On August 14, the Dodgers completed a four-game sweep of the Phillies in Los Angeles that knocked Philadelphia out of the top spot in the National league East and catapulted Los Angeles into a tie with the Diamondbacks for the National League West title.  After being swept, the Phillies posted the best record in baseball winning 28 of their last 41 games including a four-game sweep of the Dodgers the next weekend in Philadelphia.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers coasted down the stretch and capitalized on being in the weakest division in the National League and a Diamondbacks team that couldn’t get out of their own way in September.

In the NLDS, the Dodgers again took advantage of a team that suddenly looked lost as they easily dispatched of the Chicago Cubs in three straight.  The Dodgers played well but it didn’t hurt that the Cubs managed to score only six runs and made six errors in three games.  In the other series, the Phillies beat the Brewers in four and benefited from a uncharacteristically ineffective CC Sabathia in Game Two and a powerful Brewers team that suddenly went powerless and managed just one home run in four games.

Now, with both teams well rested, the Phillies and Dodgers set up for an exciting NLCS match-up featuring some of the biggest hitters in the game, two young starters and a handful of players with storied and different postseason pasts.  The two teams have been intertwined in their own postseason past with the Phillies beating the Dodgers in the NLCS in 1983 and the Dodgers getting past the Phils in the NLCS in 1977 and 1978.

Head to head, there’s been no place like home for these two clubs.  They split the season series four to four with the Dodgers winning four in Los Angeles and the Phillies winning four in Philadelphia.  During the regular season, the Phillies and Dodgers posted identical home records at 48-33 but the Phillies were eight games better on the road which earned them one more home game than the Dodgers should the NLCS go the distance.

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

GAME ONE (Thursday, October 9, 8:22 PM)
LOS ANGELES - Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24 ERA) at PHILADELPHIA - Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA)

Derek Lowe continued to put up decent postseason numbers with a strong performance in Game One of the NLDS against the Cubs but it paled in comparison to Cole Hamels’ mastery of the Brewers in Game One of their NLDS.  Lowe is 4-1 in seven career starts against the Phillies and his only lost came in 1998.  He beat the Phillies in Los Angeles earlier this year and was the benefit of an eight-run outburst by his teammates.  Hamels posted nearly identical performances in two starts.  In both starts, Hamels went seven innings and allowed two runs on five hits.  The hard luck Hamels saw one of the two fall to the team’s loss column when the Dodgers got to Chad Durbin and JC Romero in the eighth and ninth and won it on an Andre Ethier walk-off single. 

EDGE: Phillies

GAME TWO (Friday, October 10, 4:35 PM)
LOS ANGELES - Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14 ERA) at PHILADELPHIA - Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55 ERA)

Lowe might be the Game One starter but Chad Billingsley was the ace of the staff this season.  He continued his success in his first postseason appearance with a win over the Cubs in Game Two.  Brett Myers outdueled CC Sabathia in his NLDS Game Two performance but made more noise at the plate where he worked Sabathia for a 10-pitch walk that eventually led to a Shane Victorino grand slam and, ultimately, Sabathia’s demise.  Myers also outdueled Billingsley at Citizens Bank Park on August 25.  The Phillies beat the Dodgers 5-0 behind a scorless seven-inning outing by Myers where he scattered nine hits and three walks.  Billingsley pitched six innings and gave up three runs on seven hits and five walks.  Overall, Myers has historically pitched well against Los Angeles with a 4-2 record and 2.61 ERA in 11 career starts.  Billingsley is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA in three career starts against the Phils.

EDGE: Dodgers

GAME THREE (Sunday, October 12, 8:22 PM)
PHILADELPHIA - Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71 ERA) at LOS ANGELES - Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73 ERA)

Jamie Moyer and Hiroki Kuroda were both tapped to close out their NLDS with their teams up 2-0.  Kuroda got the job done but Moyer did not.  Kuroda, the 33-year-old Japanese import, shut down the Cubs for 6-1/3 innings without allowing a run while Moyer, the 22-year veteran, gave up two runs in just four innings of work in the Phillies only NLDS loss.  Kuroda has pitched better than his 9-10 record indicates and has been especially stingy against the Phillies in his two starts.  The “rookie” allowed two runs on four hits in two starts and got a win and a no decision.  Moyer’s performance often hinges on the width of the umpire’s strike zone.  In Game Three, Moyer nibbled around the plate and was forced to be more generous to Milwaukee hitters.  Moyer has struggled against the Dodgers in his career with a 3-5 record and 5.19 ERA.  He also has been torched by Manny Ramirez – he is 18-for-53 (.340) with 10 home runs, 20 RBI and a ridiculous 1.379 OPS.  Also, it’s tough to ignore Kuroda’s success at Dodger Stadium where he was 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA in the regular season and picked up the clincher in the NLDS in Los Angeles.

EDGE: Dodgers

GAME FOUR (Monday, October 13, 8:22 PM)
PHILADELPHIA - Joe Blanton (4-0, 4.20 ERA) at LOS ANGELES - To Be Determined

This is the toughest game to read.  Joe Blanton pitched great in their NLDS clincher and has not lost in a Phillies’ uniform this year.  Since the Phillies picked him up, they are 10-4 when he takes the hill despite an ERA over 4.00.  In the other clubhouse, things are unsure for Game Four.  Initially, manager Joe Torre said he planned on using left-handed rookie Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 4.26 ERA) but has made no official announcement yet.  Greg Maddux is Plan B but the August acquisition went 2-4 with a 5.09 ERA for the Dodgers in the last two months of the season.  The 42-year-old veteran has 33 postseason appearances and 30 starts and is 11-14 with a 3.32 ERA but has not won in the postseason since 2002 when he was 36.  There’s even a Plan C with the possibility of the Dodgers bringing back Lowe on short rest.  A rookie, a veteran far removed from his peak or a top starter who struggles on short rest… Game Four looks like a tough one for the Dodgers.

EDGE: Phillies

GAME FIVE* (Wednesday, October 15, 8:22 PM)
PHILADELPHIA - To Be Determined at LOS ANGELES - To Be Determined

GAME SIX* (Friday, October 17, 8:22 PM)
LOS ANGELES - To Be Determined at PHILADELPHIA - To Be Determined

GAME SEVEN* (Saturday, October 18, 8:22 PM)
LOS ANGELES - To Be Determined at PHILADELPHIA - To Be Determined

* If Necessary

POSITION PLAYERS

CATCHER
Russell Martin, Los Angeles (.280 BA-13 HR-69 RBI)
Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia (.219 BA-4 HR-31 RBI)

Martin is a two-time All-Star and Ruiz went 1-for-14 in the NLDS.  Martin also is one of the grittiest players in the game and actually had a down year in ‘08 but notched five RBI against the Cubs.  Even defensively Martin has the edge and won a Gold Glove for his play behind the plate in 2007.  Backup Chris Coste might get a start in the NLCS and made 70 starts this year for the Phillies.  Offensively, Coste is an upgrade from Ruiz but is not as good defensively behind the plate.

EDGE: Dodgers

FIRST BASEMAN
James Loney, Los Angeles (.289-13-90)
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia (.251-48-146)

Howard gets a knock for his free swinging at the plate but has a nearly identical on-base percentage (.339 to .338) to Loney.  The Phillies get a huge boost with the first three starters being right-handers where Howard thrives with a .601 slugging percentage and 34 of his 48 league leading homers.  The Phillies managed to get by the Brewers without much production from their big bopper and he also struggled against the Dodgers during the regular season with a .133 average but Howard had two homers and nine RBI in eight games.  Loney fared better against the Phils than Howard did against the Dodgers during the regular season.  Even still, it’s tough to ignore Howard’s hot September and at some point, the former MVP is bound to heat up again.

EDGE: Phillies

SECOND BASEMAN
Blake DeWitt, Los Angeles (.264-9-52)
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.292-33-104)

Some argue that any name could be filled in for the Dodgers at second base and the Phillies still have the edge since Utley is often considered the best player at the position.  Utley has seriously cooled since his first three months but still put up respectable numbers and is chomping at the bit to cure his postseason blues.  In seven postseason games, Utley is 4-for-26 (.154) with no home runs and two RBI but the two RBI were the key to the Phillies’ Game One win offensively.  Rookie DeWitt got out of the gate quick but struggled in June and July.  He rebounded in August and September and is a key left-handed bat and strong glove in the field.

EDGE: Phillies

THIRD BASEMAN
Casey Blake, Los Angeles (.274-21-81)
Pedro Feliz, Philadelphia (.249-14-58)

Offensively, Blake is ahead of Feliz but the Phillies will likely use left-handed Greg Dobbs in at least one of the first three games and he hit .301 with nine homers and 40 RBI in a utility role.  The postseason magnifies defense and Feliz brought a mean glove to their successful NLDS.  Oddly enough, both Dobbs and Feliz were super-subs during the season with Dobbs hitting .329 with two homers and 16 RBI in 81 plate appearances as a sub and Feliz hitting .367 with three home runs and 11 RBI in 33 plate appearances as a sub.  The acquisition of Blake was a solid upgrade at third for the Dodgers but the move is often overlooked because of that Manny guy.

EDGE: Phillies (By A Hair)

SHORTSTOP
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles (.357-5-16)
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.277-11-59)

If Furcal was healthy, the edge might actually go to the Dodgers here but his lingering back injury that caused him to miss nearly five months and could impact his playing time over the Best-of-Seven series.  Rollins is no slouch at short and even in a down year following his ‘07 MVP season, it’s tough to measure his intangibles.  Rollins is the heart of the Phillies and has a way of making the big play at the right time — see the diving double play to clinch the NL East two weeks ago, for instance — and tore it up in September with a .405 on-base percentage.  He also hit .375 with a home run to lead off their series clinching win last Sunday in the NLDS.

EDGE: Phillies

LEFT FIELD
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.332-37-121)
Pat Burrell, Philadelphia (.250-33-86)

If their was an heir apparent to Reggie Jackson’s “Mr. October” monicker, his name is Manny Ramirez.  Ramirez has more postseason homers than anyone, ever, with 26.  He hit .500 in their three-game sweep of the Cubs and added two home runs, knocked in three and score five times.  He showed heart, he played hard and hustled.  He’s been the opposite of everything that led to his exodus from Boston at the end of July and landed him in Los Angeles.  Make no mistake about it, the Dodgers are not in the postseason without the presence of Ramirez.  How big of an advantage is Ramirez over Burrell?  Well, which Pat Burrell shows up for this series?  Burrell went 0-for-8 in the first three games in the NLDS but exploded for two homers and four RBI in a clutch 3-for-4 performance in the fourth game.  During the season, Burrell hit .326 in April and .304 in July and blasted 26 homers through the first four months.  In August and September, Burrell hit .181 and .205 and hit only seven home runs over the last two months.  Again, which Pat Burrell shows up for this series?

EDGE: Dodgers

CENTER FIELD
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles (.290-18-76)
Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.293-14-58)

Statistically, these two are extremely close.  Both finished the season with a .799 OPS.  Their runs created per game is close with Victorino at 5.8 and Kemp at 5.6.  Even their stolen base numbers are close with Victorino stealing 36 of 47 and Kemp stealing 35 of 46.  In the postseason, Kemp struggled while the “Flyin’ Hawaiian” starred.  Victorino’s grand slam in the second game was the spark to get the Phillies past Sabathia and the Brewers.  No matter where manager Charlie Manuel put Victorino in the lineup — second or sixth — the switch-hitter found a way to get on base.  In four games, he posted a .471 on-base percentage and had four extra-base hits and five RBI in the series. 

EDGE: Phillies

RIGHT FIELD
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles (.305-20-77)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.273-24-67)

Former Dodger Werth was expected to platoon in right with Geoff Jenkins but the 29-year-old right-handed hitter had a breakout year for the Phillies and Jenkins struggled.  Ethier was a force for Los Angeles and was a huge beneficiary of the Ramirez addition.  In September, Ethier hit .462 with 18 RBI mostly batting in front of Manny in the lineup.  Although Jeff Kent thinks otherwise, Manny’s presence looked to boost Ethier’s numbers.  Werth outperformed Ethier in the NLDS and is definitely a better glove in right but Ethier’s numbers are a notch above Werth’s.

EDGE: Dodgers

STARTING PITCHING
Los Angeles (56-54, 3.87 ERA)
Philadelphia (59-47, 4.23 ERA)

The gap is wider if the Dodgers don’t have the big question mark for Game Four.  Myers is a huge wild card for the Phillies.  He doesn’t match up well with Billingsley but he didn’t against Sabathia either and that one turned in favor of the Phils.  One of the major issues that led to Myers’ mid-season demotion was he missed the “rock star” role of the closer.  Maybe the postseason is the catalyst Myers needs to deliver another huge outing.  Hamels is better than Lowe but it’s not a mismatch.  Moyer doesn’t match up well with the Dodgers and Kuroda is even tougher at home. 

EDGE: Dodgers

RELIEF PITCHING
Los Angeles (28-24, 35 Saves, 3.33 ERA)
Philadelphia (33-23, 47 Saves, 3.19 ERA)

Both bullpens have been strengths for their teams this year but the Dodgers drew a big question mark next to their ‘pen when Takashi Saito went down.  Since then, the closer role has been in flux with Jonathan Broxton blowing eight of 22 save opportunities.  Saito is not at full speed and Torre might use Broxton as the closer instead.  The numbers on the Phillies’ side are amazing.  They are 82-0 including the postseason when leading after eight innings.  After a shaky save in his first postseason appearance as a Phillie, Brad Lidge lived up to his “Lights Out” nickname in the second and fourth game.  Lidge was 41-for-41 in save opportunities during the regular season and 2-for-2 in the postseason.  JC Romero and Ryan Madson have been great as the bridge to Lidge and Chad Durbin had a career year as a full-time reliever. 

EDGE: Phillies

BENCH

The Dodgers have the names — Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre — but the Phillies’ bench has the numbers.  However, it’s the postseason and the Dodgers had no difficulty dispatching the Cubs despite owning the 15th-best record in baseball.  Sometimes it just makes sense to throw the stats out the window.

EDGE: Dodgers

COACHING

While Manuel is underrated as the Phillies’ skipper, he doesn’t have the pedigree that Torre has.  And Torre’s success with the Yankees was validated with the Yankees missing the postseason for the first time since 1993.  Add in that Torre’s Dodgers made it to the postseason despite an injury-plagued season that forced Torre to work some magic in the lineup, the rotation and the bullpen.  How can you ignore four World Series rings?  In the case of Manuel, sometimes Charlie leaves you shaking your head.  Sometimes he goes against “the book” but in 2008 especially, his decisions made you second-guess “the book” and not him.  Probably the most amazing thing Manuel accomplished is winning over the tough fans in Philadelphia who are now on the Charlie Manuel bandwagon.

EDGE: Dodgers

————————————————————–

PHILLIES’ THREE KEYS

• Production from Utley and Howard

Is it possible for the Phillies to advance to the World Series with little help from their third and fourth hitter?  Both were considered MVP candidates in 2008 but neither impressed in their NLDS win over the Brewers.  Their match-up with the Dodgers is in their favor with the Dodgers possibly not starting a lefty the entire series. 

• DEFENSE!

According to John Dewan’s Fielding Bible, the Phillies are above-average at every position defensively with the exception of Pat Burrell in left.  Compare that to the Dodgers who have five below-average fielders and the numbers are lopsided in favor of the Phillies.  Even the frustrating at times Howard has a way of turning in a defensive gem from time to time.  Even Burrell posted 12 outfield assists during the year but is limited by his range. 

• Continue Bullpen Dominance

Only the Toronto Blue Jays had a better bullpen in 2008 and there’s those ridiculous numbers by Brad Lidge worth repeating one more time — 43-for-43 in save opportunities in the regular season and postseason — and those ridiculous numbers by the Phillies when leading after the eighth worth repeating — 82-0.  Beyond Hamels, the Phillies’ starters are not dominant but they have a way of keeping them in the game where the bullpen is often a factor.  They need to continue to deliver shut down performances and Lidge needs to dodge the demons of postseason past.

DODGERS’ THREE KEYS

• Manny, Manny, Manny!

Can the Dodgers win without Manny Ramirez?  Before he arrived in L.A., the Dodgers were a .500 club.  It’s tough to say what happens when Manny didn’t produce — he reached based in all but three games played after arriving in “Mannywood”.  The Phillies can’t avoid him the entire series.  The Phillies know they can’t avoid Manny forever.  It’s important the Dodgers avoid allowing the Phillies to work around Ramirez which they will if the team gets the opportunity.  And Manny has never homered at Citizens Bank Park and hit just .212 against the Phillies in 10 games in 2008.

• Youth Movement

The Dodgers have a roster filled with veteran talent but many of them are on the bench for this series.  Meanwhile, the team has five starting position players aged 26 and under and possibly two guys in the rotation — if Kershaw starts Game Four — under 24.  Potential closer Broxton is also 24 which adds up to a lot of guys lacking the experience.  Torre has stuck by these guys all year and they don’t beat the Cubs without their youthful contributions no matter what Manny hit in the series.

• Continue to Make the Right Decisions

Torre’s decisions throughout this series will have a huge impact on the outcome.  How hard does he push Furcal?  Who starts Game Four?  Who is the closer?  Is there a spot to slide in a veteran in the lineup to provide a spark?  Torre has options in all cases but the options are not as clear as starting Manny in left or Martin behind the plate.  The biggest decision facing Torre right now is Game Four and could swing the series either way but a wrong decision in the closer role is even more deadly and there’s no easy answer there.

THE PICK

A long, tough series with both teams having a real shot at advancing to their first World Series in 20 — or 25 in the Phillies’ case — years.  There are more question marks for the Dodgers than the Phillies and it’s hard to imagine a third consecutive poor postseason series by Howard and Utley.  PHILLIES IN SEVEN GAMES.