I have only one complaint regarding A.J. Burnett–he didn’t/isn’t giving the Blue Jays’ front office or their fans a clean break.

Yeah, he’s gone, I just wish that he’d let J.P. Ricciardi get a head start in rebuilding the Jays’ rotation for next season.

If he’s worried about any reactions when he returns to the Rogers Centre–well there will always be the phallucranial, rectally inclined folks who are going to boo, to yell insults et cetera regardless of how he handles his departure.

May as well get it over with; I can see Burnett’s agent wanting to keep Toronto’s offer on the table as long as possible in case the uncertain economy causes the free agent market to be unusually soft, but still…

Somebody is bound to offer him more money than the Jays have on the table.

I bear no ill will towards A.J. The opt out was negotiated in good faith by both parties, he pitched well enough this year that it would be ridiculous not to parlay it into a bigger payday–that’s the reason for getting it in the first place. It has financial value and it would be wrong on anyone’s part to ask him simply to forgo it without compensation.

As I wrote earlier today becoming a major league free agent is quite an achievement and the player has every right to use it to choose where he wants to play under whatever circumstances he can negotiate.

As I’ve written on several occasions here, at THT and MSN Canada (The A.J. Burnett debacle MSN Canada, Do not sweat Burnett Baseball Digest Daily, Daydream Bereaver Hardball Times) it might not be the worst thing to lose Burnett since his history suggests that he’s due to become injured and/or ineffective again. Right now, the thought of losing him hurts because he was 12-3, 3.12 ERA over his final 19 starts and we forget that over his previous 18 starts before that (stretching back into last season) he went 7-8, 5.73 ERA.

Had those run been reversed and the rough run was how he finished 2008 nobody would be losing a sweat over his departure and chances are there would be plenty of volunteers to help him pack.

We should be grateful that had J.P. Ricciardi been more proactive about the offense earlier in the season, Burnett might have been a big part of a post season team.

However, we do have the next best thing about his leaving–were Burnett serious about staying in Toronto it would’ve happened already. Now that we’re witnessing the usual ‘saying all the right things’ that free agents and their representation spout during these times, we know that Burnett will be leaving the Jays seeking his deserved riches that his talent provides.

I’d say chances are excellent we’ll be breathing a collective sigh of relief when we read that A.J. has gone on the D.L. after he signed a 5 year/$80 million contract and it’s not with the Jays.

That’s not meant as snark–the Jays paid what was at the time a premium for his services and it wasn’t long into his first season in Canada that he was on the shelf; indeed he opened 2006 on the disabled list and come August 1, he was 2-5, 4.84 ERA and folks were screaming at Ricciardi‘s idiocy for bringing him here.

Hopefully Ricciardi is looking for a slightly better than league average innings eating starter to go along with Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, David Purcey and whoever wins the fifth spot in the rotation.

I think Litsch will fill Shaun Marcum’s shoes just fine as I wrote in the MSN Canada column:

It might surprise fans to know that there hasn’t been a lot of difference between Marcum and Litsch the last two seasons. Earned run average tells us what the pitcher gave up, however to get an idea of how effective a pitcher is likely to be it’s good to look at how many walks and home runs he gives up (per nine innings) and how many he strikes out (per nine innings). That’s all BB/9, K/9 and HR/9 mean below–another important thing to look at is how many ground balls hitters get off him as opposed to fly balls (GB/FB); after all, ground balls can be turned into double plays and fly balls can become home runs.

2008         IP      ERA    HR/9     BB/9     K/9   GB/FB
Marcum:     151.1   3.39    1.23     2.97    8.72    1.04
J. Litsch:  176.0   3.58    1.02     1.99    5.62    1.30
2007         IP      ERA    HR/9     BB/9     K/9   GB/FB
Marcum:     159.0   4.13    1.53     2.77    6.91    1.09
J. Litsch:  111.0   3.81    1.14     2.92    4.05    1.58

We see that last two seasons that Litsch gives up fewer home runs and less walks (in 2008) than Marcum and he gets a lot more ground balls from opposing hitters. Marcum has struck out more but that’s offset by Litsch’s aforementioned ability to not walk hitters and keeping the ball in the park. Due to this, Litsch had a better ERA than Marcum last year and they were fairly close this season despite Litsch throwing a lot more innings.

Further, Litsch averaged more slightly more innings per start than Marcum this year.

As to the strikeouts; in 2007, Litsch’s K/9 was 4.05, before his demotion it was 4.6, it was 5.9 after his return. He’s getting better and what shouldn’t be forgotten is Litsch is over three years younger than Marcum. Litsch will be 24 next season, and when Marcum was 24 he had a 5.06 ERA in 78.1 IP with the Jays and 3.40 ERA in 53 IP in Syracuse.

I also think Purcey will continue to improve and there are enough in-house options to hold down the final spot until the return of Dustin McGowan. MLB’s best bullpen will be that much better next year offering support to the starting staff.

The dollars not spent on Burnett will be used for other areas and when all is said and done I think Jay fans will be happy it worked out as it did.

Yes, there is a part of me ‘whistling past the graveyard’ that A.J. has turned the corner and will be a regular 180-200 IP starting pitcher but I wrote the same thing in March 2006 (the beginning of the A.J. era):

Yes, he may be a bit of a head case, but that’s not the part of the anatomy that worries me. Despite being fully healed from Tommy John surgery on his elbow back in 2003, he was shut down for an elbow problem in September 2004, and decided to scare the collective poachies out of Jaydom last week (or two weeks ago depending on when the powers-that-be decide to post this puppy) after leaving a Spring Training game with elbow soreness. On the bright side, after 2004, he threw 209 innings last year. He’ll be 29 which means he’ll be coming into his prime years. I’m gonna go with the optimistic side of me (the ones the Blue Jays and Leafs make a point of stomping the life out of every year post-1993).

So, I wish A.J. Burnett the very best in his future endeavours and he’ll receive a rousing ovation from yours truly when he returns to the Rogers Centre (except against the Blue Jays) and look forward to a 2009 that will be a lot better than most think.

Even without A.J. Burnett.

Best Regards

John

“A $90,000 slave is still a slave.”–Curt Flood

Becoming a major league free agent is not an easy task. I’m not talking about non-tendered roster filler type players, I’m discussing the ones that make the headlines: The A-Rods, the Manny Ramirez’s, the C.C Sabathia’s etc. the ones that the Yankees are allegedly expressing a major interest in.

When a team realizes they have a jewel on their hands, they will often go to great length to postpone the player’s time until he qualifies for free agency. In the early part of their career options will be used sending them down to the minors to delay their service clocks for arbitration and free agency right. Once they finally become arbitration-eligible, the young stud will often be tempted with a long term contract that will buy out some free agency years.

To use one example, Johan Santana entered professional baseball in 1995 yet if the Mets pick up the option year in his contract in 2014 it will mean that the two-time Cy Young winner will not have hit the open market in 20 years in the game.

Granted, he’s made some choices along the way but it doesn’t change the fact that the Houston Astros, Florida Marlins, Minnesota Twins and New York Mets have managed to persuade Santana not to have competitive bidding on his services and he will be in major league baseball for two decades without once deciding unilaterally where he wishes to play.

As we know, true free agency did not come easily to the game. Players were indentured servants that forfeited control of their professional careers for pretty much the first three quarters of the 20th century as soon as they inked their first professional contract. Baseball’s antitrust exemption allowed teams to treat and cheat players without any threat of censure or consequence and there was little they could do about it.

They had masters–either they did what they were told or they could find another line of work.

Marvin Miller and a generation of self-sacrificing players (including Curt Flood) hung together and fought the major league cartel until an arbitrator named Peter Seitz ruled that a player option was good only for one year and not perpetually and for the first time in many decades, baseball players were given a right taken for granted by the common man–to change employers when a work contract expired. For the first time in a long time players were free to choose where they wished to work and under what circumstances they wanted to ply their trade.

Now it appears the major league baseball players association is again trying to deprive players of that right.

CC Sabathia told reporters this past week that his experience with the Brewers opened up his world. That no longer was he married to the idea of using his impending free agency to relocate his job near his West Coast home …

But there will be more forces in play than just geography or even the actual dollars. Keep in mind that, in high-profile free agency cases like this, the Players Association also plays a role. And that potential impact should only help the Yankees.

Flash back to the 2002-03 offseason. The country was headed to war, and fresh off a new collective bargaining agreement, teams exhibited (conspired for) self-discipline.

The one free agent set to make big-time money was Jim Thome … The Phillies bid heavily on Thome, offering him a six-year, $85-million package. The Indians … countered with a five-year, $60-million deal …

But the Players Association leaned heavily on Thome to take the Phillies’ offer, saying, essentially: “You can’t turn this down. Not this winter.”

This isn’t to say that Thome chose the Phillies’ offer — which concluded with the Phillies paying a good portion of Thome’s salary for the White Sox the past three seasons — only due to union pressure. But it absolutely was a factor, according to a person familiar with the situation …

Collusion has long been a part of the game. Under the old reserve rules, club owners and G.M.’s often spoke about what they planned to pay players on their clubs. This was done to keep salaries down and there was an unofficial limit on what a superstar player could earn–$100,000. It was this sort of manipulation by the clubs that allowed teams to vastly underpay their best players.

Marvin Miller wished to open up the player marketplace with the simple goal of letting owners decide pay through competitive bidding (as opposed to collusive machination) on players’ services. While Miller knew this would create upward pressure on salaries, his biggest concern was that a player be free to choose where he wanted to play and for how much.

Back in early part of the 1990’s Twins’ Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett was mulling two packages: one from the Twins and a higher one from the Red Sox. Unsure of what to do, he allegedly placed a call to Miller to seek his advice. Miller had one question for the centerfielder ‘where do you want to play?’ Puckett replied ‘Minnesota’ to which Miller countered that he should take Minnesota’s offer.

To Miller it was simple–what the player wanted was the primary concern. After all, the key word in free agent is “free.”

However, it appears that the MLBPA is like ownership used to be pre-Messersmith/McNally–more concerned with manipulating compensation than concern over player well-being. The players have a new master: the salary bar and now free agents have lost their freedom to choose the circumstances in which they wish to work; now, they’re expected to forgo their freedom and go to the highest bidder even if that is not the player’s first choice of where he wishes to play.

Miller realized that the free and open competitive bidding on player services will cause salaries to rise. However, under Don Fehr and Gene Orza, that’s not good enough and they’re deliberately trying to manipulate the market at the cost of player freedom.

How is it any different if owners are restricting player freedom to keep salaries down any worse than the union doing likewise to keep salaries increasing?

If a $90,000 slave is still a slave, doesn’t that principle apply if that total is $90,000, $900,000, $9,000,000, $90,000,000 or more? What’s the point of being a free agent if your future will be decided by someone else–in this case by the team offering the most money?

The thing is, why do players even need agents? Once a player files for free agency, just have the clubs phone in their offers to the MLBPA office and when the bidding is done, inform the player where he’ll be playing for the next few years.

Marvin Miller freed major league players from servitude to ownership, now who is going to unshackle players from servitude to the salary bar? Don Fehr and Gene Orza have forgotten the history of how the MLBPA became the most powerful union in the world–unity and the fact that money splintered the other side.

The players fought for freedom to choose, it was a cause to many of the players under Miller and something that superstar and scrub alike can unite behind. However pushing up the salary bar is only of benefit to a small minority of union members and history shows us that it’s difficult to keep those with differing financial interests on the same page. Bud Selig has managed to unite ownership to a degree not been before in the game’s history but he only has 30 teams to keep together while MLBPA membership is at 1200 with membership undergoing constant turnover whereas the ownership cartel is relatively static.

By restricting the benefits of free agency so that a small minority might be able to make a little more than what they might from competitive bidding on the services and choosing where they go is a recipe for disaster and disunity at a time when the MLBPA needs consensus.

Further, for a body concerned with fairness and competition they seem to have an unhealthy concern for the on field well-being of teams like the Yankees and other big spenders who already have a multitude of advantages. They now have one more–a union that will make sure that the best talent find their way on to their rosters.

If C.C. Sabathia and others like him are being unduly influenced by union and agent when they become free agents then they’re not free agents at all–they have simply changed masters. It’s the union’s job to keep the player marketplace as open and honest as possible and let the chips fall where they may. It takes players a lot of years to reach the point where they can shop their services and choose their next destination.

Neither fan, nor owner, nor media, nor agent or union should interfere with a free agent’s decision-making process.

For more on this, see Who wants to subsidize a billionaire?

Best Regards

John

…Curt Schilling could be pitching for the Red Sox in the post season, well that’s if they would’ve allowed his doctor to operate on his shoulder last winter. This is coming from Schilling’s doctor Craig Morton.

“If the [team] would have let me do the surgery in January, he’d probably be pitching in the playoffs now,” Morgan said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

…According to a Associated Press report the San Diego Padres are downplaying a report that owner John Moores would sell his 49% of the Padres are part of his divorce to wife Becky.

“Obviously, since the Padres are part of the community estate, the matter of the Padres will need to be addressed as part of the divorce proceedings,” the team said in a statement released in response to the report by NBC 7/39.

“No decision regarding the Padres has been made, and the divorce proceedings are the subject of confidential mediation. Neither John Moores nor the Padres will have any further comment on the report.”

…When the Boston Red Sox take the field tonight for Game 1 of the ALCS in St. Petersberg, center fielder Mark Kotsay will be manning first base. With Mike Lowell out of the remainder of the playoffs manager Terry Francona has decided to move regular first baseman Kevin Youkillis across the diamond to third base meaning that Mark Kotsay who was aquired by trade in August will man first.

“At first base, you’re 110 feet from guys like (lefty) Cliff Floyd,” Kotsay said. “I’d prefer to be 220 feet away, because there is more reaction time.”

“I’ve watched enough good first basemen to know how to make the smart play as opposed to the aggressive one,” he said. “I hope I feel natural over there. Getting comfortable comes with repetition.”

I’m still a little confused why you’d start a guy that’s only played a grand total of 34 games at first base when you’ve got Sean Casey sitting on your bench,  who as luck might have it is a first baseman by trade.

…According to Cathal Kelly of the Toronto Star the Blue Jays wont be able to talk contract terms with pitcher AJ Burnett until November. It’s pretty much a done deal that Burnett opts out of his contract and takes a gamble with the free agent market. Here’s what his agent Darek Braunecker had to say.

“He’s got till fifteen days after the World Series (to decide on the opt-out),” Braunecker said. “I don’t know if it should or would take all fifteen days to make that decision. If he does so, it’s probably going to be sooner rather than later.”

Here it is: October in the American League and two East Division powerhouses are playing for the right to go to the World Series.  There’s a little bad blood, some smack talk and a defending World Series champion involved.  If you just woke up from a coma, you’re surprised to see the Tampa Bay Rays and not the New York Yankees facing off with the Boston Red Sox for a chance to bring the World Series title back to the A.L. East for the seventh time in 13 years.

To get to this point, the Red Sox bounced the AL’s best regular season team, the Los Angeles Angels, out in four games and the Rays continued to disprove the naysayers with a decisive four-game victory in their ALDS with the Chicago White Sox.  Now, the Red Sox and Rays renew a rivalry ignited during the season by a tight division race in the East, a bench-clearing brawl and some banter back and forth between the two teams.

The Red Sox have not lost a postseason series since being swept in 2005 by the White Sox and own two of the last four World Championships.  The Rays have defied everyone’s expectations throughout the season and took advantage of a tired White Sox club who had to win three elimination games to make it to the postseason. 

Head to head, the Rays took the regular season series for only the second time in their franchise’s history winning 10 out of 18.  Their 10 wins included six one-run wins and two extra-inning walk-off wins.  Coincidentally, both walk-off wins came off of Boston’s Mike Timlin who was added to the Red Sox’ ALCS roster.  Both teams played excellent at home.  The Rays owned the best home record in the Majors with 57 wins followed by the Red Sox who won 56 at Fenway.  Neither team was able to post a winning record on the road which makes home field advantage more likely to be a factor in this series than any other.

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

GAME ONE (Friday, October 10, 8:37 PM)
BOSTON - Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90 ERA) at TAMPA BAY - James Shields (14-8, 3.56 ERA)

The three-man rotation in the ALDS worked out perfectly for the playoff-built Red Sox but it also forces the team to use Dice-K in Game 1.  The Red Sox were 1-2 when Matsuzaka started against the Rays this year and he did pitched five innings in all three starts.  The extra rest benefits the Sox bullpen who typically work longer than normal during Dice-K’s starts.  He gave up three runs in five innings in Game 2 of the ALDS in a no decision and has only made it through seven innings in nine of his 30 regular and postseason starts.  A major plus for Matsuzaka is his ability to pitch on the road — he was 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 13 road starts in ‘08 — and was 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts at Tropicana Field.  For Tampa Bay, James Shields takes the hill for Game 1.  Against Boston, Shields was shut down in Tampa Bay but was bombed in two starts at Fenway.  Overall, Shields was a much better pitcher at Tropicana Field where he went 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 16 starts.  Shields also kept the White Sox contained in Game 1 and earned the Rays’ first postseason victory in franchise history.

EDGE: Rays

GAME TWO (Saturday, October 11, 8:07 PM)
BOSTON - Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03 ERA) at TAMPA BAY - Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49 ERA)

Is Josh Beckett healthy enough to regain his amazing postseason form?  He wasn’t in the only loss by the Red Sox in the ALDS and hasn’t won since September 5.  The Rays are very familiar with Beckett — they faced the veteran five times in ‘08.  Beckett went 2-1 with an impressive 2.06 ERA but the Rays won the two no decisions thanks to some dead wood in the Red Sox lineup.  Kazmir made four starts against the Red Sox and went 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in those starts.  He is a star at Tropicana Field where he went 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA but one of those two losses came against the Red Sox.  If Beckett is still not 100%, there is a strong chance that both pitchers get the bullpens involved as Kazmir has not pitched past the sixth inning since July 21.

EDGE: Red Sox

GAME THREE (Monday, October 13, 4:37 PM)
TAMPA BAY - Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70 ERA) at BOSTON - Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA)

Matt Garza took the only loss in the ALDS, struggled in September — 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA in five starts — and fared poorly on the road.  He also was hit or miss against the Red Sox with a 1-1 record and 4.50 ERA in four starts.  To make it even tougher on the Rays, they must face Jon Lester who has not allowed a run in three postseason starts including two in the ALDS.  He’s also given the Rays fits in ‘08 with a 3-0 record and 0.90 ERA in three starts.  While Game 1 and 2’s pitching match-ups on paper look like they could go either way, this one is heavily in favor of Lester and the Red Sox.  Was it mentioned that this is the first game of the series at Fenway?

EDGE: Red Sox

GAME FOUR (Tuesday, October 14, 8:07 PM)
TAMPA BAY - Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38 ERA) at BOSTON - Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13 ERA)

Despite struggling through part of August and September, Andy Sonnanstine delivered a solid outing in the Game 4 clincher over the White Sox.  The Rays hope that win has the Rays’ righty back on track especially since Sonnanstine pitched 13 innings without allowing an earned run in two no decisions against Boston.  Wakefield has not pitched since September 28 and went 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay in ‘08.  The 42-year-old Florida native is 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA in his last three postseason starts but has a ton of postseason experience.  Beyond Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox have a losing record when anyone else is the starter, a weakness left unexposed in the ALDS thanks to a strategic mistake to take the schedule with the extra day off.

EDGE: Rays

GAME FIVE* (Thursday, October 16, 8:07 PM)
TAMPA BAY - To Be Determined at BOSTON - To Be Determined

GAME SIX* (Saturday, October 18, 4:37 PM)
BOSTON - To Be Determined at TAMPA BAY - To Be Determined

GAME SEVEN* (Sunday, October 19, 8:07 PM)
BOSTON - To Be Determined at TAMPA BAY - To Be Determined

* If Necessary

————————————————–

POSITION PLAYERS

CATCHER
Jason Varitek, Boston (.220 BA-13 HR-43 RBI)
Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay (.295 BA-7 HR-54 RBI)

Sure, Jason Varitek is a leader on the field and calls a solid game behind the plate but that gives their starting pitchers an advantage and boosts the rest of the team.  The 36-year-old veteran had his worst Major League season with a .672 OPS and a dip in power and production.  His ALDS performance mirrored the regular season with Varitek hitting 3-for-14 (.214) without an RBI.  Dioner Navarro hits for average and has played great defense for the Rays and delivered in his first postseason series with a .400 average, three doubles and three RBI. 

EDGE: Rays

FIRST BASEMAN
Kevin Youkilis, Boston (.312-29-115)/Mark Kotsay, Boston (.276-6-49)
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay (.247-31-102)

If this were just Kevin Youkilis vs. Carlos Pena, the edge is easily on the Red Sox side.  However, with Mike Lowell out for the series, Youkilis will split time at first and third.  Mark Kotsay was a nice addition to the team when injuries rocked Boston’s outfield but a big drop-off from “Youk”.  Carlos Pena played especially well against Boston.  He hit .314 with four homers and 12 RBI in 16 games.  Pena also returned to form in the second half of the season and led the team in home runs and RBI. 

EDGE: Red Sox (Rays Get Edge When Youkilis Plays Third)

SECOND BASEMAN
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.326-17-83)
Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay (.274-6-48)

Dustin Pedroia is a serious MVP candidate in the American League but the Rays’ move of Akinori Iwamura from third to second was a huge boost to the club’s infield defense.  Like many of his teammates, Iwamura had an awesome LDS with a .389 average, a double, triple, home run, four RBI and three runs scored.  Pedroia was invisible in the LDS where he hit 1-for-17.  Last year, Pedroia also struggled against the Angels in the LDS and heated up in the LCS and after his ‘08 performance, it’s hard to expect him to continue to slump.

EDGE: Red Sox

THIRD BASEMAN
Alex Cora, Boston (.270-9-16)/Kevin Youkilis, Boston (.312-29-115)
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (.272-27-85)

Evan Longoria is a perfect example of why the Rays are where they are.  Longoria is a rookie but doesn’t play like one.  He hit two home runs in his first two postseason at-bats and sparked the Rays past the White Sox in Game 1 to continue the success of his possible Rookie of the Year season.  The absence of Lowell forces the Red Sox to weaken their lineup with use of Alex Cora at third or Kotsay at first.  Either at first or third, the Red Sox are going to feel it.  For the purposes of this breakdown, the Red Sox get dinged here.

EDGE: Rays 

SHORT STOP
Jed Lowrie, Boston (.259-2-46)
Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.286-1-37)

His numbers are not “Ruthian” or even “Jeterish” but many call the Rays’ Jason Bartlett their team MVP.  Bartlett is in his first year with the Rays after four seasons with the Twins and has been a spark for the team.  Boston’s Jed Lowrie only started 45 games at short during the season but has been their guy at short during the playoffs.  He also is credited with the walk-off single that advanced the Red Sox to the LCS.

EDGE: Rays

LEFT FIELD
Jason Bay, Boston (.286-31-101)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.273-8-54)

Manny who?  The Red Sox-Ramirez trade deadline debacle landed Boston a blossoming superstar in Jay Bay.  His regular season numbers were strong with the Red Sox but downright fantastic in the LDS.  He homered in Game 1 and Game 2 and scored the winning run in Game 4.  Bay hit .412 with two homers and five RBI in the series and had the best numbers of any player in the first round of the postseason with the exception of, well, Manny Ramirez.  Even though the Red Sox have the advantage in left, the return of Carl Crawford from injury was big.  The Rays manufacture a lot of runs and Crawford’s speed on the base-paths should help with that if he can get on.  He’s also a Gold Glove candidate in left but might not get the accolade since he possesses a below-average arm.

EDGE: Red Sox

CENTER FIELD
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.280-9-47)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.273-9-67)

Both Jacoby Ellsbury and B.J. Upton possess impressive speed on the basepaths.  On defense, Upton has the arm and Ellsbury has the range.  Neither is a Gold Glover but they aren’t liabilities either.  Ellsbury was a slightly better hitter at the plate and more effective on the base-paths and Upton struck out 134 times compared to Ellsbury’s 80.  Upton turned on the power in Game 3 and 4 of the LDS with a home run in Game 3 and two in Game 4.  Ellsbury was no slouch in their LDS with the Angels with three doubles and six RBI. 

EDGE: Red Sox

RIGHT FIELD
J.D. Drew, Boston (.280-19-64)
Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay (.263-4-13)/Gabe Gross, Tampa Bay (.238-13-40)

Rocco Baldelli’s return is one of the more inspiring stories of the ‘08 season and he played well enough upon his return to earn a spot on the postseason roster.  Gabe Gross was an early acquisition and had some pop but didn’t hit for average.  Combined, neither is to the level of J.D. Drew, the American League All-Star hero and hit the big two-run bomb in Game 2 off of Francisco Rodriguez in the ninth to put the Red Sox past the Angels.  Drew is still working through a back injury that kept him out for most of September but was healthy enough to start three of the four games in the LDS.

EDGE: Red Sox

DESIGNATED HITTER
David Ortiz, Boston (.264-23-89)
Cliff Floyd, Tampa Bay (.268-11-39)

Cliff Floyd plays the leadership role on the Rays’ squad but is no match for “Big Papi” who out-homered and out-produced Floyd.  He also owns a .319 October average and looks fully recovered from a wrist and knee injury that limited him to 109 games.

EDGE: Red Sox

STARTING PITCHING
Boston (71-47, 4.02 ERA)
Tampa Bay (66-48, 3.95 ERA)

The reduction of the rotation from five to four swings the advantage in favor of the Sox.  Lester, Matsuzaka and Beckett are a formidable trio and the Ray’s rotation is young and inexperienced.  The Red Sox have the postseason experience up and down the rotation but the Rays have avoided the “nerves” of a regular season playoff race and their first League Division Series so to expect the “nerves” to creep in now is not based on any past signs the rotation has shown.  Plus, expansion teams in the LCS have fared well in their first series and either won or taken their opponent the distance in eight of nine of those LCS.

EDGE: Red Sox

RELIEF PITCHING
Boston (24-20, 4.00 ERA, 47 Saves)
Tampa Bay (31-17, 3.55 ERA, 52 Saves)

If the comparison was just the closer role, the Red Sox have a huge edge.  Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon converted 41-of-46 save opportunities and has never allowed a postseason run.  The Rays look to Dan Wheeler with Troy Percival unavailable and he’s been inconsistent in the closer role.  The rest of the ‘pen favors the Rays with right-handed relievers Grant Balfour, Chad Bradford and Edwin Jackson — normally their fifth starter — and lefties J.P. Howell, Trever Miller and David Price.  The Red Sox bullpen pitched well but their 24-20 record and ERA at 4.00 — which includes Papelbon’s 2.34 ERA — is no guarantee.

EDGE: Rays

BENCH

Unlike the National League, the bench is not as big of a factor.  Both teams sacrificed depth to add an 11th arm to the pitching staff but leaves the Red Sox a little thin in the infield.  Sean Casey is a key left-handed bat off the bench for Boston and Coco Crisp and Alex Cora — when he’s not playing third — provide speed off the bench.  Eric Hinske put up 20 homers in 381 at-bats and Willy Aybar is a good utility man for the Rays.

EDGE: Red Sox

COACHING

The Rays’ Joe Maddon stirs the Kool-Aid in Tampa Bay and delivered an endless stream of positive messages to the team that have transformed the franchise and catapulted them to their first postseason appearance.  Before arriving in Boston, Terry Francona spent four losing seasons in Philadelphia but has since vindicated his reputation with World Series rings for the Red Sox in ‘04 and ‘07.  There’s not a player on the Rays’ roster with a .300 average, 100-plus runs scored or 15 wins yet the Rays managed to win 97 games.  That has to say something about Maddon’s managerial job this year.

EDGE: Rays

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RAYS’ THREE KEYS

• Manufactured Runs

Speed, strong fundamentals and timely hitting got the Rays this far.  Even without a .300 average hitter, the Rays managed 45 comeback wins including 11 walk-off wins, tied with the Athletics for the most walk-off wins in the American League.  They also led the AL in steals and finished second in walks.  The Rays went 29-18 in one-run games and were known for their ability to get the most out of their offense.

• Have Wheeler Step Up

Without Troy Percival and with the number of close games the Rays play, expect Wheeler to be a factor in the series.  Wheeler was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 13 saves during the regular season and picked up a save in the postseason but gave up a solo shot with a three-run cushion before finishing out the ninth in Game 1.  The Rays and Red Sox played a lot of close games during the regular season and only one of the Rays’ 10 wins was by more than three runs. 

• Play Beyond Their Experience

The Rays are the Cinderella of this year’s postseason.  Most expected them to be improved in ‘08 but that meant a climb out of the cellar in the American League East.  Instead, the Rays went from the worst record in baseball to the franchise’s first postseason berth.  Maddon’s positivity has this team playing championship-caliber baseball and they showed a lot of heart throughout the year especially in their season series with the Red Sox.  The Rays are an average of three years younger than their opponents and have a roster full of players who are getting a taste of their first LCS.  Only Dan Wheeler, Chad Bradford, Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske have been this far before but the rest better not play like they have.

RED SOX’ THREE KEYS

• Safely Get From Starter to Papelbon

Six of their 10 losses to the Rays this season were courtesy of the bullpen.  At this point, counting on Papelbon is a safe bet but the rest of the bullpen is not so automatic.  The ‘pen blew Game 3 and nearly blew Game 2 and 4 in the Angels’ series but they escaped with only one loss.  Another similar performance would spell disaster against the Rays who are one of the better late inning teams in baseball.

• Get a Quality Start from Beckett or Wakefield

Even if Jon Lester is automatic, it’s no guarantee that Daisuke Matsuzaka can win two.  That means Josh Beckett or Tim Wakefield needs to step up.  It’s likely Beckett takes the hill in Game 2 after the bullpen worked a little bit on Friday.  Another short outing by the usually shut down postseason pitcher might expose the bullpen to unnecessary work.  As for Wakefield, it’s possible that he gets the ball with the Red Sox down 2-1 and the team was only .500 when the knuckleballer started.  Beckett is the one that is expected to produce a gem but if he falters, the weight falls on to Wakefield who hasn’t won a postseason game since ‘04.

• Make the Rays’ Starters Work

The Rays’ bullpen is a plus but even the best bullpen can struggle when forced to carry the load.  Rays’ starters averaged exactly six innings per game but were prone to the short outing.  The Red Sox led the AL in walks and only Jason Varitek and Kevin Youkilis struck out more than 100 times.  Anything to diminish the effectiveness of the winningest bullpen in the American League is going to help the Red Sox advance back to the World Series to defend their title.

THE PICK

Like the National League series, this one should be a hard fought battle.  There’s no surprises here as both teams know each other well but there are question marks in the Red Sox rotation — something unusual for this team built for the playoffs.  The bullpen, not just the closers, will be a factor in this one as it was in the Red Sox-Angels series.  The Rays’ bullpen is a step above the Angels’ bullpen and a step above the Red Sox bullpen also.  There’s something intangible about this Rays team that is immeasurable by any statistic.  Add in that expansion teams added after ‘69 in their first LCS have won the series or gone the distance eight out of nine times and this series is destined for seven.  In the seventh game, it’s difficult to bet against a good home team and the Rays are exactly that.  RAYS IN SEVEN.

Cole Hamels was inches away from trailing 2-0 in the first after Manny Ramirez made him pay for a mistake pitch but escaped the first inning with a 1-0 lead.  Ramirez drove it to the only spot in Citizens Bank Park where the drive was a double instead of a home run and put the Dodgers up 1-0 but the Phillies finally figured out Derek Lowe in the sixth and a three-run sixth took down the Dodgers in Game 1, 3-2.

Both Hamels and Lowe were effective through the first five innings but in the sixth, both the Dodgers’ defense and Lowe’s sinker failed in him and after a Chase Utley two-run homer and a Pat Burrell solo shot, the Phillies turned the lead back over to Hamels and the bullpen.

Hamels mowed down the Dodgers in the seventh.  Ryan Madson pitched a solid eighth including retiring Ramirez on a liner to third and Brad Lidge pitched a one, two, three ninth to close out his 44th save in 44 tries in 2008 and third save of the postseason.

The Phillies showed they were not going to avoid Ramirez and he made them pay in the first.  Ramirez popped out in the third and got a two-out single in the fifth but the big at-bat came against Madson in the eighth.  Manager Charlie Manuel came out of the dugout with no one on and one out to discuss strategy with Madson in a role usually reserved for pitching coach Rich Dubee.  Manuel’s words of wisdom worked and Madson retired Ramirez on one pitch.

After the game, a reporter asked Manuel if fans should expect the Phillies to continue to challenge Ramirez the way they did in Game 1.  “Not really,” said Manuel quickly with a laugh, “Really, he’s very dangerous.”  No surprise Manuel holds the Dodgers’ late season catalyst in high regard — he compared his former player to a son in a press conference earlier in the week.

The Phillies and Dodgers resume their series on Friday at 4:35 PM at Citizens Bank Park with the Phillies looking to guarantee a return to Philadelphia next Friday for Game 6 with a win. 

From Preview

PHILLIES’ THREE KEYS

• Production from Utley and Howard

It was Utley who delivered a staggering blow to Lowe with a two-run game-tying homer in the sixth that set up the knock out blow by Burrell who took Lowe deep and put the Dodgers down and Lowe out.  Utley was 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBI and a run scored.  Howard failed to show in Game 1 with an 0-for-4 performance but has two more shots at right-handers in Game 2 and 3.

• DEFENSE!

L.A.’s Rafael Furcal made a costly throwing error in the sixth that led to an unearned run and Jimmy Rollins made a huge diving double play on a Matt Kemp grounder in the sixth.  The Phillies’ defense was solid — not spectacular — but the Dodgers’ ”D” cost them a run and in a one-run game, that is big.  Recognition needs to go the way of Blake DeWitt who played an impressive second base.

• Continue Bullpen Dominance

Madson, the “Bridge to Lidge”, pitched a scoreless eighth and those waiting for Lidge to implode are still left to wait after a 13-pitch ninth clinched Game 1.

DODGERS’ THREE KEYS

• Manny, Manny, Manny!

Ramirez went 2-for-4 with an RBI double but only batted once with runners in scoring position.  The Phillies also retired him in the eighth when he was one swing away from tying the game. 

• Youth Movement

Tough to knock the young Dodgers in the lineup.  The five 26-and-under players went 5-for-17 (.294), scored twice and DeWitt delivered an important sacrifice fly in the fourth to put them up 2-0 at the time. 

• Continue to Make the Right Decisions

Torre quickly went to the bullpen after Lowe gave up two homers in the sixth and kept the game within one run.  It also looks unlikely that Greg Maddux will pitch in Game 4 after being used in relief.  Lowe threw 90 pitches which still leaves the door open for him to return on short rest in Game 4 which then makes him available to pitch in Game 7 in necessary.  Before the game, the Dodgers finalized their roster by shutting down Takashi Saito which all but guarantees the team uses Jonathan Broxton as their closer for the NLCS.

STAR OF THE GAME

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Manuel referred to Hamels as “revved up” in the first inning but Hamels escaped trouble with minimal damage and went seven strong innings allowing just two runs on six hits, two walks and eight strikeouts.  It is the third time this year that Hamels went seven innings and allowed two runs against the Dodgers.