Well, I think I can let 2008 go now.

The Toronto Blue Jays had a pennant winning pitching staff, a playoff-calibre defense and an AA offense.

When they needed the lumber–the hitting disappeared … especially in clutch situations. The Blue Jays had a glass ceiling that was six games over .500–five times they had a chance to break through (and reach six games over) and five times they failed. In those games they scored a grand total of 13 runs, hit below the “Mendoza Line” (.199) and batted .167 with runners in scoring position.

They had a chance to make a statement going into the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July and again couldn’t reach .200 in the final four games (coming off a five game winning streak–oddly enough, they still haven’t broken through to a six gamer since 2004) leading up to the deadline with an .030 mark w/RISP.

The Jays had a shot playing somewhat meaningful games in September. They swept Boston in Fenway and took the first game against the Yankees at home and on August 19, they had reached five games over .500 for the first time since May 30.

In the nine games before the Yankees predictably beat up on John Parrish today the pitchers posted a tidy 3.38 ERA (including a 3.51 mark from the starters with an average of over 6 IP)–certainly pennant drive level performance.

The Jays’ lineup got them three wins.

The killer was the three game losing streak where they received starts consisting of two complete game five-hitters (1 BB 19 K) and a quality start (6.2 IP/3 ER) and an aggregate pitching line of 24 IP 20 H 3 BB 21 K where the starting pitching surrendered just a single walk in 22.2 IP (for a BB/9 of 0.4) but the bats went dead scoring just three runs.

The worst part of this whole season is the knowledge that this was a post season contender done in by an inept lineup.

To me, when the pitching staff holds the opposition to three runs or less–that’s a very well pitched game. If they hold the other team to two or fewer (or three or less in extra innings)–that is an outstanding effort.

The Jays have 19 losses this season when holding the other side to three or fewer runs–among those, there are 11 games that could be described as outstanding. The Jays lost two 10 inning games where the held the opposition to three runs, and had 12-inning losses where they allowed one and three runs. They have seven other losses where they were beaten by two or fewer runs.

What makes me think it’s the gag reflex on the part of the offense is that 10 of the 19 losses were inflicted by the clubs just ahead of them in the standings: Rays (5–all of them from July 18-August 28), the Yankees (3) and the Red Sox (2).

The Jays had 141 opportunities in those 19 games (w/RISP) and managed just 14 hits (.099) and presumably, some of those hits accounted for the run scoring that the Blue Jays did manage to generate.

However, here is where I give the pitchers their props about being of pennant-winning calibre–in those ten losses against their division rivals the staff held the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees to an ERA of 2.48. They stepped up in a big way and certainly gave the team a chance to contend–heck, the Blue Birds would’ve needed to score a mere three runs to haul away a win.

This is why this season has been so painful–knowing the difference between meaningful September baseball and where we are right now were just a few key hits. Yet, the Jays clearly lacked the personnel to get those hits and what added to the frustration was J.P. Ricciardi’s season long inertia regarding the offense. It took the hiring of Cito Gaston to solve the black hole in left field. Designated hitter was likewise from mid-May as Matt Stairs (BTW … I’ll be cheering you on in Philadelphia–make us proud and I hope to see you back in the organization once you hang up the spikes … thanks for everything Matt, you’re a class act) batted .221/.337/.341 with just five HR (overall, the position has yielded just a .227/.329/.384 line) and the Jays lacked that one guy who could go deep at any given moment and Ricciardi spent the season telling us why a big bat was a bad fit.

As I’ve said before–I will go to my grave believing that the biggest reason the Jays missed the 2008 post season was J.P. Ricciardi. He deserves full props for putting together two-thirds of a playoff team but like the team he assembled–couldn’t find it in him to make the big play. The Jays were in playoff position all season but it was always Ricciardi at bat with 2008 on the line and he continually took two fastballs down the middle before swinging at the slider off the plate.

Random thoughts…

I wrote this post while watching the Yankees-Blue Jays game and may as well share some points from it.

To begin with–the Jays lost a game they should have won on Friday and with John Parrish on the mound I really had no expectations of a win today. I was more worried about the defense behind him than run scoring since I figured Parrish would give up sufficient runs where a good offensive effort by the Jays would go for naught.

Call it even.

I think the first innings would have turned out differently had Johnny Mac been at short and turned two hits into outs. As I was watching Darrell Rasner do his best Matt Garza impersonation, I kept thinking to myself that I could come up with an unsolvable riddle:

“What AL pitcher totally owned the Jays in 2008?”

I mean, that would be like asking who slept with Paris Hilton in 2008. It seems like pretty much anyone–I throw right handed and my left shoulder was badly mauled by a truck accident in 1991 and I still think I could have thrown five decent innings left handed against the Jays this year.

It took six plus innings to finally take the boots to Rasner who has a 5.28 ERA against teams outside of Canada but is just 4.07 against the Jays this year–how many pitchers have the Jays helped make millions in their next contract this season? I wrote a couple of weeks ago at THT that five of the bottom six teams in ERA have held the Jays to below the Mendoza Line w/RISP (Baltimore being the exception) in 2008.

Sheesh.

At any rate, I was happy to see Cito Gaston not pinch hit for Travis Snider on either big occasion; as I said, in my mind–although not mathematically eliminated–the Jays are done for the year … let the kid learn. Those are great experiences for him–the Jays won, so no harm done and Cito can sit down with him and help him understand what he needs to do the next time the situation arises.

I had a bad feeling going into the ninth–I know Gaston would never do it, but I was hoping to see Scott Downs pitch the ninth as I was having flashbacks to the June 5 game when Jason Giambi hit a walkoff three-run bomb off B.J. Ryan. Sure enough, history almost repeated itself. Ryan walked the first two, and Alex Rodriguez scorched what I thought was a sure double but Jose Bautista converted it into a nice 5-to-3 double play capping a solid 2-for-4, 2 RBI afternoon for our newest infielder.

Nobody is more relieved than he I’m guessing. It was hard not to feel sorry for A-Rod though–normally that would be a game tying/winning hit but once again, it’ll be used by idiots to prove that the Bronx Bombers would be better off without him.

If the Jays had A-Rod this season, the Jays would be very much in the post season hunt thank-you-very-much.

I have a bad feeling about tomorrow–I think Halladay will be nails (to borrow a line from DJF), bonerrific (ibid) etc. but he may have to throw a shutout if he wants the “W.” Our post season hopes may be in the past tense but the Cy Young race is very much alive and hopefully the offense can do their part. I like Doc’s chances since soon (if it hasn’t occurred already) the team will realize the Fat Lady has started her second encore for the Jays and I think we’ll see some offensive fireworks at the end as we did in the waning days of 2006 and 2007 as the hitters relax without the pressure to produce.

Vernon Wells leads the team in HR and RBI (15 and 62) in just 81 games played. I think the Jays will have a player smack 20 HR–I can’t help but wonder if the Jays might be in the hunt had be been healthy all year.

Oh well.

This week’s nonsense:

From The Hardball Times: Boras hole burying Alvarez?

From MSN Canada: Halladay for the Cy Young

There were problems with this link when I first posted it, so I’m going to include it here: Do not sweat Burnett. It’s why I’m not overly concerned about his opting out despite his 10-3, 3.59 ERA work over is last 14 starts.

Best Regards

John

…Three more minor league players have been suspended for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs under minor league baseball’s drug policy. Justo Arias and Rafael Martinez of the Yankees system tested positive for Stanzolol and Cubs farm hand Jhon Rodriguez tested positive for nandrolone.

There suspensions will start at the beginning of next season. All three were playing in the Dominican Summer League, and brings the total to 41 players suspended since July 25th.

…More drama in the Barry Bonds legal case, federal prosecutors could go after the family of Bonds’ former trainer Greg Anderson. The Feds hope this will put pressure on Anderson to come forward and testify against Barry. A lawyer for Anderson’s wife said that prosecutors are looking to charge her and her mother with tax related crimes.

“There are violations that both Nicole and Madeleine are worried about,” Nicole Gestas’s attorney, Charles J. Smith of Redwood City, Calif., told the Times.

“They are matters that I don’t believe would rise to the level they would prosecute under the current standards of the U.S. Attorney’s office. But in this circumstance, perhaps they’ll ignore their own standards to prosecute Madeleine or her daughter to get what they want.”

…Baltimore Orioles pitcher Daniel Cabrera started serving his six game suspension last night, and will only miss one start. The suspension was appealed but upheld, Cabrera was suspended for throwing at the New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez.

…The Yankees have unveiled their ticket prices for the 2009 season, and it’s not pretty. Even sitting in the outfield bleachers is going to cost you an arm and a leg. Invoices for season ticket holders are going out in Mid-September. Fans who decline, wish to switch seats or down grade their plans will go into a pool with other fans for seats.

…The Arizona Republic is reporting that the DBacks have claimed southpaw Will Ledezma off of waivers from the San Diego Padres. Billy Buckner will most likely be optioned to Triple A Tucson to make room for Ledezma.

…Not that it’ll be a big surprise to Royals fans, but catcher Miguel Olivo has no plans to return to KC in 2009. When asked if he would return next year, his exact words were “Hell No”. There’s a mutual option on his contract for 2009 so even if the Royals exercise it, he can turn it down by not picking up the option.

Birmingham, Ala. –  BDD Live returns this Saturday with lots of ground to cover, and three more high profile guests to give you all the latest information in the baseball world. Join host Eric SanInocencio as we recap the week that was in the minor and major leagues.
 
Leading things off will be Cincinnati Reds prospect Yonder Alonso. Alonso, the 8th overall selection in this year’s draft, had an outstanding career for the Miami Hurricanes and will now look to continue his success in the Reds farm system. Alonso’s currently playing for the Sarasota Reds, and will share his thoughts on being drafted and taking the next step to stardom in the major leagues.
 
Next up is more draft discussion, as Baseball Prospectus’ own Kevin Goldstein steps in studio and will provide commentary on the Pedro Alvarez situation. Alvarez, the number two overall selection in the 2008 draft, was placed on the restricted list this week. His agent, Scott Boras, and the Pittsburg Pirates are in the midst of legal claims regarding the contract Alvarez appeared to agree to at the signing deadline. There are several layers to this developing legal situation, and its effect is already being felt all over the major leagues. Goldstein will share up to the minute happenings as the commissioner’s office prepares to square of with the Players Association.

Our second half returns us to the action on the field, with ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark joining the show. Stark has been a senior baseball writer for ESPN.com since 2000, contributing a Rumblings and Grumblings column and his tilted look inside baseball’s numbers and quirks, the Useless Information Department. The well-known baseball scribe will update us on the playoff chase, and hit all the interesting stories and subplots in the regular seasons’ final months.

So join us on Saturday at 12:00 PM Eastern Time at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/baseballdigestdaily to listen to the live broadcast. You can also download the show or listen to the recording upon completion.

Or, to download this and all other podcast archives via iTunes, just do the following:

1) Open iTunes.
2) Click on the Advanced menu at the top.
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4) Enter this URL http://www.blogtalkradio.com/baseballdigestdaily/feed and click ok.

Pull yourself away from the lure of the pennant drives, baseball purists! Hidden away on a couple of teams that have been never really been in contention this year are a couple of pitchers locked in a fierce battle for the AL Cy Young, with ERA’s in the mid 2’s. The Blue Jays’ Roy Halladay made a push in August with a 4-1 record and a 1.96 ERA, only to be done one better by Cliff Lee, who went 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA. Outstanding!

Sadly, little attention is being paid to this fight because it is widely (and correctly) assumed that the result is already a foregone conclusion. Barring a monumental collapse, Cliff Lee will take the prize due to his exceptional winning percentage (he record currently sits at 19-2). Get ready for writers to wax poetical about how “even through the dog days of a lost season, Lee refused to lose. When he took the ball, the team behind him knew winning was the only option”, or some such silliness.

But we know better, right? We know that wins are a terrible indicator of a pitchers performance seeing that they are half due to factors out of a pitcher’s control, that “pitching to the score” is a myth, and that the run and a half difference in run support the two pitchers have received from their teams (Halladay has received a paltry 4.63 per game from Toronto’s woeful offence, compared to Lee’s 6.02 runs per game - 10^th best in the league) is key to the difference in their winning percentages. So let’s look at some better indicators.

First, from the world of fantasy baseball – these aren’t perfect either, but I figure they’re the sort that some particularly deep-thinking member of the BWAA might consider:

Not much to choose from. Lee is allowing slightly fewer runs, but Halladay has pitched about an extra two and a half games (he is averaging 7.5 innings a start compared to Lee’s 7.1). Of course the raw number of strikeouts is silly, so let’s quickly move on to the holy trinity of pitching stats:

Without getting too far into BABIP theory, these are holy because they’re the fundamental things that pitchers can really control- how many opposing batters a pitcher strikes out, walks, and how many balls have no chance of going for home runs.

There’s a ton of luck involved in how many hits a pitcher gives up, and one of the reasons that Halladay’s WHIP is better is that he’s been getting luckier in how many balls have dropped in. (His BABIP is .272, compared to Lee’s .285 – both tend to regress to .300). Halladay he leads the league with 12 HBP, but gets off the hook as they are not included in WHIP. How does all this work out? Well, a stat like DIPS (hat tip to BDD’s own Voros McCracken) that just takes into account what a pitcher can control gives the edge to Lee, with a DIPS of 2.76, with Halladay right behind in the AL at 3.08.

Anyway, Halladay has been the more dominant strikeout pitcher (he’s throwing his Curve much more this season), while Lee has given up fewer free passes (his control over his changeup has been vastly improved). And the Doc has kept more many more balls on the ground with his sinker.

Another favorite (and not entirely-pointless) criteria for the Cy Young is a pitcher’s consistency. Lee comes out slightly on top with 20 quality starts to Halladay’s 18 (despite Halladay) having one more game started. Incidentally, an example of what run support can do for a pitcher is that Lee has never lost a game that he has pitched a quality start in, while four of Halladay’s losses have been quality starts. As well, Lee picked up win in a game when he did not pitch a quality start, (he allowed 6 runs in 5 innings against Texas, but the Indians won 15-9) while Halladay has never been gifted a win by his offence.

Some more random points to stir up debate:

• Lee pitches in a more favorable home park - the Indian’s home field has been the least HR friendly “park effect” of any stadium this season.
• Halladay has been helped by the best infield defense in the AL (in terms of both range and fielding percentage) behind him – and he still has 9 unearned runs (another lousy stat) to Lee’s 3.
• Only one runner has attempted to steal on Cliff Lee this season (he made it). Halladay is notoriously slow to the plate and has allowed 11 steals, (with 5 runners caught).
• Leaving the realm of cold, hard, statistical arguments for a second, Lee had a 6.29 ERA last season and was sent to the minors last season, for crying out loud. Maybe he deserves a little respect (and Halladay already has his Cy).
• Doc Halladay is a horse. In addition to 8 complete games, Halladay received a hold this season when he pitched on his throw day due to a depleted bullpen. He went 2 1/3 scoreless innings and gave up one hit, preserving a one-run lead against the Phillies in a game the Jays went on to win.

I’m not going to try to provide some final, all-encompassing number that distills everything on paper down to who is having the best season (although I think it’s Lee so far). There are better places for that and just like the MVP, I don’t have a particular problem if some people have different ideas of what makes a Cy Young pitcher that are slightly different from the bottom line of what makes the best pitcher in the long run.

So go ahead, writers, vote for the most dominant, the most consistent, the hardest working, the most in control, the most efficient, the most impressive, the rarest accomplishments, the best fit for his team, the best year, or even a good story. But there really should be a raging debate going on and a lot of hype over starts from two great pitchers at the top of their game putting on a show down the stretch - if only something as arbitrary as wins didn’t rule the day.

You may now return to your regularly scheduled playoff drive.