I’m sitting out the playoffs this year. The only team that interests me is the one that calls St. Petersburg home; maybe if the Rays reach the World Series, I’ll watch an inning or two in their honor.

Anyway, I’ve been thinking — always a dangerous thing — about Mark Reynolds and his 204 strikeouts this year. On the one hand, I’m glad to see that Bob Melvin kept penciling Reynolds into the lineup despite the latter’s season-long case of acute contact deficiency; on the other, where was the love for Russell Branyan all those years ago?

Reynolds hit .239/.320/.458 in 2008. That’s a 97 OPS+ and 5.1 RC/G, if you’re keeping score at home. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they’re also not the sort that would seem to justify so many strikeouts. When Ryan Howard strikes out 200 times in a season, at least he’s out there knocking 45-50 homers.

Reynolds hit 28. One more and he would have had as many as Jorge Cantu.

Yes, that Jorge Cantu.

So Reynolds must be something special with the glove then. Actually, he led MLB third basemen in errors by a substantial margin — his 34 were 11 more than the second worst, Cincinnati’s Edwin Encarnacion — and had the third lowest range factor among National League regulars.

Branyan, meanwhile, has never managed to land a starting gig. He’s 32 now and still productive (.250/.342/.583 in 152 PA for Milwaukee in 2008), but he’s broken 300 plate appearances just twice in his career, peaking at 435 in 2002. Branyan was 26 that year and hit .228/.320/.458, which translates to a 102 OPS+ and 5.2 RC/G.

Of course, Branyan mostly played the outfield in 2002, having been moved off the hot corner because of his defense. Then again, his career numbers at third base (.946 FPct, 2.24 RF in 329 G) are no worse than those of Reynolds (.922, 2.10 in 254 G).

I guess what I’m trying to say is that although I’m happy that Reynolds has been given the opportunity to play every day despite his whifftastic tendencies, I’m also bummed that Branyan never got a similar chance. That cat could have been something. And it would have been fun to watch…

As many writers, including Tom Singer on mlb.com,  are wearying our fingers about today, all four LDS series are at 2-0, meaning that we’re facing four potential series-clinching games today and tomorrow. And four teams therefore face playoff sweeps: the Brewers, Angels, Cubs, and White Sox. Which of them face the best chance of climbing out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves and save the series, or at least extend the agony for another game or two?

Statistics tell us that, of 35 division series where teams have taken a 2-0 lead, only five teams have rallied to win, and only one (the 2001 Yankees) have done so after dropping the first two at home. So if we want to listen to history–and which stathead among us doesn’t?–Milwaukee and the White Sox have the best shot at coming back (though, clearly, we may instead see a four-team sweep for the first time in playoff history). But I’d argue that analysis of the matchups and performances thus far tell a different story.

Let’s start at the bottom, with the Chicago White Sox.

As we all predicted here on BDD, the Sox stood little chance against the Rays. Old and tired from their sprint to the finish, the Sox were facing this year’s best story: the young, exciting, resurgent Rays.

The one question in the series, which still remains (albeit writ much smaller), is whether the wily vets at Chicago could outlast the exuberant youth of the Rays. Would the Cinderella team swoon during their first dance? As we’ve seen so far, they look ready to head to the ball, and show no signs of premature pumpkinism. Even the Balfour-Cabrera confrontation in Game 2 came out in Tampa’s favor, with the veteran shortstop fanning after trying to show up Balfour, who’s having his first great season as a reliever.

Game Three puts John Danks, who stepped up in a big way during the one-game playoff against Minnesota (8 IP, 0 ER, 2H, 4K, 3BB), against Matt Garza, who faded down the regular-season stretch. If ever there’s a chance for Chicago to step back in to this series, it’s tomorrow night. But given the way the teams have looked, this isn’t as likely as it sounds; and even if it might, nobody looks for Chicago to take three straight against this amazing young squad.

The next least likely to succeed are the Chicago Cubs.

Sorry, Chi-town fans, since I picked these guys to go all the way, along with plenty of other writers, including Jayson Stark and (evidently) many ESPN writers. Here at BDD, we were split on the outcome, and if you read the comments, very few of us were solidly on one side or the other.

Two metaphysical baseball questions hang over this series: (1) Could the Cubs’ curse overcome even a team with the best record in the NL, against the team with the worst record entering the playoffs? (2) Did Torre’s postseason magic, so notably absent in recent years, depend on the magical Yankees teams he coached?

Those questions seem to have been answered. The Cubs have looked inept and overwhelmed, from the lackluster performance in Game 1, with erstwhile Cy Young candidate Ryan Dempster pitching more like a Dumpster, unable to get out of the fourth inning and passing out walks like Moonie leaflets at the airport.

Piniella might have mucked things up with his untimely pitching moves, but the Cubs didn’t help him out, stranding runners and striking out in crucial situations. Torre looked brilliant, with each pitching move working out well, and the Dodgers looking neither ruffled nor cocky as the game developed from tight contest to done deal.

Game 2 saw the curse-bestowing goat bellowing (or braying or baaing of whatever ungodly sound goats make) loudly from the Great Beyond. The Cubs kicked the ball around on defense, flailed at it on offense, and Carlos’ Zambrano’s one-inning, four-run meltdown was more than enough for the Dodgers, who seem to be peaking at just the right time. Torre switched pitchers mercilessly, no matter the score, and has a firm hand on the Los Angeles tiller.

Game Four will be Fukudome-less (0-7 in the series) and puts midseason acquisition Rich Harden against Hiroki Kuroda. This game may depend on which Kuroda shows up: the one who tossed a complete game shutout against the Cubbies on June 6, or the one who gave up 12 runs in 5 IP in the games just before and just after that one. It’s not too late for the Cubbies, but they’re sinking fast, and the answers to those aforementioned metaphysical questions seem to be: No and, emphatically, No.

Milwaukee Brewers are the next poor chickens on the chopping block, series-wise.

They’re tight up against the Cubbies, and possibly even the White Sox, as far as futility is concerned. But they’ve looked neither as tired as the White Sox, nor as inept as the Cubs. And there’s just enough youth on this team to overcome an 0-2 deficit, especially when you throw in the fact that the Phils haven’t won a playoff series since 1993, back when John Kruk was hauling that Michelin Man physique around the bases and not through Nutrisystem commercials.

The two games thus far have been close, at least on paper, and the Brew Crew have had their chances. Yovani Gallardo’s courageous, pseudo-Willis Reed comeback to pitch Game 1, with a 4IP, 0ER performance, was topped by Cole Hamels blanking the Brewers through eight, and further undone by the shaky defense behind Gallardo, which allowed the 3 unearned runs that made the difference in the game. Brad Lidge seemed to revert to his Astros form when he allowed a run in the ninth and allowed three batters to step to the plate as the tying run. But Prince struck out, J.J. Hardy walked, and Corey Hart struck out to end the game for Milwaukee.

Game 2 was the one where the CC machine fell apart. Starting on three days’ rest for the fourth consecutive time, Sabathia showed that he was no “Iron Man” McGinnity, giving up five runs in 3.2IP, his worst and shortest outing since donning a Brewers uni and dropping the periods from his first name. Brett Myers looked shaky early, allowing a first-inning run by walking Hardy with the bases packed, but he righted the ship and Milwaukee couldn’t take advantage. They tacked on another run, but couldn ‘t overcome Victorino’s grand slam, and meekly submitted to Lidge in the ninth.

The good news is that Milwaukee is heading home, where they were 49-32 this season. The further good news is that they face an aging pitcher who can sometimes give up a ton of runs. The bad news is that the pitcher’s name is Jamie Moyer, who’s having his best year since 2003, and has been 8-1, with a 3.39 ERA since the All-Star break.

And, in further bad news, their pitcher is Dave Bush, who’s 9-10 with a 4.10 ERA this season. Then again, if we can keep playing the good-news-bad-news routine, Bush is solid at home, a full two runs better than he is on the road.

And, in bad news, CC’s not available again until Game 5 (if they make it there), which would mark his fifth straight start with three days’ rest. Do they really want to see what might happen to him if they get that far? With all the innings on his arm (a whopping 253 IP this regular season), CC might spontaneously combust.

Finally, there’s the Los Angeles Angels (still have a hard time calling them that, let alone that tongue-tangling, geography-defying moniker, “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”).

Almost all of us BDD prognosticators picked the Angels over the battered BoSox, but Rob McQuown will have the last laugh if Scoscia can’t turn this thing around. And with all the question marks about Boston’s health, it’s still possible the duct tape might fall off of Drew, Lowell, Beckett, or even Ortiz, giving the team with the AL’s best record a chance to vanquish their eternal playoff rivals.

If I may pat myself on the back briefly, I pointed out in my preview that Jon Lester had pitched far better than John Lackey thus year, particularly of late, and the veteran Dice-K was likely to outduel the New Angel on the Hill, Ervin Santana, who’s finally come into his own after years of potential and struggle.

These came true in Games 1 and 2, both of which Boston won with dominant pitching and clutch hitting, particularly from Drew. Lackey only gave up two runs in six innings on a two-run bomb by mini-Manny Jason Bay, but Lester went one better, giving up only one unearned run in seven innings of dominating work. He fanned seven, walked one, and scattered six hits, and Masterson and Papelbon came on to finish off the Angels. After Lackey’s departure, the once sure-thing Scot Shields looked awful trying to keep the game close, giving up two runs on four hits and putting the 2-1 game well out of reach against Papelbon.

Another bullpen meltdown made the difference in Game Two. As I expected, Santana was a little shaky, giving Boston a 4-0 lead before his team even stepped to the plate. After two straight singles to Ortiz and Youkilis, J.D. Drew doubled to bring home Ortiz, and Bay smacked another long ball, giving the Sox an early four-run lead.

Dice-K, who has worked in and out of trouble all season long, also gave up two straight singles in the first, with a third single to Hunter scoring Teixiera. He continued to give runs back in the fourth and fifth, yielding to Hideki Okajima in the sixth.

But Boston still had a 5-3 lead at this point, until Justin Masterson came on for Okajima in the seventh with two runners on. Masterson walked two to force in one of those runners, then rallied to finish the side, but he’d later let in another run to tie the game in the eighth.

In the ninth, Drew came on against K-Rod, who was pitching in his second straight inning, and blasted a two-run shot over the wall in center, giving his team the lead. Brian Joseph makes a good point in his post today that Scoscia’s decision to remove Shields after one batter was a poor one, and the results of the game certainly bear him out.

Looking ahead, tomorrow night’s game features an un-Beckett-like Beckett against a strong young arm in Joe Saunders, and (if you still wanna believe my predictions) I’d give the edge to the Angels, even in hostile territory. Lackey’s scheduled for Game 4, if they get there, where he’ll likely face Lester again, and Game 5 will probably feature Dice-K and Santana again.

If they’re anything like the first two games in this series, these if-necessary games should be tremendously exciting, and could swing either way. Which is why I give the Angels the best chance to come back from an 0-2 deficit to win.

…The New York Mets and Manager Jerry Manuel finally come to terms on a two year deal with a club option for 2011. The deal had been mentioned a few days ago but Manuel hadn’t signed on the dotted line yet - now it’s official some say he was hopefully holding out for a three year deal and that’s basically what he got.

Here’s GM Omar Minaya.

“Jerry did a very good job taking over the club midseason, and we believe that he is the right person to manage our team and lead us to the postseason,” Mets general manager Omar Minaya said in a statement.”

And here’s Manuel.

“I am thrilled and appreciative for the opportunity that ownership and Omar have given me to continue to manage the Mets,” he said in a statement.

…Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Minnesota Twins are interested in Chicago White Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera this offseason. Christensen speculates that Carbrera could get a 3 year $30MM deal on the open market.

…The Florida Marlins have resigned 3B/Pinch Hitter Wes Helms to a two year deal worth about $1.9MM. If the Marlins hadn’t given him a new contract they would have had to had paid Helms $750,000 in a buy out.

…St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan will return in 2009. The team announced Friday that Duncan agreed to a one year deal with an option for 2010.

…On Friday the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians finally finished the deal for CC Sabathia. The Indians player to be named later now has a name: Micheal Brantley. Brantley will be in the big league camp to start the spring but will most likely end up starting the season with Triple-A Columbus.

It always puzzles me when managers decide to manage differently in the playoffs.  I get it in the fifth game of a Best-of-Five or the seventh game of a Best-of-Seven but beyond that, it always leaves me shaking my head. 

It happened again early Saturday morning in the Angels-Red Sox game when Angels manager Mike Scioscia went to his bullpen with two outs in the eighth inning.  Behind 5-4, reliever Scot Shields walked Jacoby Ellsbury with two outs and Scioscia went to Francisco Rodriguez to keep the Angels within one.  At that point, it was referred to as Scioscia “pulling out all the stops” but the question has to be asked why was Shields not given the opportunity to finish out the inning?  Shields faced three batters, threw 10 pitches and struck out one before walking Ellsbury and both Shields and K-Rod are both right-handers which means it wasn’t for the normal reasons a pitcher is taken out mid-inning.  Instead, it was to bring in Rodriguez to insure the game stayed within one run but it also meant K-Rod was expected to pitch the ninth, a role that Rodriguez had not been asked to play the entire ‘08 season.

Consider this:  The last time the Angels used Rodriguez over two innings was August 17, 2007 against the Red Sox where he got the win after blowing a save in 1-2/3 innings of work.  The last time the Angels used Rodriguez in a non-save situation over two innings was August 1, 2007 against the Mariners where he pitched two innings and gave up two hits and a run in their 8-7 loss.

The Angels never used Rodriguez before the ninth inning once during the entire ‘08 season and rarely used him in a non-save situation.  They did use K-Rod in seven non-save situations in ‘08 and he fared well with a 2.57 ERA and a 1-1 record but never before the ninth inning and never in two different innings.

There is a history of Rodriguez’s usage in a non-save situation across two innings since becoming the team’s full-time closer in ‘05.  There were a total of 10 games where Rodriguez entered the game in a non-save situation and was asked to pitch in more than one inning.  In those 10 games, Rodriguez posted a 1-5 record with a 4.07 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17-2/3 innings.  Wouldn’t numbers like these be a red flag, especially the record?

The Angels won 100 games this year but none of them by Scioscia running the bullpen the way he did on Friday.  Not many will criticize the move because initially K-Rod got the job done but then grooved one in the ninth to J.D. Drew who made him pay with a two-run jack to eventually give the Red Sox a 2-0 lead in the series.  However, it looked like a panic move to me at the time and, in the end, asking K-Rod to pitch in a situation he last pitched in — unsuccessfully — over a year ago delivered an unwanted outcome.

It’s not Scioscia’s fault the Angels lost on Friday.  The Angels didn’t score more than one run in any inning and left 11 runners on base including Howie Kendrick who went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts and left five runners on base.  But could more effective bullpen usage have pushed the game into extra innings and got the Angels a crack at someone other than Jonathan Papelbon with a chance to win? 

There’s no denying that Scioscia is a great manager.  He has 803 wins, a Manager of the Year award and a World Series ring to prove it. Still, does it make sense to try something different in the postseason, especially after the most successful regular season of your managerial career?  Sometimes “pulling out all the stops” isn’t the best path to victory especially when your team won 100 games without feeling the necessity to panic.