What’s your name?’ And I said, ‘Francona.’ And he goes ‘I’ve got a Mr. Cona here.’

“So much for respect garnered around the league.”

SMART PICK-UP FOR THE FISH
In case you missed it, the Florida Marlins added some insurance to its catching corps, signing Paul Lo Duca to a minor league contract. Lo Duca, 36, will join Florida’s Class AAA Albuquerque Isotopes for what will be his second stint with the Marlins. For now, he’ll be insurance for John Baker and Matt Treanor, who returned Wednesday after missing nearly a month with a left hip strain. Lo Duca could get called up once rosters expand Sept. 1.

“I’m excited for the chance to get back. And I just want an opportunity to help a team that has a chance to go to the playoffs.” said Lo Duca, who was released by the Nationals on July 31.

Speaking of the Marlins, Josh Johnson stifled the New York Mets for seven innings, Dan Uggla had two doubles and three RBIs and the Florida Marlins had their way with Mike Pelfrey in an 8-2 win yesterday to avoid a three-game sweep by their NL East rivals. Luis Gonzalez and Mike Jacobs each homered. The Mets had won nine of Pelfrey’s last 10 starts, but he gave six runs in 4.2 innings yesterday. The Marlins have scored at least five runs in each of his three starts against them this season.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports or from your favorite bookstore.