Here it is: October in the American League and two East Division powerhouses are playing for the right to go to the World Series.  There’s a little bad blood, some smack talk and a defending World Series champion involved.  If you just woke up from a coma, you’re surprised to see the Tampa Bay Rays and not the New York Yankees facing off with the Boston Red Sox for a chance to bring the World Series title back to the A.L. East for the seventh time in 13 years.

To get to this point, the Red Sox bounced the AL’s best regular season team, the Los Angeles Angels, out in four games and the Rays continued to disprove the naysayers with a decisive four-game victory in their ALDS with the Chicago White Sox.  Now, the Red Sox and Rays renew a rivalry ignited during the season by a tight division race in the East, a bench-clearing brawl and some banter back and forth between the two teams.

The Red Sox have not lost a postseason series since being swept in 2005 by the White Sox and own two of the last four World Championships.  The Rays have defied everyone’s expectations throughout the season and took advantage of a tired White Sox club who had to win three elimination games to make it to the postseason. 

Head to head, the Rays took the regular season series for only the second time in their franchise’s history winning 10 out of 18.  Their 10 wins included six one-run wins and two extra-inning walk-off wins.  Coincidentally, both walk-off wins came off of Boston’s Mike Timlin who was added to the Red Sox’ ALCS roster.  Both teams played excellent at home.  The Rays owned the best home record in the Majors with 57 wins followed by the Red Sox who won 56 at Fenway.  Neither team was able to post a winning record on the road which makes home field advantage more likely to be a factor in this series than any other.

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

GAME ONE (Friday, October 10, 8:37 PM)
BOSTON - Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90 ERA) at TAMPA BAY - James Shields (14-8, 3.56 ERA)

The three-man rotation in the ALDS worked out perfectly for the playoff-built Red Sox but it also forces the team to use Dice-K in Game 1.  The Red Sox were 1-2 when Matsuzaka started against the Rays this year and he did pitched five innings in all three starts.  The extra rest benefits the Sox bullpen who typically work longer than normal during Dice-K’s starts.  He gave up three runs in five innings in Game 2 of the ALDS in a no decision and has only made it through seven innings in nine of his 30 regular and postseason starts.  A major plus for Matsuzaka is his ability to pitch on the road — he was 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 13 road starts in ‘08 — and was 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts at Tropicana Field.  For Tampa Bay, James Shields takes the hill for Game 1.  Against Boston, Shields was shut down in Tampa Bay but was bombed in two starts at Fenway.  Overall, Shields was a much better pitcher at Tropicana Field where he went 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 16 starts.  Shields also kept the White Sox contained in Game 1 and earned the Rays’ first postseason victory in franchise history.

EDGE: Rays

GAME TWO (Saturday, October 11, 8:07 PM)
BOSTON - Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03 ERA) at TAMPA BAY - Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49 ERA)

Is Josh Beckett healthy enough to regain his amazing postseason form?  He wasn’t in the only loss by the Red Sox in the ALDS and hasn’t won since September 5.  The Rays are very familiar with Beckett — they faced the veteran five times in ‘08.  Beckett went 2-1 with an impressive 2.06 ERA but the Rays won the two no decisions thanks to some dead wood in the Red Sox lineup.  Kazmir made four starts against the Red Sox and went 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in those starts.  He is a star at Tropicana Field where he went 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA but one of those two losses came against the Red Sox.  If Beckett is still not 100%, there is a strong chance that both pitchers get the bullpens involved as Kazmir has not pitched past the sixth inning since July 21.

EDGE: Red Sox

GAME THREE (Monday, October 13, 4:37 PM)
TAMPA BAY - Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70 ERA) at BOSTON - Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA)

Matt Garza took the only loss in the ALDS, struggled in September — 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA in five starts — and fared poorly on the road.  He also was hit or miss against the Red Sox with a 1-1 record and 4.50 ERA in four starts.  To make it even tougher on the Rays, they must face Jon Lester who has not allowed a run in three postseason starts including two in the ALDS.  He’s also given the Rays fits in ‘08 with a 3-0 record and 0.90 ERA in three starts.  While Game 1 and 2’s pitching match-ups on paper look like they could go either way, this one is heavily in favor of Lester and the Red Sox.  Was it mentioned that this is the first game of the series at Fenway?

EDGE: Red Sox

GAME FOUR (Tuesday, October 14, 8:07 PM)
TAMPA BAY - Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38 ERA) at BOSTON - Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13 ERA)

Despite struggling through part of August and September, Andy Sonnanstine delivered a solid outing in the Game 4 clincher over the White Sox.  The Rays hope that win has the Rays’ righty back on track especially since Sonnanstine pitched 13 innings without allowing an earned run in two no decisions against Boston.  Wakefield has not pitched since September 28 and went 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay in ‘08.  The 42-year-old Florida native is 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA in his last three postseason starts but has a ton of postseason experience.  Beyond Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka, the Red Sox have a losing record when anyone else is the starter, a weakness left unexposed in the ALDS thanks to a strategic mistake to take the schedule with the extra day off.

EDGE: Rays

GAME FIVE* (Thursday, October 16, 8:07 PM)
TAMPA BAY - To Be Determined at BOSTON - To Be Determined

GAME SIX* (Saturday, October 18, 4:37 PM)
BOSTON - To Be Determined at TAMPA BAY - To Be Determined

GAME SEVEN* (Sunday, October 19, 8:07 PM)
BOSTON - To Be Determined at TAMPA BAY - To Be Determined

* If Necessary

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POSITION PLAYERS

CATCHER
Jason Varitek, Boston (.220 BA-13 HR-43 RBI)
Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay (.295 BA-7 HR-54 RBI)

Sure, Jason Varitek is a leader on the field and calls a solid game behind the plate but that gives their starting pitchers an advantage and boosts the rest of the team.  The 36-year-old veteran had his worst Major League season with a .672 OPS and a dip in power and production.  His ALDS performance mirrored the regular season with Varitek hitting 3-for-14 (.214) without an RBI.  Dioner Navarro hits for average and has played great defense for the Rays and delivered in his first postseason series with a .400 average, three doubles and three RBI. 

EDGE: Rays

FIRST BASEMAN
Kevin Youkilis, Boston (.312-29-115)/Mark Kotsay, Boston (.276-6-49)
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay (.247-31-102)

If this were just Kevin Youkilis vs. Carlos Pena, the edge is easily on the Red Sox side.  However, with Mike Lowell out for the series, Youkilis will split time at first and third.  Mark Kotsay was a nice addition to the team when injuries rocked Boston’s outfield but a big drop-off from “Youk”.  Carlos Pena played especially well against Boston.  He hit .314 with four homers and 12 RBI in 16 games.  Pena also returned to form in the second half of the season and led the team in home runs and RBI. 

EDGE: Red Sox (Rays Get Edge When Youkilis Plays Third)

SECOND BASEMAN
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.326-17-83)
Akinori Iwamura, Tampa Bay (.274-6-48)

Dustin Pedroia is a serious MVP candidate in the American League but the Rays’ move of Akinori Iwamura from third to second was a huge boost to the club’s infield defense.  Like many of his teammates, Iwamura had an awesome LDS with a .389 average, a double, triple, home run, four RBI and three runs scored.  Pedroia was invisible in the LDS where he hit 1-for-17.  Last year, Pedroia also struggled against the Angels in the LDS and heated up in the LCS and after his ‘08 performance, it’s hard to expect him to continue to slump.

EDGE: Red Sox

THIRD BASEMAN
Alex Cora, Boston (.270-9-16)/Kevin Youkilis, Boston (.312-29-115)
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (.272-27-85)

Evan Longoria is a perfect example of why the Rays are where they are.  Longoria is a rookie but doesn’t play like one.  He hit two home runs in his first two postseason at-bats and sparked the Rays past the White Sox in Game 1 to continue the success of his possible Rookie of the Year season.  The absence of Lowell forces the Red Sox to weaken their lineup with use of Alex Cora at third or Kotsay at first.  Either at first or third, the Red Sox are going to feel it.  For the purposes of this breakdown, the Red Sox get dinged here.

EDGE: Rays 

SHORT STOP
Jed Lowrie, Boston (.259-2-46)
Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.286-1-37)

His numbers are not “Ruthian” or even “Jeterish” but many call the Rays’ Jason Bartlett their team MVP.  Bartlett is in his first year with the Rays after four seasons with the Twins and has been a spark for the team.  Boston’s Jed Lowrie only started 45 games at short during the season but has been their guy at short during the playoffs.  He also is credited with the walk-off single that advanced the Red Sox to the LCS.

EDGE: Rays

LEFT FIELD
Jason Bay, Boston (.286-31-101)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.273-8-54)

Manny who?  The Red Sox-Ramirez trade deadline debacle landed Boston a blossoming superstar in Jay Bay.  His regular season numbers were strong with the Red Sox but downright fantastic in the LDS.  He homered in Game 1 and Game 2 and scored the winning run in Game 4.  Bay hit .412 with two homers and five RBI in the series and had the best numbers of any player in the first round of the postseason with the exception of, well, Manny Ramirez.  Even though the Red Sox have the advantage in left, the return of Carl Crawford from injury was big.  The Rays manufacture a lot of runs and Crawford’s speed on the base-paths should help with that if he can get on.  He’s also a Gold Glove candidate in left but might not get the accolade since he possesses a below-average arm.

EDGE: Red Sox

CENTER FIELD
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.280-9-47)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.273-9-67)

Both Jacoby Ellsbury and B.J. Upton possess impressive speed on the basepaths.  On defense, Upton has the arm and Ellsbury has the range.  Neither is a Gold Glover but they aren’t liabilities either.  Ellsbury was a slightly better hitter at the plate and more effective on the base-paths and Upton struck out 134 times compared to Ellsbury’s 80.  Upton turned on the power in Game 3 and 4 of the LDS with a home run in Game 3 and two in Game 4.  Ellsbury was no slouch in their LDS with the Angels with three doubles and six RBI. 

EDGE: Red Sox

RIGHT FIELD
J.D. Drew, Boston (.280-19-64)
Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay (.263-4-13)/Gabe Gross, Tampa Bay (.238-13-40)

Rocco Baldelli’s return is one of the more inspiring stories of the ‘08 season and he played well enough upon his return to earn a spot on the postseason roster.  Gabe Gross was an early acquisition and had some pop but didn’t hit for average.  Combined, neither is to the level of J.D. Drew, the American League All-Star hero and hit the big two-run bomb in Game 2 off of Francisco Rodriguez in the ninth to put the Red Sox past the Angels.  Drew is still working through a back injury that kept him out for most of September but was healthy enough to start three of the four games in the LDS.

EDGE: Red Sox

DESIGNATED HITTER
David Ortiz, Boston (.264-23-89)
Cliff Floyd, Tampa Bay (.268-11-39)

Cliff Floyd plays the leadership role on the Rays’ squad but is no match for “Big Papi” who out-homered and out-produced Floyd.  He also owns a .319 October average and looks fully recovered from a wrist and knee injury that limited him to 109 games.

EDGE: Red Sox

STARTING PITCHING
Boston (71-47, 4.02 ERA)
Tampa Bay (66-48, 3.95 ERA)

The reduction of the rotation from five to four swings the advantage in favor of the Sox.  Lester, Matsuzaka and Beckett are a formidable trio and the Ray’s rotation is young and inexperienced.  The Red Sox have the postseason experience up and down the rotation but the Rays have avoided the “nerves” of a regular season playoff race and their first League Division Series so to expect the “nerves” to creep in now is not based on any past signs the rotation has shown.  Plus, expansion teams in the LCS have fared well in their first series and either won or taken their opponent the distance in eight of nine of those LCS.

EDGE: Red Sox

RELIEF PITCHING
Boston (24-20, 4.00 ERA, 47 Saves)
Tampa Bay (31-17, 3.55 ERA, 52 Saves)

If the comparison was just the closer role, the Red Sox have a huge edge.  Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon converted 41-of-46 save opportunities and has never allowed a postseason run.  The Rays look to Dan Wheeler with Troy Percival unavailable and he’s been inconsistent in the closer role.  The rest of the ‘pen favors the Rays with right-handed relievers Grant Balfour, Chad Bradford and Edwin Jackson — normally their fifth starter — and lefties J.P. Howell, Trever Miller and David Price.  The Red Sox bullpen pitched well but their 24-20 record and ERA at 4.00 — which includes Papelbon’s 2.34 ERA — is no guarantee.

EDGE: Rays

BENCH

Unlike the National League, the bench is not as big of a factor.  Both teams sacrificed depth to add an 11th arm to the pitching staff but leaves the Red Sox a little thin in the infield.  Sean Casey is a key left-handed bat off the bench for Boston and Coco Crisp and Alex Cora — when he’s not playing third — provide speed off the bench.  Eric Hinske put up 20 homers in 381 at-bats and Willy Aybar is a good utility man for the Rays.

EDGE: Red Sox

COACHING

The Rays’ Joe Maddon stirs the Kool-Aid in Tampa Bay and delivered an endless stream of positive messages to the team that have transformed the franchise and catapulted them to their first postseason appearance.  Before arriving in Boston, Terry Francona spent four losing seasons in Philadelphia but has since vindicated his reputation with World Series rings for the Red Sox in ‘04 and ‘07.  There’s not a player on the Rays’ roster with a .300 average, 100-plus runs scored or 15 wins yet the Rays managed to win 97 games.  That has to say something about Maddon’s managerial job this year.

EDGE: Rays

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RAYS’ THREE KEYS

• Manufactured Runs

Speed, strong fundamentals and timely hitting got the Rays this far.  Even without a .300 average hitter, the Rays managed 45 comeback wins including 11 walk-off wins, tied with the Athletics for the most walk-off wins in the American League.  They also led the AL in steals and finished second in walks.  The Rays went 29-18 in one-run games and were known for their ability to get the most out of their offense.

• Have Wheeler Step Up

Without Troy Percival and with the number of close games the Rays play, expect Wheeler to be a factor in the series.  Wheeler was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA and 13 saves during the regular season and picked up a save in the postseason but gave up a solo shot with a three-run cushion before finishing out the ninth in Game 1.  The Rays and Red Sox played a lot of close games during the regular season and only one of the Rays’ 10 wins was by more than three runs. 

• Play Beyond Their Experience

The Rays are the Cinderella of this year’s postseason.  Most expected them to be improved in ‘08 but that meant a climb out of the cellar in the American League East.  Instead, the Rays went from the worst record in baseball to the franchise’s first postseason berth.  Maddon’s positivity has this team playing championship-caliber baseball and they showed a lot of heart throughout the year especially in their season series with the Red Sox.  The Rays are an average of three years younger than their opponents and have a roster full of players who are getting a taste of their first LCS.  Only Dan Wheeler, Chad Bradford, Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske have been this far before but the rest better not play like they have.

RED SOX’ THREE KEYS

• Safely Get From Starter to Papelbon

Six of their 10 losses to the Rays this season were courtesy of the bullpen.  At this point, counting on Papelbon is a safe bet but the rest of the bullpen is not so automatic.  The ‘pen blew Game 3 and nearly blew Game 2 and 4 in the Angels’ series but they escaped with only one loss.  Another similar performance would spell disaster against the Rays who are one of the better late inning teams in baseball.

• Get a Quality Start from Beckett or Wakefield

Even if Jon Lester is automatic, it’s no guarantee that Daisuke Matsuzaka can win two.  That means Josh Beckett or Tim Wakefield needs to step up.  It’s likely Beckett takes the hill in Game 2 after the bullpen worked a little bit on Friday.  Another short outing by the usually shut down postseason pitcher might expose the bullpen to unnecessary work.  As for Wakefield, it’s possible that he gets the ball with the Red Sox down 2-1 and the team was only .500 when the knuckleballer started.  Beckett is the one that is expected to produce a gem but if he falters, the weight falls on to Wakefield who hasn’t won a postseason game since ‘04.

• Make the Rays’ Starters Work

The Rays’ bullpen is a plus but even the best bullpen can struggle when forced to carry the load.  Rays’ starters averaged exactly six innings per game but were prone to the short outing.  The Red Sox led the AL in walks and only Jason Varitek and Kevin Youkilis struck out more than 100 times.  Anything to diminish the effectiveness of the winningest bullpen in the American League is going to help the Red Sox advance back to the World Series to defend their title.

THE PICK

Like the National League series, this one should be a hard fought battle.  There’s no surprises here as both teams know each other well but there are question marks in the Red Sox rotation — something unusual for this team built for the playoffs.  The bullpen, not just the closers, will be a factor in this one as it was in the Red Sox-Angels series.  The Rays’ bullpen is a step above the Angels’ bullpen and a step above the Red Sox bullpen also.  There’s something intangible about this Rays team that is immeasurable by any statistic.  Add in that expansion teams added after ‘69 in their first LCS have won the series or gone the distance eight out of nine times and this series is destined for seven.  In the seventh game, it’s difficult to bet against a good home team and the Rays are exactly that.  RAYS IN SEVEN.