After getting pummeled 9 to 1, the Boston Red Sox have decided some drastic changes were in order. JD Drew, owner of a .408 2008 OBP has been moved to the lead off role, a spot he hit in for only 8 games this season. Having Drew in the lead off spot, with Coco Crisp manning centerfield, all but eliminates the need for the Red Sox to play Jacoby Ellsbury.

I wonder, however, if the Red Sox would be better off trying David Ortiz at first base, while playing Ellsbury in left with Jason Bay DHing. While Ellsbury is incredibly cold, it is still tough to imagine Kotsay as the better hitter on a game to game basis. Even though Ortiz is yet to play a game at first base this season, Ellsbury would be a better fit in the outfield given Tim Wakefield’s fly ball tendencies.

Let’s see how this plan unfolds for the Red Sox in what many are calling a ‘do or die’ type of game-similar to 2007 when the Indians took a 3-1 lead at home!

As the playoffs wind down into the World Series–we may have our first WS team as soon as tomorrow, and both as soon as Thursday–let’s take a look at who’s been helping them get there, and who hasn’t.

I’m restricting myself to the four active teams, to get a sense of who might step up–and who needs to. Who’s looking back anyway? That’s for the end of the season, and the games ain’t over yet.

We’ll start with hitters and move to pitchers . . .

Who’s Hot? 

It’s a well-worn saw that playoff teams win with contributions from secondary players, since it’s easy to pitch around one or two guys in the lineup, but the successful teams get production from guys who don’t normally produce.

Manny, being Manny, has run counter to expectations, of course. He leads all active playoff hitters with a neat .500 BA, to go with a whopping .656/1.000 OBP/SLG. The Phillies showed him the ultimate compliment last night, walking him to put the tying run on. In the first inning.He’s not long from receiving the Bonds Treatment, getting a free pass with the bases juiced, just so he doesn’t bust out the grand salami. He still leads all players with 10 BBs anyway, and trails only one guy in RBIs . . .

Shane Victorino leads playoff producers with 11 RBI, helped along by his grand slam off of CC Sabathia. Though the Flyin’ Hawaiian is no slouch in the regular season, he still only reached a paltry 14 HRs before the playoffs started, to go with a meager .447 SLG. His playoff performance thus far has added nearly 200 points to that slugging, and those 11 RBIs are nearly a fifth of his 58 for the entire season.

Jason Bay hasn’t been Manny, but he’s been close, with a .429/.515/.827, tying Manny with 3 HRs and 9 RBI. But he can’t hold a HR candle to the two sluggers in Tampa Bay . . .

BJ Upton only smacked 9 HRs all year long–typical of the small-ball Rays, who only had three guys crack 20 HRs and one (Carlos Pena) break the 30 mark. Upton, however, has brought out his whuppin’ stick in the postseason, clubbing 5, more than half his season total, to lead all players. His peripherals aren’t as pretty–10 Ks against 2 BBs–but the Rays will take his .290/.324 BA/OBP when it comes with that beautiful .839 SLG, trailing only Bay and Manny among active playoff players.

Evan Longoria clubbed two homers in his first playoff game, becoming only the second player ever to go yard in his first two playoff at-bats (Gary Gaetti, nominee for The Ugliest Ballplayer Ever, also turned the trick for the Twins in 1987 against Detroit). But Longoria ran cold after that, going 1-16 in his next four games before rediscovering his stroke in the past two games, where he’s hit 4-9, including two more homers and 4 RBI in the Rays’ two wins.

And speaking of long hitless slides . . .

Who’s Not?

Jason Varitek’s not the Boston captain for his offensive prowess, though he can swing a mean bat now and again. The 2008 postseason is evidently neither “now” nor “again” for Tek, who’s 3-24 in the postseason, and is 0 for his last 10. His 5 Ks and 2 BBs, with 0 RBIs, leave him with an ugly .125/.195/.125 line, worst among active postseason players.

The bright side? In addition to that nice, round symmetrical batting line, Cap’n Varitek has scored all three times he’s reached base.

When he’s scored, it hasn’t been because of teammate David Ortiz. Big Papi and his gimpy wrist have only contributed one RBI to the Red Sox cause, with a measly double as his only extra-base hit. He’s only got four hits overall in 27 ABs, with his silver lining the 7 BBs he’s drawn, against 4 Ks. But .148/.324/.185 from their big-time clutch hitter is no recipe for a Boston victory.

Blake DeWitt and Ryan Howard carry the NL banners for futility. DeWitt, who has started all seven Dodger games, isn’t there for his offense, but he had a some good streaks during the season, like a .322/.379/.517 May, or a.282/.410/.462 September. DeWitt’s 4-22 puts him at the end of the Dodgers’ line of poor hitters, with 6 Ks against 1 BB. Those four hits have been timely, though, contributing 6 RBI to the Los Angeles offense, which is 4 more than Ryan Howard’s given to Philly.

Ryan is known for his offense, but also for his massive strikeout totals, and he doesn’t lead the playoffs in either category, although his 7 Ks (against 7 BBs) is good enough for fourth. Teammate Jayson Werth leads the field with 12 strikeouts, but he’s at least put up a .242/.242/.515 line to go with it, with 6 of his 8 hits going for extra bases.

Howard’s postseason line? .185/.353/.259. Definitely not hot.

Speaking of strikeouts, let’s move to the postseason pitchers . . .

Who’s Hot?

Hiroki Kuroda and Cole Hamels are tied for combined wins and ERA, and both have stepped up at huge times for their teams. Kuroda’s Game 3 victory against Chicago sealed the Cubbies’ fate, while his Victorino buzzback pitch was the highlight of his Game 3 victory against Philadelphia, one that brought his team back into the race.

His 1.46 ERA is second among starters, however, to Hamels, who has won both of Philadelphia’s Game 1’s, setting the pace for his other pitchers to follow. Shutting out the Brewers through eight innings showed the Phillies how to hold back a surging Milwaukee, and the two runs the Dodgers got against him weren’t enough to overcome the three runs Philly put up behind their ace. Hamels’ 17 Ks are second only to Jon Lester, whose 1-1, 1.83 ERA record is at least worthy of mention.

Certainly more important than Lester’s two brilliant starts (and one shelling) have been the middle relievers for the Rays and Phillies. Ryan Madson was strong all season, but saved his best stuff for the playoffs, where he’s appeared in six of Philadelphia’s 8 games, with 3 holds, 6 Ks and 1 BB and a very nice 1.13 ERA.

Right behind him is J.P. Howell, who had a breakout year for Tampa Bay, and was unscored upon in fifteen straight appearances between June 30 and August 5. Howell hasn’t been entirely untouchable in the postseason, but 1 ER in 7.2 IP is only one out behind Madson’s 8 IP, 1 ER performance, so he trails Madson only slightly with a 1.17 ERA. Howell also has 3 holds, but racked up 10 Ks against two free passes, and gave up just four hits, to Madson’s four.

The closers, as always, are the most important, and nobody’s been better than Jonathan Papelbon, who extended his record-setting string of innings without allowing a run when he appeared in last night’s loss, for a total of 21.2 IP. He’s only got 2 saves, but that reflects Boston’s win margin, not his own performance. When he takes the hill, the other team’s bats turn cold, and that’s why he’s vital if Boston will advance.

The postseason saves crown this postseason goes to the Comeback Kid of the closer set, Brad Lidge. As Albert Pujols goes under the knife, Lidge seems to be putting memories of Pujols to sleep, too. Lidge has saved all five of Philly’s victories, his only blemish the run he gave up in his very first appearance against Milwaukee, for a 1.42 ERA. Albert who?

Who’s Not?

Jamie Moyer had an amazing 2008 season, and his 16-7, 3.71 ERA is one of the reasons for Philadelphia’s presence in the postseason. 2008 was his first sub-4.00 ERA season since 2003, which is also the last time he won more than 15 games. But he hasn’t helped the Phillies lately, taking the collar for their only two losses. In his latest outing on Sunday, he couldn’t even get out of the second inning, and we wonder if we’ve seen the last of 45-year-old Moyer, either in the postseason or in the major leagues.

Paul Byrd’s mop-up duty last night against Tampa Bay–four runs in 3.1 IP, with two homers–puts his 10.80 ERA behind Moyer’s 13.50, a mark matched exactly by Mike Timlin’s 1 ER, .2 IP outing. Byrd didn’t lose the game, but he sure let it get out of reach.

Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers looked good in their 10-3 thumping of the Cubs in Game 2. But when he took the hill for Game 2 against the Phillies, he didn’t make it through three innings, coughing up 8 runs (7 earned) before he did. Three of those runs came courtesy of Brett Myers 3-3 performance, which earns the Phillie hurler . . .

Hot (and Not): Honorable Mention

Myers became the first pitcher ever to get 3 hits in an LCS game, and only the eighth ever to do so in postseason play. His 3-3 performance included 3 RBI and 2 runs. When combined with his 1-2 performance against Milwaukee, it means his postseason BA is .800. Not bad for a guy who was 3-58 on the regular season for that wonderfully magical 0.69 BA. But that was better than 2006, when he went 2-63, for a 0.32 BA. His career average.116/.162/.140, so kudos to Myers for overperforming.

Myers also has 2 wins, but that ugly 5.25 ERA to go with it dropped him out of the Hot Pitcher category. Nice to give him honors for something, since he’s been important to the Phillies’ success all year long.

Hamrahi Named PEV Chief Financial Officer…

Chicago, IL (October 10, 2008) – Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, owner of BaseballProspectus.com (BP), today announced the acquisition of BaseballDigestDaily.com from Sports Digest Daily, LLC. As a condition of the sale, Joe Hamrahi, founder and president of BDD, has agreed to become the Chief Financial Officer of PEV.

PEV’s decision to acquire Baseball Digest Daily further enhances the content offerings of Baseball Prospectus by adding some of the game’s best analysts as well as over 100 pages of baseball news and original content. In addition, BDD’s player tracker provides a platform for serious fans and fantasy baseball enthusiasts to easily monitor the progress of their teams, allowing users to manipulate and track the progress of an unlimited set of players over a customized period of time.

Hamrahi brings more than twenty years of finance and accounting experience to PEV. He is a licensed CPA in the state of New York and holds a BA in economics from Binghamton University and an MBA in accounting from Baruch College. Joe is a skilled businessman who is known and respected among major and minor league baseball executives alike.
 
“We are excited to add Baseball Digest Daily and Joe Hamrahi to the PEV family,” said Kevin Goldstein, PEV executive and senior writer for Baseball Prospectus. “We believe that BDD will help continue Baseball Prospectus’ reputation as the leader in baseball analysis. And positioning Joe as our CFO not only strengthens our front office, but provides us with the business leadership we need to grow the company.”

About Sports Digest Daily, LLC

Founded in 2004, Sports Digest Daily is a Delaware based LLC and original owner of Baseball Digest Daily, a New York-based press outlet and comprehensive online destination for major and minor league baseball news, features and statistical analysis.

About Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC

Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC is a Delaware based limited liability company that owns and operates Baseball Prospectus and Basketball Prospectus.

Baseball Prospectus produces the leading website for baseball analysis, with over 10,000 paid subscribers, and a New York Times bestselling annual book.  Their work is read by all 30 teams, and has been syndicated by ESPN and Sports Illustrated. 

PEV also owns a significant interest in 538 (www.fivethirtyeight.com), a political analysis website that generates over 700,000 unique visitors daily.

# # #

Baseball Prospectus and the Baseball Prospectus logo are trademarks of Prospectus Ventures Entertainment, LLC. All other names are trademarks and/or registered trademarks of their respective owners.

(I’ll have more details explaining the transaction and transition later on today - JH)

Let’s get this out of the way:  There’s nothing “Cinderella” about Tampa.

So stop calling the Rays a Cinderella team.

I have a pair of daughters under the age of nine, so I’m well versed in all things Cinderella and princesses in general.  The Cliff’s Notes version:  Cinderella was a girl in a miserable situation.  Bullied by her stepsisters, she had nothing to look forward to, nothing going for her at all.  But when her life was at it’s lowest point, a bunch of fairies and other magical stuff appeared and “poof!”  Things suddenly turned around.  She went to the ball, married the prince and lived happily ever after.

Cinderella implies that success is an accident; a fortunate confluence of events that lead someone to a place they least expected.  It works as a sports metaphor when we’re discussing the NCAA basketball tournament when a number six seeded team pulls a bunch of upsets and storms to the title.  (I’ll never pass an opportunity to mention my University of Kansas and Danny and the Miracles in ’88.)  That’s a “Cinderella” team because their run to the title was unexpected and with the gulf in talent levels, it really shouldn’t have happened.  But in a format like the NCAA tournament where it’s one game and you move on, upsets happen.

I’m not saying Tampa’s season was expected.  (Although I will say I had them picked to finish third behind Boston and New York.)  Sure, no one except the computer saw this coming.  But over the course of a baseball season, where teams play 162 games, there are no accidents in the final standings.  Sure, there can be some luck involved in wins (and losses as well) but winning 97 games over six months proves a team has talent.  Sometimes, you have to adjust your expectations.  So while all the national guys at FOX and TBS were spending their summer in the Bronx and at Wrigley Field, they missed a hell of a story.  Tampa beating Chicago in the first round wasn’t an upset.  And if they win two more games against the Red Sox to advance to the World Series, that won’t be an upset, either.

Hello!  Tampa spent 98 days in first place.  They took over the division lead in their first game after the All-Star break and never, ever dropped into second place the rest of the way.  That leads me into my second pet peeve:  When people say the Rays are “for real.”  Of course they’re for real.  Teams that win 97 games and beat the high rolling Yankees and Red Sox for the division title aren’t frauds.  Or look at it another way:  After winning so much through the first four months of the year, it would have been a huge disappointment if Tampa hadn’t made the playoffs.

Sometimes, the storylines shift and we have to adjust our expectations.

Calling the Rays a Cinderella team insults the effort Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker put into building this roster.  They had a surplus of outfielders and needed another quality arm in the rotation, so they traded Delmon Young for Matt Garza.  They had a problem with infield defense, so they had the Twins throw Jason Bartlett in that deal as well.  JP Howell wasn’t working as a starter, so they moved him to the bullpen where he’s flourished.  They took a chance on Carlos Pena and struck oil.  They picked up Cliff Floyd to add a “veteran” to the roster and found a willing mentor to the young players that populate the roster.

And the drafts!  Oh, the drafts!  Evan Longoria, BJ Upton and David Price mean this team is going to be back.  Manager Joe Maddon, with his quotes and motivational tools (9=8?  A little strange, but whatever gets ‘em fired up) is the perfect leader of this young bunch.

The Rays front office has done an outstanding job assembling this team. They have four quality starters, a great bullpen and a lineup that is as good as any in the game.  It may have come together faster than they thought in Tampa, but there is nothing accidental or “Cinderella” about it.

So cut it out.  Stop calling the Rays a “Cinderella” team.  Instead, call them good.  Damn good.

…The last home run ever hit in Yankee stadium will be sold at auction this weekend. This is after the man who got it, decided he needed the money more than the ball. Steve Harshman of Casper Wyoming is the owner of the ball and decided to sell it off to catch up on some debt and send his kids to college.

“We talked about it as a family and we said we can keep it locked up in a safe deposit box and when I die the kids can fight over it, or maybe it can go to a good collector with a massive Yankees collection, and we can take the money and do some good with it,” Steve Harshman, of Casper, said.

…The Detroit Tigers will begin their search for a pitching coach today. This according to the Detroit Free Press.

…Cleveland Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner will under go arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder today according to a report by CBS Sportsline. Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery in Birmingham Alabama.

…The Kansas City Royals have added former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons and former Royal Kevin Seitzer to their coaching staff. Gibbons will become Trey Hillmans bench coach while Seitzer a long time Royal will become the teams hitting coach.

…Former Chicago Cubs pitcher Kevin Foster has passed away at the age of 39. He died fighting cancer according to his brother in Oklahoma City.

…According to Baseball Reference Matt Stairs of the Philadelphia Phillies became the oldest player to hit a home run in the post season at the age of 40.  He passed up Johnny Mize who was 39 in 1952 when he hit a home run in the ‘52 World Series.

The Phillies thrived on the big inning and the long ball all season.  Tonight, the Phillies’ eighth featured the long ball and was the most important big inning of the season. 

The Phillies were down and almost out until they finally got to the Dodgers’ bullpen for the first time in the NLCS in the eighth.  First, Shane Victorino tied it with a two-run home run off of reliever Cory Wade.  Then, pinch hitter Matt Stairs devastated the home crowd with a two-run homer off of closer Jonathan Broxton.  More late game heroics, another comeback and the Philadelphia Phillies are now one game away from the World Series with a 7-5 victory in Game 4.

“This is the first game we’ve won [at Dodger Stadium],” said manager Charlie Manuel.  “And we’ve been talking all year how big games are.  This was the biggest game we’ve won so far.  But the next one is even bigger.  That’s kind of how we look at it.”

In a see-saw NLCS classic, both teams held and relinquished the lead numerous times throughout.  The Phillies struck first with two runs in the top of the first off of starter Derek Lowe, on short rest.  The Dodgers cut the lead in half in the bottom of the inning.

In the fifth, the Dodgers took the lead 3-2 behind a Manny Ramirez RBI single and a Russell Martin RBI ground out but Phillies’ starter Joe Blanton got out of trouble and avoided further damage after Blake DeWitt hit into a double play.

In the sixth, the Phillies tied the game on a wild pitch by Chan Ho Park but Dodgers’ right fielder Andre Ethier made a run-saving diving catch to rob pinch hitter So Taguchi of an RBI hit.  In the bottom of the inning, reliever Chad Durbin struggled for the Phillies and allowed a solo home run to Casey Blake, a double and a walk and was quickly removed.  A throwing error by Ryan Howard tacked on a fifth run for the Dodgers but then relievers Scott Eyre and Ryan Madson with the help of excellent fielding from Chase Utley to turn a line out from Martin into a double play with the bases loaded to end the inning with the Phillies only down 5-3.

In the eighth, manager Joe Torre started the inning with Hong-Chih Kuo but a Howard single chased Kuo to bring in Cory Wade.  Torre went with Wade instead of closer Jonathan Broxton and Victorino made him pay with a two-run shot to right to tie the game.  With two outs, Carlos Ruiz singled and Torre then brought in Broxton to face Stairs who sent a 3-1 fastball deep into the right-field pavilion to put the Phillies ahead.

Manuel used J.C. Romero to start the eighth but brought in closer Brad Lidge to face Ramirez in the eighth, a situation Lidge had not been asked by his manager all season.  Ramirez hammered a double then Lidge struck out Martin but the ball skipped away from Ruiz and the wild pitch put Martin on first on the strike out.  Lidge escaped when James Loney flew out to left.

Then, Lidge worked an easy one, two, three ninth to clinch his fifth consecutive postseason save and 46th consecutive save in 2008.

The Phillies send Cole Hamels for a possible series clincher in Game 5 on Wednesday.  the Dodgers’ hopes rely on the shoulders of Chad Billingsley who was shelled for the loss in Game 2.

———————–

PHILLIES’ THREE KEYS (From Series Preview)

• Production from Utley and Howard

Howard was 1-for-4 with an RBI and two runs scored.  A big throwing error by Howard in the bottom of the sixth almost unraveled the game for the Phillies.  But Utley was huge.  He hit 3-for-5 with an RBI double in the first inning.  He also ended the bottom of the sixth with a game-changing double play on a Russell Martin line out. 

• DEFENSE!

Howard’s error was costly and a poor throwing decision by Pat Burrell — and possible bad call at the plate — might have also cost them an extra run but the Phillies turned three double plays including Utley’s unassisted double play with the bases loaded in the sixth. 

• Continue Bullpen Dominance

Chad Durbin was a liability in the sixth but Scott Eyre, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge combined for four scoreless innings.  Madson picked up the win, Romero was credited with a hold and Lidge closed out his fifth save in five tries in this postseason. 

DODGERS’ THREE KEYS

• Manny, Manny, Manny!

Again, Manny was a game-changer.  Ramirez went 2-for-2, walked three times — twice intentionally — had an RBI and was on base in every inning the team scored a run.  Unfortunately, the team did not pick up Manny and left him on five times.

• Youth Movement

It was hit and miss for the youthful Dodgers.  Credit Andre Ethier with a solid game thanks to his huge defensive play, Blake DeWitt left six runners on base and Russell Martin went 0-for-5 and left eight runners on base although he was credited with an RBI on a ground out that scored a runner.  James Loney also had a good game with a 2-for-4 and one RBI performance but had a shot to be a hero against Lidge in the eighth and came up short.

• Continue to Make the Right Decisions

After the game, manager Joe Torre said he did not see a way for the team or him to do anything differently.  The Derek Lowe on short rest experiment had mediocre results.  Lowe only gave up two runs in five innings but Torre went to rookie Clayton Kershaw in the sixth after Lowe threw 74 pitches.  The bullpen was shaky and Torre’s decision to go with Cory Wade instead of Jonathan Broxton and then Broxton will have many second-guessing him on Tuesday morning.  But that’s what happens when the bullpen allows five runs.

STAR OF THE GAME

Matt Stairs, Philadelphia Phillies

When it comes to Matt Stairs, PH stands for PROFESSIONAL hitter.  Stairs worked a hitter’s count against the hard throwing but sometimes inaccurate Broxton who grooved a 3-1 fastball to Stairs that if you didn’t see land you might think it was still going.  After the game, Stairs called it the biggest pinch-hit home run of his career.  No doubt about it.