Last year, the Phillies were the Brewers, clinching a playoff spot on the last day of the season and rolling into the playoffs to face the hottest team in baseball.  This year, it’s the Phillies who are the hottest team in the National League with a 17-8 September record and winners of 13 of their last 16.  The Brewers, like the ‘07 Phillies were able to capitalize on the Mets who stumbled their way out of the playoffs for the second year in a row. 

Last year, it became clear early that the Phillies were happy to be there and the Rockies meant business and now many are expecting the same as the Brewers send out a patchworked rotation but have a piece of the puzzle last year’s Phillies didn’t have — shutdown stopper CC Sabathia.  Sabathia’s final day performance and willingness to risk it all by continually pitching on short rest allowed the Brewers to regain their Wild Card status on the last day after a horrendous slump saw then-manager Ned Yost canned with two weeks to go in the season. 

For the Phillies, it has been a revolving door of players who have stepped up and disappeared with the only constant being Brad Lidge whose 41-for-41 save conversions were a huge difference-maker for the ‘08 Phils.  Early in the season, Chase Utley and Pat Burrell were hot but both went cold down the stretch only to have Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins pick up the slack.  Howard was huge in September with 11 home runs and 32 RBI and became a popular alternative to Albert Pujols in National League MVP talks.

Head to head, the Phillies have owned the Brewers including a key September four-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park followed by Yost’s firing and a split of a two-game series at Miller Park.  The Phillies avoided Sabathia who was not on the team when the clubs met in Milwaukee in April and Sabathia pitched the game before their four-game set in September. 

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

GAME ONE (Wednesday, October 1, 3:05 PM)
MILWAUKEE — Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 1.88 ERA) at PHILADELPHIA — Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA)

Game One is arguably the series.  The Brewers announced on Tuesday that Ben Sheets was not on the active roster for the National League Division Series and had to use Sabathia on Sunday to clinch the Wild Card so on even on short rest, he is not available until Game Two.  Instead, interim manager Dale Sveum is gambling on Gallardo who made one start since missing over four months after injuring his knee at the beginning of May.  The 22-year-old Gallardo has been impressive in his first two seasons and pitched well against the Pirates on September 25 in four innings of work.  For the Phillies, they have hardluck ace Hamels on the hill.  The Phillies are 19-14 when Hamels takes the ball and the team has scored three runs or less in 13 of Hamels’ 33 starts. 

GAME TWO (Thursday, October 2, 6:05 PM)
MILWAUKEE — CC Sabathia (11-2, 1.65 ERA) at PHILADELPHIA — Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55 ERA)

Why is Game One so important for the Phillies?  One loss means the Phillies have to find a way to beat Sabathia who is scheduled to pitch Game Two and Five.  The only positive for the Phillies facing Sabathia is his mediocre postseason record and that his first start will be his fourth in a row on short rest.  Sabathia is 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA in four postseason starts and is making his first start at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.  For the Phillies, Myers is a wild card.  Myers was so bad in the first half of the season that the club sent him down to the Minor League for retooling.  After a mediocre first outing, Myers went 7-2 with a 1.56 ERA in 10 starts — including a complete game two-hitter against Milwaukee — but looked lost in his last two starts of the year.

GAME THREE (Saturday, October 4, 6:35 PM)
PHILADELPHIA — Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71 ERA) at MILWAUKEE — Jeff Suppan (10-10, 4.96 ERA)

Both Moyer and Suppan have a wealth of postseason experience under their belt.  In five postseason starts, Moyer is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA and turned in a strong six-inning one-run performance in last year’s NLDS against the Rockies but the Phillies managed only one run of support in his no decision.  Suppan is 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in nine postseason starts and picked up a World Series ring in 2006 as a member of the Cardinals.  The 45-year-old Moyer has won six straight decisions and is 9-1 with a 3.22 ERA in his last 15 starts.  The 33-year-old Suppan has not won since August 30 and went 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in five September starts.  Moyer and Suppan met back on April 24 and the veterans turned in strong performances but the Phillies got to the Brewers’ shaky bullpen and ruined Suppan’s seven-inning one-run performance.

*GAME FOUR (Sunday, October 5, TBD)
PHILADELPHIA — Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA) at MILWAUKEE — Dave Bush (9-10, 4.18 ERA)

*GAME FIVE (Tuesday, October 7, TBD)
MILWAUKEE — CC Sabathia (11-2, 1.65 ERA) at PHILADELPHIA — Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55 ERA)

*If Necessary (Starters Subject to Change)

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PHILLIES THREE KEYS TO WINNING

1. Win Game One
   While this is almost a no brainer in any series, this Game One has added importance because of the Sabathia factor.  Notoriously, the Phillies have found a way to lose for Hamels and if Gallardo’s health was not a concern, this game might be closer to a pick’em.
2. Better Production From Big Four
   Last year, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell were a combined 9-for-45 (.200) in last year’s NLDS and only Rollins had more than one RBI.  Scary news came out of Tuesday’s practice that Burrell left batting practice with a stiff back.  Even though Burrell has struggled, the club is better with Burrell in the lineup than without him. 
3. Make The Bullpens A Factor
   The Phillies had the best bullpen in the National League.  The ‘pen was a combined 33-23 with a 3.19 ERA.  And then there’s Lidge who is 41-for-41 in save opportunities and a 1.10 ERA in save situations.

BREWERS THREE KEYS TO WINNING

1. Avoid Postseason Jitters
   While Sabathia and Suppan have a decent amount of postseason experience, only Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron have playoff time of the team’s starters.  The bulk of the team’s key players are getting their first playoff experience and, as the Phillies can attest, the postseason is a whole new ballgame.
2. Make Sabathia A Factor
   The Brewers are 14-3 (.823) when Sabathia starts and 76-69 (.524) when he does not.  The big advantage that the Brewers have is with Sabathia pitching Games Two and Five, the Phillies have to either beat Sabathia or win on the road twice to beat Milwaukee.  However, the Phillies owned the best road record in the National League and have favorable road pitching match-ups.
3. Keep The Game Close
   The Brewers are 28-17 in one-run games but 25-22 in blowouts (games decided by five-plus runs).  The Phillies are 27-23 in one-run games and 21-14 in blowouts.  Milwaukee also has a winning record in extra innings and the Phillies do not so if the games stay close, the Brewers historically have the advantage.