Just a few random thoughts before I get today’s notes and wrap:
• If, and when, Fox Sports has the guts to move Tim McCarver to the back shelf, Buck Martinez is the man who should be baseball’s lead analyst. Back in the day, when McCarver was more interested in baseball, and less interested in puns, you could learn a lot from Tim. Last night, I learned plenty from Buck. You don’t get to hear his brilliant analysis as much on his morning show on MLB on XM, but I can tell this guy was great last night. Buck and Chip Carey are clearly the “A Team.”
• There isn’t a better in-studio analyst than Dennis Eckersley. I watch his semi-regular work on NESN, the Red Sox cable channel, and he is outstanding because he is himself. Working with Ernie Johnson and Cal Ripken, Jr., Eck shows the same flair and guts behind the mike as he did on the mound during his Hall of Fame career.
• Curtis Granderson has a great future in television.
• After seeing Manny’s homer, I’m convinced he would be a winner on the PGA tour.
• How much helium does Tony Gwynn inhale during a broadcast?
• Sports Illustrated baseball senior writer Tom Verducci is no Ken Rosenthal, but he is very good and deserves more TV time.
• Craig Sager’s horrible dressing style makes me think of the late Lindsey Nelson.
• A big BOO to MLB.com for blacking out on-line live video of the games to subscribers.
• After 12 hours of baseball coverage yesterday, I can tell you that Frank Calliendo is one very funny guy, but I’m going to get sick of him before the first show comes on.
• I was perfect yesterday in my picks – every team that I picked to move on, lost.

FIRSTS
• This is the first time in 102 years that both Chicago teams will be in the postseason.
• After 771 major league games, Jason Bay played in his first postseason game last night and homered
• The Phillies won their first postseason game since the 1993 World Series against Toronto.
• Brad Lidge picked up his first postseason save since Oct. 16, 2005, with Houston. The next day, he gave up a game-winning three-run homer to the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the N.L. Championship Series.
• The Brewers are making their first postseason appearance since 1982, when they won the AL pennant.
• The Dodgers won the first game of the postseason on the road for just the fourth time in their history. Each of the previous three times, the Dodgers reached the World Series (including 1963, when the first game of the postseason was the World Series).
• The White Sox beat three different teams on three consecutive days to make the postseason. That’s a first.

LASTS
• Hopefully, this is the last time that MLB employs a coin toss to determine home field in a playoff. The Twins and White Sox finished 88-74. Instead of using head-to-head records to determine the playoff host, the Twins won the season series 10-8, the league flipped a coin on Sept. 12. The Twins lost the flip and lost the game 1-0.
• The last Philly championship was in 1983 when the NBA’s 76ers won it all. The last Phillies championship was 1980.
• Derek Lowe went 4-0 with a 0.50 earned run average in his last six starts.
• The Phillies ended a streak of four consecutive postseason losses; their last win was Game 5 of the 1993 World Series against the Blue Jays.
• Milwaukee’s last postseason victory was against St. Louis on Oct. 17, 1982, in Game 5 of the World Series.
• Last laughs for Joe Torre, his streak of consecutive seasons making the postseason continued while his former employer’s did not.

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• McCain is reminding everyone the Cubs/Dodgers playoff game is on TV tonight and to put country first by watching our national pastime

THE BALLPARKS
• Boston’s Fenway Park opened April 20, 1912.
• Chicago’s Wrigley Field opened on April 20, 1916
• Los Angeles’ Dodger Stadium opened on April 10, 1962.
• Anaheim’s Angel Stadium of Anaheim opened on April 19, 1966.
• Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field opened on April 18, 1991.
• St. Petersburg’s Tropicana Field hosted their first Rays game on March 31, 1998.
• Milwaukee’s Miller Park opened on March 30, 2001.
• Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park opened April 12, 2004.

GOOD DAY, EH? POSTSEASON CANADIANS
1. Jason Bay of Trail, B.C.
2. Ryan Dempster of Gibsons, B.C.,
3. Rich Harden of Victoria, B.C.
4. Russell Martin of Chelsea, Que.
5. Matt Stairs of St. John, New Brunswick
6. Eric Gagne of Mascouche, Que.

PHILS START STRONG
Cole Hamels was brilliant, Brad Lidge scarily adequate, and the Phillies topped the Brewers, 3-1 in Game 1 in Philly. Hamels retired the first 14 hitters and his final eight, giving up two singles, a walk and totally overwhelmed the Brewers.

Making his second start since returning from surgery for a torn knee ligament, Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo actually pitched well allowing three unearned runs and three hits in four innings, walking five. Gallardo became the second pitcher in major league history to start a postseason game without recording a win that year. He pitched in three games before he injured his right knee on May 1 and had a 1.88 ERA to go with four no-decisions.

Carlos Ruiz started the Philly 3rd with a single. Hamels then bunted hard to third baseman Bill Hall, who bobbled the ball, costing him a chance to get Ruiz at second. Second baseman Rickie Weeks dropped Hall’s throw to first for an error. In reality it should have been two errors. Gallardo then retired Jimmy Rollins on a shallow fly and struck out Jayson Werth. But Chase Utley hit a liner through the wind to center that Mike Cameron misplayed and the ball bounced from his glove. Both runners scored on what was inexplicably called a double for a 2-0 lead. Gallardo intentionally walked Ryan Howard and then walked Pat Burrell to load the bases. Gallardo walked Shane Victorino to force in another run, before retiring Pedro Feliz on a fly to center.

That basically was the ballgame until the 9th when the Brewers scored their run and got the tying run to the plate. Prince Fielder fanned  and after a walk and wild pitch put the tying runs in scoring position Corey Hart struck out swinging to end it.

• The Phillies are now 6-1 against the Brewers this season, including 5-0 at Citizens Bank Park.
• Cole Hamels is now 1-1 in career postseason starts; he took the loss in his only other playoff start, Game 1 of the 2007 NLDS against the Rockies.
• Hamels is 3-1 in six career starts against the Brewers.

HERO: Cole Hamels
GOAT: Mike Cameron

DODGERS DRIVE CUBS LONEY
When anybody asked me if there was one team that I thought could surprise this postseason, I always answered the Dodgers. Throw out all the seasonal stats on this club because it all comes down to Pre- and Post-Manny. As much as it pains Red Sox Nation to read it, Jason Bay has proven to be a great complimentary piece to the great Red Sox team, but Manny has been everything to the Dodgers. He shows consistently how he is one of the greatest right-handed hitters of this generation (A-Rod and Albert, too) and he shows what an effect he has on a team and on a game.

Yesterday, James Loney delivered the big hit, a go-ahead grand slam off a Ryan Dempster, who couldn’t find the plate, and Manny sealed the deal with a simply remarkable homer. Russell Martin also went deep as the Dodgers beat the Chicago Cubs,  7-2.

The Cubs took a 2-0 lead on Mark DeRosa’s homer in the 2nd inning off Derek Lowe, but the Dodgers came back against Dempster who walked the bases loaded in the 5th leading up to the Loney slam. Dempster, 14-3 at Wrigley during the regular season, threw 109 pitches in just 4 2/3 innings, giving up four runs and four hits while matching a career high seven walks.

• Alfonso Soriano, who went 0 for 5 and is 11 for his last 71 in the postseason.
• Ramirez’s homer was his 25th in the postseason, extending his own record. “I’m just being Manny,” Manny said.
• Only 18 of 56 teams who lost the division series opener came back to win the series, including only four of 28 in the NL, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
• Los Angeles had been 1-12 in the playoffs since beating Oakland in the 1988 Series.
• The Cubs have lost seven straight playoff games.

HERO: James Loney
GOAT: Ryan Dempster

RED SOX RULE
It could be that best thing that happened to the Red Sox was a cranky oblique muscle. While everybody may appropriately be talking about Jason Bay’s two-run homer against John Lackey that drove the Red Sox to a 4-1 victory over the Angels in Game 1 of their division series, the story of the game was Jon Lester’s masterful performance. Starting in place of Josh Beckett, who tweaked his oblique, Lester pitched like the ace he has been all season in shutting down the potent Angels offense. Lester overcame a couple of rocky early innings and did not allow an earned run in seven innings.

Jason Bay delivered the key hit when he put a high Lackey fastball into the stands for a two-run homer. To that point, the Red Sox were 0 for 11 with men on base. Lackey had struck out Bay on curveballs in his first two at-bats.

Jacoby Ellsbury had a terrific game with three hits, two stolen bases, one run scored, one run batted in and a tremendous diving catch leading off the 8th off Justin Masterson. That catch proved even more important when Vladimir Guerrero followed with a single. The score was still 2-1 at the time and when Torii Hunter dropped a pop single behind first base, it looked as if the Angels were in position to tie or take the lead. But first sacker Kevin Youkilis slid to the ground grabbed the Hunter pop-up on the first bounce and Guerrero, who ran through his third base coach’s stop sign, was easily thrown out at third.

• The Red Sox now have 10 straight playoff victories against the Angels, which include a three-game sweep in last season’s division series.
• Ellsbury is hitting .476 (10 for 21) in his last five playoff games.

HERO: Jon Lester
GOAT: Vlad Guerrero

PROBABLE PITCHERS
CHI AT TAMPA BAY, 2:30 PM
White Sox (Javier Vazquez) at Rays (Jamie Shields), 2:30
Javier Vasquez, 12-16, 4.67, 200 Ks versus James Shields (R), 14-8, 3.56, 160 Ks
Shields was 9-2 at home this season and 6-1 pitching during the day.

Brewers (C.C. Sabathia) at Phillies (Brett Myers), 6:00
Myers W-L: 10-13 ERA: 4.55 K: 163 Sabathia W-L: 17-10 ERA: 2.70 K: 251
CC Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA after he was acquired by Milwaukee July 7 from Cleveland.
Sabathia is just 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA in four postseason starts.

Dodgers (Chad Billingsley) at Cubs (Carlos Zambrano), 9:30
Billingsley W-L: 16-10 ERA: 3.14 K: 201 versus Zambrano W-L: 14-6 ERA: 3.91 K: 130
Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Bill Chuck is available for radio appearances and publication and web writing by contacting Bill@billy-ball.com.

…Atlanta Braves Third Baseman Chipper Jones will not need offseason shoulder surgery. An MRI on Tuesday revealed just what the Braves training staff thought it was, acute shoulder tendinitis. The NL Batting Champ will rehab the shoulder with therapy and a weight program this winter and will be ready to go by spring training.

…New York Mets ace Johan Santana has had arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. He tore it before his final start of the season, but still able to go and throw a shutout on short rest against the Florida Marlins. The team expects that he’ll be ready to go by Spring Training.

…New York Mets reliever Ambiorix Burgos is wanted by the police in the Dominican Republic. He was involved with a hit run with his SUV killing two women and the police are still looking for Burgos.

…The long time radio voice of the Pittsburgh Pirates is hanging up the headphones. Lanny Frattare is retiring after 33 seasons in the broadcast booth, the longest tenure in the Pirates 122  year history.

“The decision to retire from the Pirates broadcast booth was something I have been thinking about and have discussed for some time,” Frattare said. “It was a difficult and an emotional decision but, in the end, I decided it was time.”

…Congratulations to Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez who belted his 25th post season home run in the Dodgers win over the Cubs in Chicago. He now leads the pack in post season home runs, the closest to him is former Yankee Bernie Williams who has 22 post season jacks to his resume.

…According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times the Mariners have received permission to talk with Toronto Blue Jays Assistant General Manager Tony LaCava regarding the open GM position in the Emerald City. Also recently Sandy Alderson of the San Diego Padres denied the Mariners request to talk to GM Kevin Towers and Assistant GM Paul Depodesta about the GM opening.

…Major League Baseballs attendance numbers were down this season 1.1% breaking a string of four straight record setting seasons. Baseball finished with 78.6 million total fans down from 79.5 million in 2007.

For the ‘98 season, Major League Baseball changed their odd Division Series rules pertaining to home field advantage.  First, the team with the best record in the league received home field advantage instead of a rotation system previously implemented when the Wild Card was introduced in ‘95.  More importantly, the team with home field advantage actually started the series at home and played games one, two and five at home instead of games three, four and five.  Since then, there has been 40 Division Series from ‘98-’07 and with yesterday’s postseason tripleheader, it’s a good time to look at what game one has meant to the outcome of the series and what home field advantage really means.

How important is game one?  Does it matter if the home team or away team gets off to a quick start in the short series?

Since ‘98, the away team has won game one of the series 21 of 40 times or 52.5% of the time.  In the 21 series where the away team has won the first game, they have gone on to win 14 of those series or 66.7%.  In the 19 series where the home team has won the first game, they have gone on to win 12 of those series or 63.2%.  Statistically, one or two of the teams that lose game one this year should bounce back to win the series. 

As far as by season, last year was the first time that all four teams who won the first game of the series advanced to the Championship Series.  In five seasons (’98, ‘02, ‘04, ‘05, ‘06), three of the four teams who won the first game advanced.  In three seasons (’99, ‘00, ‘01), half of the teams who won the first game advanced.  Once (’03) three first game losers came back to win the series but never have all four teams that won game one not advanced.

How important is home field advantage?

It might be important to call it home field “advantage” since the road team has won 21 of 40 Division Series and have fared slightly better when winning game one than the home team.  Also, if you eliminate the ten series involving the Yankees, the team that won game one has won the Division Series 23 out of 30 times or 76.7%. 

Yesterday, both teams that earned home field advantage in their leagues — the Cubs in the National and the Angels in the American — lost game one.  Prior to yesterday, both teams with home field advantage lost game one only twice in the last ten seasons.  In all, eight of the 20 teams with home field advantage have lost game one but four of those have bounced back to win their series.

What about the Wild Cards? 

The Wild Card teams split their first games on Wednesday with the Red Sox winning and the Brewers losing.  This is pretty close to the trend as nine of 20 Wild Cards have won game one.  However, the trend drastically favors the Red Sox because of the nine teams that have won game one, seven of those teams have gone on to win the series with only the ‘98 Red Sox and ‘01 Athletics winning game one as the Wild Card but losing the series.  The Wild Card teams that lost game one still won six out of 11 series and the Wild Card, in general, has favored well with 13 of the 20 Wild Card teams advancing to the League Championship Series.

So, what’s it all mean?

If you look at these numbers and you are the Cubs or Angels, you have to be a little concerned, especially if you are the Angels who lost to the “Wild Card” Red Sox.  If you are the Phillies, yesterday’s win is vital when you look at the success of Wild Cards who win the first game.  And there’s still the Rays and White Sox who play their first game today. 

Spin it how you want, it’s better to win the first game than lose it but it doesn’t mean the series is over.  As for home field “advantage”, it has little meaning in the short Division Series format.  Ask the Cubs or Angels should they fail to recover from devastating opening night losses.

I returned this week from one of the best experiences of my life. A few months ago I was invited to attend the Kansas City Royals first ever scout school in Surprise, Arizona. I really wasn’t sure what to expect. I certainly understand the grading scale scouts use, and I realize the need to find the “right” players to draft. I always felt that major league scouting departments were never given enough credit, and after spending a week at the Royals spring training complex, that feeling didn’t change. Scouting is a lot of work. It involves a lot of traveling, eating on the run, and plenty of improvising. I could try to go into more detail about the life of a scout, but I wouldn’t do these people justice. So instead, I’m going to recap the week that was in the hope of giving everyone an idea of just what goes on behind the scenes in professional baseball. Because if you think you know as much as there is to know about the sport, you’re probably wrong.

Since I want to be as thorough as possible, I’m going to break down my report into several parts. We begin today with Part I.

Part I – The Beginning

I arrived in Phoenix on Sunday, September 21st at about 3:00 PM local time and hopped on the shuttle to take me to our hotel adjacent to the team’s complex. I had been to spring training in Arizona two years ago so I was pretty familiar with the area. When I was there in March 2006, it was warm. But it was downright hot this September. The temperature on Sunday was a scorching 100 degrees. Little did I know that would be near the low for the week!

After checking in to the Holiday Inn Express, I met my roommate (someone I now call a friend, but more on that later), exchanged pleasantries, and met the rest of the group for dinner at 5:00. The class instructors included Steve Williams (the Royals Assistant Scouting Director), Junior Vizcaino (National Supervisor), Sean Gibbs (Area Scout), and Ben Jones (Inner Cities Scout). The class was made up of nine guys from primarily the east coast. Most of the group had either played major league ball, professional baseball, college baseball, or coached. I was certainly in the minority here. The last time I put on a baseball uniform was back in high school.

Dinner was casual and relaxing. We talked a little about what we’d be doing during the week, but mostly it was about getting to know each other a little. The real work would begin on Monday.

Monday morning came quick enough, and we all piled into the van at 7:30 AM for our 5 minute trip over to Surprise Stadium complex. The Royals share their spring training and instructional league home with the Texas Rangers. The complex has about 7 or 8 practice fields plus the main stadium where all exhibition games are played. There are various other areas too where drills can be performed and where players can work on special skills. And of course, there are batting cages that echo with the sound of baseballs flying off wood throughout the course of the day.

We arrived at the complex, parked in the Royals team parking lot, and made our way through the major league club house and team offices. The majority of our classroom work would be conducted in a conference center located within the confines of the stadium out behind the large scoreboard in left center field.

The moment had arrived for class to begin. The guys were quiet and perhaps a little nervous. That might be the only time anyone felt that way during the week. But it was all a little overwhelming. For those in the game most of their life, they had to combine a classroom element with the game…something that they might not have been used to. For those, like me, who are in business and used to staff and board meetings, it was a little strange trying to visualize baseball in an academic setting. We were given notepads, clipboards, a stop watch, scout cards, and a binder, or playbook if you will, of all the topics we would be covering that week. We would learn what makes up a Royals type player, how to analyze the body of a ball player, what to look for in hitters and pitchers, how the grading scale works, the importance of makeup and signability, and how to write a scouting report…among plenty of other things!

The first hour was spent introducing ourselves, and to be honest, I was really impressed with the backgrounds of the people in the room. It started to hit me that I was surrounded by baseball…from players, coaches, and scouts to the stadium, fields, and batting cages. Any nervousness I felt early on turned to excitement, and it would only get better from there!

Up Next…Part II – Grading Players

Brewers - Phillies Notes and Quotes…

Phillies 3, Brewers 1

Q. Cole, given the stakes, was that the best pitching performance of your young career?

COLE HAMELS: Yes and no. Just where we were I knew the importance of the game, and it’s something where because of last year, I learned what it really takes in trying to be — kind of mellow out, not have that sort of excitement where you can’t really control everything. And that was something where just going out there and relaxing and just being able to pitch and throw strikes. I think with the type of team that Milwaukee brings, they’re very aggressive but also very good. And so I just had to really establish the first pitch strike just so I can get ahead of them and slow them down. And that’s what I was able to do and have success at it.

Q. Charlie, can you talk about the offense today? Because you went quite a few innings without so much as a hit.

CHARLIE MANUEL: Early for two innings we hit about three or four balls hard right at people. Utley’s hit, of course, was big. And the fact that we took advantage of a break when Cole bunted to Braun and we got a break when they didn’t execute. And, like you said, we didn’t really what we call hit the ball. I give credit to their pitchers. Plus, like we might have been trying a little bit too hard but at the same time their pitchers did a good job, and I look at it this way: Like we hit just good enough to win the game. So tomorrow we might get after big C.C. (Laughter).

PROBABLE PITCHERS TIME (CT)
Thursday, October 2 at Philadelphia LHP CC Sabathia (11-2, 1.65) vs. RHP Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55) 6:07

Saturday, October 4 vs. Philadelphia TBA vs. LHP Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71) 5:37

Dodgers - Cubs Notes and Quotes…

Dodgers 7, Cubs 2

Q. Regarding Loney, there was an at-bat here in this ballpark in May that I think you had referred to a few times about his approach, that he hit one out of the park but foul, and then struck out on the next pitch, which he shouldn’t have struck out. What happened tonight, is there sort of an indication of progress and the way that he’s approaching at-bats now?

JOE TORRE: Well, again, in that particular game, he came up to pinch-hit, so that’s something that’s really not common for him to do. But I certainly remember that at-bat. The pitcher went away from him, and he was fooled. Today, you know, he had two what looked like very feeble swings the first two pitches, and then he managed to foul tip a ball. But the thing he did do a little bit differently was the fact that he stayed in the middle of the field, and I think that was huge that he was able to do that at that particular time. Because the game doesn’t slow down for you, especially when you have the bases loaded and there are two out and you have two strikes on you. But he’s so unpredictable. We’ve seen that time and time again this year. This is only my first year with him, but I’ve seen him have at-bats like that before where he just seems to be overmatched at times, but yet come up with a base hit. But this obviously was huge for us.

Q. How would you evaluate Derek tonight?

JOE TORRE: Derek was great. I mean, again, he’s got that preparation look in his eye, very focused early on. I mean, he gave up a home run to DeRosa. The big thing about it, he settled right down and really did a great job for us. He just battles you. I watched it for a number of years when he was with the Red Sox. But tonight was huge. When you have a young club and you come into a foreign ballpark, just to get off to a start like this and give us an opportunity to win, just keeping the score 2-0 is as important a start as he’s had for us.

Q. Could you or Larry see anything with Dempster as for the cause of the wildness?

LOU PINIELLA: No, I asked Larry a few times. He said that he was overthrowing and he couldn’t get a good rhythm out there. We talked about the importance of throwing strikes before the ballgame today. I thought that would be a big key. And their guys threw strikes and ours didn’t. It hurts.

UPCOMING PITCHING PROBABLES  (All times Pacific) –
Thursday, Oct. 2            6:37 p.m.         at CHI            RHP Chad Billingsley (0-0, 0.00) vs. RHP Carlos Zambrano (0-0, 0.00)   

Saturday, Oct. 4             7:07 p.m.         vs. CHI           RHP Rich Harden (0-0, 0.00) vs. RHP Hiroki Kuroda (0-0, 0.00)           

Red Sox - Angels Notes and Quotes…

Red Sox 4, Angels 1

Q. Jason, two questions. First one, what was the difference aside from the result in your first two at-bats and your third at-bat and secondly, your view on Ellsbury’s catch in center field. You had a good angle on it.

JASON BAY: The first two at-bats I never faced Lackey and he has that good breaking ball and he got out ahead of me. Out of his hand it was looking pretty good and finally at the third at-bat he threw me one that wasn’t getting over and I felt like I got into a better rhythm, I was behind the count in the first two at-bats and that one I was, too, but I felt like, okay, I’m seeing the ball the first couple of at-bats I didn’t really see it and he left a fastball up and I hit it and after that you gain a little confidence and second part of your question, the Ellsbury catch, I mean, an unbelievable day for him at the plate and in the field but that’s what he does. Speed is the biggest part of his game and at that point in the game we were up by a run with the meat of the order coming in and he comes in and closes down that ball it and it could have been a different story though that was awesome.

Q. Jon, Terry was talking about the 6th inning and said you came out with a vengeance. What was your mind-set when you ended up striking out the side?

JON LESTER: Tried to have a shutdown inning. We did a good job that inning scoring a couple of runs. Lackey is a tough pitcher and unfortunately made a mistake to Jason, he hit it out, and tried to establish strike one like I tried to do from the get-go and tried to have a quick inning and get the offense back in the dugout.

Q. What was working for you best this evening to shutdown the Angels?

JON LESTER: A little bit of everything. Seems like some innings I had a good stuff and other innings I had a better curveball, just really had to try to get early on, command of everything and it seemed like once the game started flowing I got better command.

Q. Mike, what was Lester doing out there? Why was he so effective?

MANAGER SCIOSCIA: He’s having a terrific year. He’S got a great arm and certainly his velocity was up a bit from where we seen him early in the year and he was able to get the fastball on both sides of the plate. I thought he threw some breaking balls behind in counts which got him back into counts and a curve that he was throwing inside to some of our righties, and he had great stuff and he pitched a great ballgame.

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Fri, Oct. 3 Angel Stadium 6:37 p.m. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90), RHP Ervin Santana (16-7, 3.49)

Sun., Oct. 5 Fenway Park TBA RHP Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03), LHP Joe Saunders (17-7, 3.41)

This series showdown is between the new boys of the post season against one of the oldest teams in the American League.  When predictions were made in March, both teams were expected to finish well back of the division winners making this one of the more unlikely matchups in recent memory.  But Tampa, led by Joe Maddon, shattered expectations by winning a franchise record 97 games in capturing the AL East ahead of the traditional bullies.  Meanwhile, Ozzie Guillen’s White Sox were considered bridesmaids as Detroit and Cleveland were to battle for supremacy.  It took 163 games, but when the dust settled, it was the Sox at the top of the heap for their first visit to the post season since they won it all in 2005.

Both squads feature solid, yet unspectacular, offense.  Tampa (.340 OPB) gets on base more than the Sox (.332 OBP), but Chicago out muscles the Rays (.448 SLG vs. .422 SLG).

The Rays hit .246/.346/.398 with runners in scoring position.  Their batting average in this situation was by far the lowest in the AL - the next lowest was Seattle at .257.  For the apparent struggles in scoring opportunities, the Rays scored 774 runs on the year.  But they had a bunch of runners on base.  They ranked second in the AL in total base on balls and fourth in team OBP (.340) and eighth in slugging percentage (.422).

Even though Tampa slugged 180 home runs, they aren’t going to out homer the bombers from the South Side who crushed a league-leading 235 out of the park.  However, the Sox can have a difficult time getting runners on base.  Of their home runs, 133 were solo shots (although Jim Thome can tell you sometimes, a solo home run is all it takes).  Plus, it’s worth noting that while they hit .277/.350/.463 with runners in scoring position, no team had fewer plate appearances in this situation than the White Sox.

The Sox averaged 4.9 runs per game over their first 95 games of the season.  But shortly after the break, third baseman Joe Crede’s back issues resurfaced and then in September, Carlos Quentin broke his wrist.  Although Crede wasn’t setting the world on fire (.248/.314/.360) he provided some power for the lower third of the lineup.  It’s interesting to see that the Sox actually scored more runs with Crede out of the lineup (5.1 runs per game)  But Quentin (.288/.394/.571) was an MVP candidate, so his absence really hurt.  In September, the Sox were down to 4.4 runs per game.

Chicago’s rotation owns a 4.09 ERA, good for the fourth best mark in the AL.  They’re fronted by a couple of young guns including tie-breaker hero John Danks (3.32 ERA, 138 ERA+) and Gavin Floyd (3.84 ERA, 119 ERA+).  They’re joined in the rotation by Mark Buehrle (3.79 ERA, 121 ERA+) who quietly put together another productive season.  Because of the importance of the final three games of the regular season (including game #163) those were the White Sox starters meaning Guillen didn’t have the luxury of setting his rotation up for the post-season.  As a result, Javier Vazquez (4.67 ERA, 98 ERA+) gets the ball in Game One.

Tampa starters posted a 3.95 ERA, which made them the second best rotation in the league behind only Toronto.  The Rays front three of James Shields (3.56 ERA, 122 ERA+), Scott Kazmir (3.49 ERA, 125 ERA+) and Matt Garza (3.70 ERA, 118 ERA+) gives Tampa an advantage in the short series format of the ALDS.  Shields has been outstanding down the stretch, posting a 2.65 ERA over his final six starts with an average Game Score of 58.  But Kazmir has had difficulty managing his pitch count and has averaged just five innings per start since the end of July.  And Garza struggled over the season’s final month with a 4.73 ERA in five starts.

That puts a ton of pressure on the bullpen, but that’s another area where Tampa has exceeded expectations.  Dan Wheeler (3.12 ERA in 66.1 IP), JP Howell (2.22 ERA in 89.1 IP) and Grant Balfour (1.54 ERA in 58.1 IP) form an effective relief corp that can be trusted with a lead.  The big question mark is on closer Troy Percival (4.53 ERA in 45.2 IP) who struggled in his first two outings coming off the DL with a knee injury, but then seemed to find some rhythm down the stretch.  But nine walks in his last six innings of work has seen the sale of Rolaids skyrocket along the Gulf Coast.  It will be interesting to see if Maddon keeps one of his quality relievers in the pen behind Percival, just in case.

With 57 wins at the Trop, the Rays own the best home record in the majors.  And with the Sox starting Vazquez in the first game in Tampa, it’s an uphill battle for Chicago.  Since short series like this usually comes down to pitching, it gives the Rays an advantage.  And with a stronger overall bullpen, Tampa has the arms to silence the power of the White Sox bats.

Head to head, the Rays won six of ten, but were outscored by Chicago, 37-35.

Prediction:  Tampa in three.