Having fixed the amateur draft it’s time to fix the 2008 Blue Jays for a post season run. First, sharpen and sterilize the scalpel…

Oh, not that kind of fix–how silly of me since they’ve been hitting like their bodies lack the ol’ testosterone producers one would think their offense has been shifted into neuter this season.

But I digress and rather snarkily at that.

However, not all is lost this season–the Jays have a bazillion games coming up against teams directly ahead of them in the standings. In fact, 28 of their final 40 games are against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees and while it’s a longshot bordering on impossible–win 18-20 of them and chances are good they’ll be in the thick of things–the rest of their schedule is against Minnesota (3-0), Chicago (4-0) and Baltimore (8-4 and batting .341 with RISP).

The Jays have Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch and David Purcey all throwing very well in that rotation–Litsch’s fastball hit 93-94 MPH in his last start and Purcey has pitched six innings in three of his last four starts (averaging two runs given up in those turns) with a BB/9 of 3.13 after walking 11 in 7.1 IP in his first two starts and has a K/9 of 7.83.

Their bullpen has the best ERA in the AL (3.00–even after Frasor’s 5 ER/0.1 IP act of arson) by a long way over No. 2 (3.32) Rays. Just keep Jason Frasor out of high leverage situations and they’re good; and no, this is not snark based on his imitation of Thich Quang Duc on August 14, I wrote back in mid-June in previewing the Jays/Brewers series for Brew Crew Ball:

…and Jason Frasor is downright infuriating–an electric arm that tends to wet the bed in big situations. He has closer stuff but when he’s been placed in that role becomes the other team’s secret weapon. He should be a star reliever except he he celebrates the Brewers next division title when the pressure is on. If the game is close and Gibbons brings in Frasor, I suggest Brewer fans pop the bubbly and get the celebration underway.

…and in May, 2007 at The Hardball Times:

…he stopped trusting his stuff and was afraid to challenge hitters … would fall behind, then try to muscle up, causing his fastball to lose its sink and his slider its bite with predictable results … He was asked to close in his rookie year and this year. In the middle two years of his career, when he was not closing, Frasor (in 124.2 IP) had a BB/9 of 3.25 and a K/9 of 8.16. In seasons he’s been asked to finish games, his BB/9 is 4.82 and his K/9 is 7.39 (in 80.1 IP). He looks like he’s afraid to challenge hitters with his stuff and now is starting to walk guys, then getting hammered when forced to come in. It’s 1996 all over again.

Bottom line, I’ve been down on Frasor in high-leverage situations for a while now and I’m entitled to gripe.

Regardless, the pitching is there for a 18-20 win run against the trio above them in the standings–the question, as always, has been the offense. As we discussed in Character issues on Wednesday (again at THT) the biggest concern is what will happen should the Jays be in a position to surge into the playoff picture: “Again, we see when there is a degree of expectation on the lineup they simply spit the bit.” Four times in 2008 the Jays were poised to muscle their way into contention and on all four occasions the situational hitting simply collapsed (.163 w/RISP).

So, we’re going to focus on putting the best lineup on the field for the rest of the season (until Scott Rolen returns assuming he does). First, one transaction–grab Richie Sexson to platoon with Lyle Overbay at first base. Overbay is hitting lefties .236/.315/.273 while Sexson is batting .325/.414/.578. Although it sounds sick, you use Eckstein as your DH against southpaws (.321/.391/.474). One last semi-platoon is at catcher letting Gregg Zaun play against LHP unless it’s against a team that likes to steal.

Ideally, you’re trying to cobble together enough offense to carry John McDonald’s glove in the lineup. Cito can juggle the lineups depending how the hitters perform.

Against left handed pitching (batting totals are versus the split):

1. DH David Eckstein .321/.391/.474
2. SS John McDonald .255/.308/.362
3. CF Vernon Wells .318/.375/.439
4. 1B Richie Sexson .325/.414/.578
5. LF Adam Lind .327/.382/.551
6. RF Alex Rios .256/.288/.376
7. Ca. Gregg Zaun .250/.343/.382 (unless they need Barajas’ arm)
8. 2B Marcos Scutaro .236/.308/.330
9. 3B Joe Inglett .211/.286/.316

Against right handed pitching:

1. 3B Joe Inglett .300/.354/.429
2. 2B Marcos Scutaro .262/.354/.323
3. RF Alex Rios .288/.341/.433
4. Ca. Rod Barajas .285/.337/.480
5. LF Adam Lind .283/.314/.480
6. 1B Lyle Overbay .276/.387/.446
7. CF Vernon Wells .256/.288/.376
8. DH Matt Stairs .254/.351/.404
9. SS John McDonald .186/.246/.237

Eckstein becomes the No. 1 sub should Scutaro or J-Mac need a night off and the first bat off the bench if they need a base runner while Sexson gets the nod when they need pop.

Inglett has a handful of games at third base but having his bat over at the hot corner should work with Johnny Mac beside him.

The magic number is four-plus, as in four-plus runs–the Jays pitching has been solid enough that the club is 27-14 in games that they have scored 4-6 runs. When they score just three runs they are 8-9 and have been beaten 16 times by teams that have scored three or fewer runs.

All I’m reading into these numbers is simply that an extra run here or there probably means more to the Blue Jays than any other team in the AL due to their outstanding pitching and if the Jays are going to make a late-season miracle run each extra run is absolute gold. A good pitching performance is holding the opposition to four runs or less, and outstanding effort is three or less; using that criteria, the Jays have wasted 24 good pitching performances and (as mentioned) 16 outstanding ones.

Toronto cannot afford to waste any more.

There you have it–c’mon Blue Jays fans, let’s hear your thoughts (other than the ones questioning my intelligence or sentience–we already know about that).

Best Regards

John

…Team USA rebounded after loosing to Cuba in extra innings to beat Canada today 5-4. Terry Tiffee (Dodgers) doubled in the go ahead run in the seventh inning with two outs to bring the USA squad back to .500 with a 2-2 record in round robin play. Brian Barden hit a home run as he replaced Jason Nix who had a day earlier fouled a ball off his left eye. He needed micro surgery to fix it and will be out for the remainder of the Olympic Games.

Team USA will face off against Team China on Monday.

…The New York Yankees have fired two scouts that have been linked to kick backs from contracts with Latin American players, this report coming from the Associated Press. The two scouts named were Carlos Rios (Director of Latin American scouting) and Ramon Valdivia (Director of Dominican Republic scouting). They were accused of skimming six figures from the deals. The Yankees and GM Brian Cashman have declined to comment.

…Instant Replay is becoming more of a reality, as Major League stadiums are being wired for it. Commissioner Bud Selig is confident that the technology to help Umpires will be up and ready to go very soon.

Quoth the Commish:

“I want to make sure that if and when we do it, it’s really good, it’s perfect,” Selig said at the conclusion of a two-day owners’ meeting. “It’ll be very limited. I want to make sure, and I’m not quite certain yet. But we should have answers very shortly.”

…It’s been just over a year since the The Human Rain Delay (Mike Hargrove) up and left the Seattle Mariners managing job because he’d “lost the passion”. Well it seems the passion is back and Grover would like nothing more than to Manage in the Big Leagues again. But now he’s doubling back on the whole passion thing.

“I really misspoke when I said I had lost my passion for the game,” Hargrove said. “I think my competitive edge was dulled. Now, it’s back.”

He also goes on to say that the team who might pick him up, will have to take him at his word when he says he wont up and leave in the middle of the season or a winning streak for that matter.

…It might not be what Joe Torre expected, but it’s a start. What am I talking about? Well Manny Ramirez finally got his hair cut, just not what a lot of people expected. He got about an inch of his signature dreadlocks cut off - now you can actually see his name on the back of his jersey.

“He came in and showed me. As Billy Crystal said in ‘Analyze That,’ it’s a process. He took a little bit off. It’s within the rules of cleaning it up a little bit. Right now, it’s around his shoulders. It’s not covering his name up. We’ll continue to monitor it.”

“He haunts me with this,” Torre said. “He says every time he gets a hit, it’s the hair. I say it’s the ability. He knows as well as everybody else around here that his ability is special. He’s a character.”

…According to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, Royals catcher Miguel Olivo accepts his reduced suspension and fine. All of this dates back to August 3rd, when he charged the mound after being plunked by Chicago White Sox reliever DJ Corrasco.

…Former Houston Astro Craig Biggio was on “The Show” with Rob Dibble and Kevin Kennedy (Home Plate XM 175) on Friday and commented about the ‘Stros retiring his #7.

“How cool is that…getting your number retired…who would have thought…I was able to compete for a certain period of time and now they’re retiring my jersey…It blows me away to be honest with you…I’ve been so lucky, 20 years on one team, 3,000 hits, the people of Houston have just been so wonderful to me, the game of baseball, I owe everything to it…getting involved with kids and staying involved with the Astros, it’s all about giving back, who would have thought? I would have never have thought…”

…According to Ken Rosenthal’s latest, Barry Bonds wont play for the rest of ‘08 and most likely wont file a grievance with the backing of the Players Union. Bonds’ agent tried one last time to reach out to the Tampa Bay Rays who had both Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria have gone down with injuries.

Last night’s Phillies-Padres game didn’t figure to be very interesting. It featured one always terrible offense and one currently terrible offense in the league’s most pitcher-friendly stadium, Petco Park. Additionally, both teams’ starting pitcher would have to sprinkle steroids in his cereal just to have his fastball hit 88 MPH on the radar gun.

Despite expectations, the game was actually quite fun to watch. The combined age of the two starters — Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux — comes out to more than 87 years and they have 45 years of Major League experience under their belts. In their fourteen combined innings of work in the game (seven apiece), they gave up only one run (a Pat Burrell homer off of Maddux in the seventh), eight hits and two walks, and struck out six.

Maddux got about an even split of ground balls and fly balls (9-8); Moyer was more grounder-prone (12-7). Moyer threw 67% of his pitches for strikes; Maddux 69%. Maddux threw first-pitch strikes 69% of the time; Moyer 64%.

Moyer’s fastball averaged 81.9 MPH and maxed out at 83.6 MPH; Maddux averaged 84.96 and maxed out at 86.5 MPH on his fastball.

Both had similar horizontal movement on their fastballs: 7.12 for Moyer; -7.55 for Maddux (the Pitch F/X data is from the catcher/umpire’s perspective which is why Moyer’s is positive and Maddux’s is negative). Moyer, however, had a bit more vertical break on his fastball: 5.60 compared to Maddux’s 4.78.

All six of their strikeouts (Moyer 2, Maddux 4) were on called third strikes.

Maddux’s victims:

• First inning: Jimmy Rollins on a fastball, 85.8 MPH.
• Second inning: Pat Burrell (no PFX information available).
• Fourth inning: Ryan Howard on a fastball, 86.0 MPH.
• Fifth inning: Geoff Jenkins on a fastball, 85.9 MPH.

Moyer’s victims:

• Second inning: Chase Headley on a fastball, 83.1 MPH.
• Sixth inning: Greg Maddux on a fastball, 82.3.

Would you believe it? Not only are all their strikeouts backwards-K’s, they were all on fastballs, arguably the least-intimidating fastballs in the league.
Also contributing to the low run-scoring were the great defensive plays on both sides. Click here for a recap which features highlights of these plays:

• Greg Maddux adeptly covers first on Shane Victorino’s attempted bunt in the top of the first inning. [starts at 0:39]
• Ryan Howard starts and finishes a 3-6-3 double play in the bottom of the first. [watch]
• Chase Utley fields a grounder up the middle and quickly throws to first to record the out in the bottom of the third. [starts at 0:49]
• Jimmy Rollins fields a grounder in shallow left field, jumps in the air and throws to first a la Derek Jeter in the bottom of the fifth. [starts at 0:56]
• Luis Rodriguez fields a sharp line drive, wheels and throws to first to retire Victorino in the top of the sixth. [starts at 1:12]
• Ryan Howard fields a slow grounder and flips to Jamie Moyer who makes quite an athletic grab while touching the first base bag in the bottom of the sixth. [starts at 1:18]
• Jimmy Rollins fields grounder to his left, dives, and throws to first base in the bottom of the 8th. [starts at 1:38]

It may not have been as exciting as this 19-17 game from August 12, but entertaining nonetheless. Pitching and defense: quality baseball.

As major league squads go down to the wire trying to sign this year’s major league draft selections, anther top prospect already entrenched in the minor league system joins BDD Live tomorrow. Join host Eric SanInocencio as Baseball Digest Daily brings you another edition of one of the top podcasts covering our national pastime.

Baltimore Oriole prospect Chris Tillman, a central part of the deal that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle, comes in studio to talk about the move to the Baltimore organization. Tillman is having an outstanding season at the Double-AA level, and will share his thoughts on his pitching style, his pro timetable and even his battery mate, fellow top prospect Matt Wieters.

From there we’ll analyze the week that was in the majors, complete with a waiver wire deal that saw Adam Dunn head West. Jim McLennan from AZ Snakepit joins us to lend some insight on the deal. McLennan’s popular blog has been in the middle of every move made out in the Desert, and he’ll give us the pulse of Diamondback fans after this blockbuster trade made earlier this week.

So hop on over to http://www.blogtalkradio.com/baseballdigestdaily to listen to the show live at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on Saturday, or pick up the recording in its entirety upon completion of the live show.

Or, to download this and all other podcast archives via iTunes, just do the following:
1) Open iTunes.
2) Click on the Advanced menu at the top.
3) Then click on Subscribe to Podcast.
4) Enter this URL http://www.blogtalkradio.com/baseballdigestdaily/feed and click ok.

Ok, so they’re not quite MY Royals, but if you read my “Off the Cuff” article last week, you know that I have a personal interest in the organization now.

Anyway, the Kansas City Royals have announced they’ve reached an agreement with Eric Hosmer, the club’s first-round draft pick this season. Hosmer was the No. 3 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft on June 5. The bonus is said to be in the neighborhood of $6 million.

In his senior season at American Heritage High School in Plantation, Fla., Hosmer batted .470 with 11 home runs, 27 RBIs, 49 runs and 14 stolen bases. He played this summer for the Midland Redskins, a team based in Cincinnati that finished second in the Connie Mack World Series.

“We are delighted to come to terms with Eric Hosmer. We felt that he was the best high school position player in the draft,” said Dayton Moore, Royals’ Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager. “I also have to recognize the support of David and Dan Glass, and the great work of our scouting staff, for helping to get Eric into our organization.”

“(Hosmer’s) an impact bat,” said Moore. “He potentially could play a Gold Glove defense at first base and potentially could be a middle-of-the-order production bat.”

The Pittsburgh Pirates announced they have agreed to terms with third baseman Pedro Alvarez, the club’s firstround selection (second overall) in the 2008 June draft. The announcement was made by Neal Huntington, Pirates Senior Vice President and General Manager.

Reports have the signing bonus pegged at $6 million. It is not a major league contract. Good for the Pirates!

Alvarez, 21, is considered the top prospect in this year’s draft by many industry publications. Baseball America ranked Alvarez as the top prospect in its 2008 Draft Preview Edition’s Top 200 List. It also ranked the left-handed hitting third baseman
as the “Best Power Hitter” among college players.

“Pedro Alvarez is an accomplished college hitter with the potential to be a middle of the order bat at the major league level for us. Equally important, he is a quality young man who comes from a very strong family. We appreciate their trust in the Pirates organization,” said Huntington. “Pedro is a high-end talent. We are excited to add him to our system and about the potential impact he can have.”

Attached is the data supporting Joe Ribando’s article on strength of schedule.

Strength of Schedule

Mayo has an update on the Nationals negotiations with their top pick, Aaron Crow. According to Mayo, Crow did NOT signs with the Nats. Wow!

Our good friend Jim Callis has the news at BA. Allan Dykstra gets $1.15 million.