Here are 25 points that will lead me to a wrong pick:

1. IGNORE THE DODGERS NUMBERS THIS SEASON…
The Dodgers now are not the same team as the Dodgers then.
• SS Rafael Furcal (.357, 5 HRs, 16 RBIs in 143 at-bats; missed most of season with back injury)
• LF Manny Ramirez (.396, 17, 53 in 53 games with Dodgers after July 31 trade from Boston; .332, 37, 121 overall)
• 3B Casey Blake (.251, 10, 23 in 59 games with Dodgers after July 26 trade from Cleveland; .274, 21, 81 overall)

2. DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE FURCAL EFFECT
Beyond Manny and Casey Blake, the L.A. guys have Raphael Furcal back on the field after back surgery. When Furcal went out in early May, he was hitting .366 with an on-base percentage of .448 and the Dodgers were 18-14, having just won nine of 10. He returned for the final week of the regular season, then started all three games of the NLDS, hitting .333 while getting on base in seven of his 15 plate appearances. The difference with and without Furcal so far doesn’t appear to be huge. Dodgers are 22-16, including the first-round series with the Cubs, when Furcal is in the starting lineup as opposed to 65-62 when he isn’t. Furcal is 0-for-8 lifetime against Lidge.

3. MAN AT WORK
The Rays reliever Australian Grant Balfour appeared in all three ALDS games the Rays won, working 3 1-3 scoreless innings with one walk and four strikeouts. Balfour spent the first two months of the season at Triple-A Durham, where he was 1-0 with a 0.38 ERA in 15 appearances. He rejoined the Rays on May 30 and went 6-2 with a 1.54 ERA in 51 games. He struck out 82 in 58 1-3 innings, leading all major league relievers in strikeouts per nine innings (12.65). The Rays acquired him in a trade with Milwaukee in 2007 for pitcher Seth McClung.

4. MANNY AT WORK
Manny Ramirez was 5-for-10 against the Cubs and added two homers to increase his postseason career total to 26. Lifetime against Brett Myers, Ramirez is 3-for-19 with five strikeouts and eight RBI. Against Jamie Moyer, Ramirez has 10 home runs and a .340 average in 53 at-bats.

5. HOWEVER…
Manny hit just .240 with 1 HR in eight games against the Phillies in August (including 2-for-14 at Citizens Bank Park). In 14 games in Philadelphia, Ramirez has hit .155 (nine for 58) with three home runs and nine runs batted in. His career on-base percentage is only .219. Over the last three seasons, Ramirez’s .121 average (four for 33) at Citizens Bank Park is second-worst among non-pitchers with a minimum of 30 at-bats. Ramirez hasn’t had a problem hitting against the Phillies outside of Philadelphia (17 for 37, .459 average).

6. INFIELDERS WHO HIT
Dodgers infielders hit a combined .266, the Phils infielders hit .265. But the Phillies infielders hit 114 home runs (second in baseball) and drove in 399 runs (first). The Dodgers got 62 home runs (13th) and 305 RBIs (13th) out of those positions.

7. HANGING CHAD?
Dodgers righty Chad Billingsley was 16-10 this season with a 3.14 ERA. The Phillies Burrell, Rollins, Utley and Ryan Howard are all hitting more than .300 lifetime against him.

8. OLD MAN MOYER
Jaime Moyer, 45, has played in the major leagues for 22 seasons with the Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox and Mariners before Philadelphia. He has never advanced past the Championship Series. When the Phillies won the World Series in 1980, Moyer skipped school at nearby Souderton High School to attend the victory parade down Broad Street. Moyer should not be confused with Amy Smart who played “Jaime Moyer, the Tasty Coma Wife” on “Scrubs.”

9. TALE OF TWO HOMERS
Chase Utley and Ryan Howard each hit two homers against the Dodgers this season, but overall against L.A., Utley batted .355 while Howard hit .133.

10. MAUI WOWEE
In the NLDS, Shane Victorino hit .357 with four extra-base hits including a grand slam off CC Sabathia. Victorino could have been doing this for the Dodgers instead of the Phils this postseason. LA drafted him, signed him and developed him. Dodgers never added him to their 40-man roster, left him unprotected in three consecutive Rule V drafts, and let him get away in two of them - first to San Diego in 2002 before the Padres returned him in May of the following year, then to the Phillies in 2004. By the by, the Phillies also offered him back to the Dodgers before he ever got out of spring training, for half the $50,000 the Phillies had paid to get him, but the Dodgers turned down the offer. Over his past 17 games, including the division series, Victorino is batting .439 (29 for 66) with eight doubles, four home runs and 11 RBIs.

11. STANDING ON THE LIDGE
Brad Lidge, who is deserving of both Cy Young and MVP votes, was perfect in his first season in Philadelphia, helping the Phillies go 79-0 when leading after eight innings. He had a 1.10 ERA in save situations and a 0.61 ERA in his last 15 appearances.

12. BROXTON ROCKS
The Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton has been the Dodgers closer of late and had 14 saves in 16 chances during Takashi Saito’s absence with a strained ligament in his right elbow. However, he was second in the majors in blown saves this season with eight.

13. AND YET, IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA
This is only the Phillies’ 11th postseason appearance in their 126-year history. They’ve won but one World Series title (1980) and lost more games, 10,098, than any franchise in professional sports.

14. PSYCHIC OR PSYCHOTIC?
Springfield, PA resident and psychic Crystal Shadows has said that the Phils will beat L.A. Shadows advised that the opener of the series with the Dodgers “will not be a boring game,” and that she sees either a major injury or a game-affecting adjustment. Shadows said Boston will most likely win the American League Championship Series. “The less capable team, Boston, might end up in the World Series,” she said. “If the Phillies play Boston in the World Series, they will win.” “The difference between being psychic and psychotic is whether or not your little voices are right,” she said.

15. THE LOWEDOWN
Against Dodgers righthander Derek Lowe, Jimmy Rollins is 6-for-20 with two doubles, Pat Burrell is 6-for-19, and Chase Utley is 5-for-14. Lowe is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies, none occurring this year. Overall, he is 4-1 with two saves and a 3.02 ERA in his career against the Phils.

16. HE WANTS TO CELEBRATE WITH MORE SAKE
Hiroki Kuroda, who was 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA, allowed only four hits and two runs with 12 strikeouts in 13 innings against the Phillies.

17. PUT DOWN THE MIKE AND PICK UP THE BAT
In the 1983 NLCS, a best-of-five series which the Phillies won in four games, Gary Matthews Sr. was the series’ Most Valuable Player. Matthews hit Dodgers pitching for a .429 average, three home runs and eight RBIs in four games. Matthews is now 58 and a Phillies broadcaster.

18. HE DOESN’T STAND PAT
Current Phillies Pat Gillick has been GM of four teams, including the Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners and all have played in the postseason.

19. CHASING A RING
Chase Utley hit in 18 of the Phillies’ last 19 games but batted only .133 against Milwaukee.

20. PHILLIES TOTALS VS. DEREK LOWE: .205, 4 HR, 17 RBI in 151 AB
Chase Utley: 5-for-14 (.357), 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 K
Pat Burrell: 6-for-19 (.316), 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K
Jimmy Rollins: 6-for-20 (.300),. 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 K
Matt Stairs: 2-for-15, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 K
Ryan Howard: 2-for-16, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 K
Geoff Jenkins: 2-for-12, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K
Greg Dobbs: 0-for-9, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K
Shane Victorino: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI 0 K
Pedro Feliz: 5-for-23 (.217), 2 HR, 2 RBI, 7 K

21. PHILLIES TOTALS VS. HIROKI KURODA
Chase Utley: 2-for-6, 0 HR, 1 RBI
Jayson Werth: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI
Carlos Ruiz: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI
REST OF TEAM: 0-for-30, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 12 K, 2 BB

22. PHILLIES TOTALS VS. CHAD BILLINGSLEY: .290, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 15 K, 69 AB
Pedro Feliz: 4-for-12, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K
Chase Utley: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 K
Jimmy Rollins: 3-for-9, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K
Pat Burrell: 3-for-10, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 K
Ryan Howard: 2-for-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K
Shane Victorino: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 K
Jayson Werth: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 K
Carlos Ruiz: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 K

23. MANAGER A MANAGER
Charlie Manuel has managed a total of 1058 games with a record of 574-484   .543.
Joe Torre has managed a total of 4005 games with a record of 2151-1848      .538.

24. THE MEN IN BLUE
Mike Reilly, working his ninth LCS, will be the umpire crew chief for the NL championship series and Tim McClelland, working his eighth LCS was selected as crew chief for the ALCS. Other NL umps: Mike Winters, Gary Cederstrom, Jerry Meals, Ted Barrett and Mike Everitt. Other AL umps: Derryl Cousins, Brian Gorman, Brian O’Nora, Alfonso Marquez and Sam Holbrook.

25. TIM ON MANNY
“It’s extraordinary - the dichotomy between what he was in Boston and what he is in Los Angeles,” jabbering analyst Tim McCarver said. “I mean, talk about wearing out your welcome in a town, and it was a long welcome with the Red Sox. But some of the things he did were simply despicable, despicable - like not playing, refusing to play. Forgetting what knee to limp on. And now it’s washed, it’s gone.”

Not gone in Boston, McCarver said, but he gives Ramirez his complete due for what he’s done in L.A.

“A rejuvenated Manny, I think it would be fair to say,” McCarver said, sitting in the Phillies dugout yesterday. “More than old Manny. Manny’s doing things that even Manny doesn’t do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base.”

“It’s a wonderful story in many, many ways, and from Boston’s standpoint, it’s a horrible story, I would imagine, because he could be doing that for Boston,” McCarver said.

THE WORST PROGNOSTICATOR ON THE PLANET
I’m going with the Rays (in 6) against the Dodgers (in 6)  – I urge you, I implore you, bet against me.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Bill Chuck is available for radio appearances, and writing for print or the web. Please contact me at Bill@billy-ball.com or by calling 617-566-2784.