Baseball Digest Daily (www.baseballdigestdaily.com) is once again looking to add a few good writers to our staff.

We’re primarily searching for candidates who enjoy writing and have good analytical skills. The goal is to find baseball enthusiasts who are willing and able to contribute regularly to our blog and provide at least one featured article per month. Experience in writing and blogging is preferred but not necessary.

While the positions are non-paying, they do offer some perks. You often get the chance to attend professional baseball games as “working media,” interview players and executives, receive free review copies of books and media guides, and get even closer to the game we all love. You’ll also gain valuable experience writing for a growing press outlet that recently became a subsidiary of the highly respected Baseball Prospectus.

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Am I the only one that sees some major train wrecks in this offseason free agent market?

Granted, there is some serious talent out there that will make solid additions to most teams–yet if not done in an intelligent fashion will cause some major headaches for the teams signing them. Some difficulties will crop up in 2009; some will have a delayed fuse and blow up later.

One of the big problems that come with signing big ticket free agents is that in order to land them, a club has by necessity to do something stupid.

For example, If you’re looking for an ace pitcher, then you have to give them a lot of years knowing full well that there may be a season or two where you’ll be paying eight figures for a handful of ineffective starts. If you’re looking to add a prime talent that’s on the wrong side of 35 there is an excellent chance that the only way to get them to agree to terms is to be willing to throw serious cash at them in years when you know they’re going to absolutely blow chunks on the field assuming they’re even on the active roster.

Which brings us to exhibit A:

Manny Ramirez

Scott Boras is looking for a club that’s willing to cough up a long enough deal that will pay Ramirez far in excess to what he is likely to contribute at the end of the contract. To digress for a moment, Juan Pierre was lightning fast (and is still pretty darned quick). It’s no dispute–even at the time–that the contract the Dodgers gave him made about as much sense as getting Paris Hilton a chastity belt to preserve her virtue.

Regardless, it would be a stretch to say that a contact hitter that can bat .300 while cranking out 200 hits, 25 doubles and 12 triples while pilfering you 50-odd bases while catching anything in his zip code is a worthless player. The problem is that a lot of those hits, stolen bases and fly balls brought in are dependent largely on his main asset–his speed.

Once a half-step is lost, so are a lot of the hits, which drags down his batting average (upon which his OBP is largely dependent), stolen bases and defensive value. It illustrates why it’s a bad idea to invest a lot of money and years into a player where so much of his value resides in one ability–speed.

Ramirez is like that–the man can flat out mash. Like Pierre though, it’s his only talent at this point. While it’s an amazing talent, it doesn’t diminish the fact that he has negative defensive value and is an inept baserunner. We know what happens when Pierre’s legs slow down a bit but the same thing occurs when Ramirez’s arms do likewise.

There’s simply not a lot left once that happens–yes, he has on base ability but some of that is negated by his base running (at least he remembers it is counter-clockwise) and a team at some point must be willing to pay a lot of money for that skill and that skill only.

Ramirez’s best fit is on a team in “win now” mode but isn’t at the beginning of the success cycle. If I’m a GM I either try to get a lot of the money deferred or I heavily front-load the deal to better the chance of moving the contract when he has some offensive value left but my team is looking to re-tool. I absolutely do not put together a deal where I’m paying $17-22 million to a one-dimensional player that is around 40 years old.

A.J. Burnett

If a team is looking for the final puzzle piece for a run in 2009–stay away from A.J. Burnett. Let’s chart his innings the last few years:

2002: 204.1
2003: 23
2004: 120
2005: 209
2006: 135.2
2007: 165.2
2008: 221.1
2009: ?
2010: ?

We see that a 200 inning season means DL time for Burnett and if I’m a GM trying to take my shot in 2009 I’m leery of him. I have a suspicion based on absolutely nothing that A.J. will shut himself down if he’s feeling any discomfort in his right arm unless he’s pitching for a contract. I know that’s a terrible thing to think and believe me, I hope I am absolutely, positively wrong about this and that his last 200 inning seasons occurring in a potential walk year is simply coincidence.

It’s just that his arm maladies in 2006 and 2007 merely required rest and no surgical intervention and I cannot imagine that Burnett experienced absolutely zero arm pain in a season where he logged a career high in innings and pitches thrown yet somehow found the wherewithal to pitch through it whereas in 2006 and 2007 he needed significant time off to cope.

If my suspicions are wrong then definitely steer clear of A.J. if your goal is a 2009 post season berth since he will have down time next year–if I’m right, then by all means take your shot and hope he is sufficiently motivated to stay in the rotation when he is experiencing a degree of pain that is typical to pitchers.

The safest bet for Burnett is a team on the rise that is looking at 2010-11 as the target date for competing for the post season and believe it or not, I’d include an opt out for him as a “safety valve” to ensure you’ll get a lot of innings in the year you hope to make your run. Had J.P. Ricciardi taken this approach he likely would’ve been more willing to upgrade the offense realizing that this would be Burnett’s best season in Canada.

If Burnett throws 200 innings next year feel free to call me out on this and I’ll quite happily take the grief since I really really want to be wrong. He’s too much fun to watch when he is on his game and hope he enjoys a terrific 2009 except when he’s facing Toronto. I am a baseball fan first and Blue Jay fan second and hate to see tremendous talent not performing well.

The New York Yankees

Obviously, the Bronx Bombers wish to open their new stadium with a bang; a few exciting new faces and hopefully a berth in the post season. Up to 2008, there have been two constants about the pinstripers for several years: they will sign free agents and they will reach the post season. However this has caused a two-pronged attack on their player development system in that the free agents cost draft picks and their high finishes negatively affects their draft position.

Due to this, the Yankees farm system is not in the best of shape. Most of their top talent is already on the roster. Now John Heyman reports that:

“…the Yankees’ top executives have decided to pursue many of the game’s premier free agents, chief among them starting pitchers CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe, and first baseman Mark Teixeira, among others, this winter. They will also will pursue Jake Peavy, the Padres’ Cy Young-winning starting pitcher who may be available via trade, and may take a look at top free-agent outfielder Manny Ramirez, as well, though the need for a corner outfielder isn’t as urgent as their need for pitching and a first baseman …The Yankees may also consider Brewers pitcher Ben Sheets as yet another free-agent alternative …”

They need to upgrade the rotation, middle relief, and their defense up the middle and (next year) key offensive parts: Jorge Posada (37), Derek Jeter (35), Alex Rodriguez (34), Hideki Matsui (35) and Johnny Damon (35) are getting long in the tooth. A team cannot plug that many holes in the free agent market and the only players that other teams would be willing to take in trade from the Yankees are the players they most need to hang on to–their young and still inexpensive talent.

If they wish to get draft picks for their free agents they have to risk them accepting salary arbitration.

Sooner or later the Yankees are going to have to bite the bullet and restock the farm system and the price they may pay to compete in 2009 could make the rebuilding effort take that much longer. They still have a lot of future salary obligations and are poised to take on a lot more.

New York’s revenues would decrease the turnaround time needed to do so since they could trade their expensive talent for prospects by picking up a good chunk of the contracts while doing so. However a spending spree and competitive 2009 will cost a lot of draft picks (and drafting position) and possibly paying a quarter billion annually for an 85-win team for a few years.

Bottom line–the check has come due in the Bronx.

Probably the biggest shift in attitude I’ve seen in the free agent era is the value of draft picks. The 1981 strike was based largely on the clubs’ desire to increase the compensation for free agents lost feeling that draft picks were wholly inadequate. With salaries being as high as they are, never before has inexpensive talent been such a hot commodity. Now teams come to agreements with players either to not offer salary arbitration to increase the player’s value in the free agent market since losing a draft pick or two is now a significant consideration in assessing a player’s value in the marketplace.

Conversely, we witnessed in the Manny-to-the-Dodgers trade a little quid-pro-quo: the Dodgers agreed to not pick up Ramirez’s options so he could be a free agent but in exchange, LA could offer him arbitration so as to get the draft picks. Teams used to be reluctant to trade for a rent-a-player (one in the last year of his contract) since they would have to give up young talent for a couple of months service. Now teams aren’t as leery of doing so since such a player is usually good for draft picks when he does move on–indeed teams dealing away a free agent-to-be factor in the draft picks lost when making a deal with another club.

Funny game baseball.

This week in synaptic flatulence…

Beeston is back, but will he help fix the Jays? (MSN Canada)

Why the Phillies beat the Dodgers (Hardball Times … and much help from Bill Baer)

Best Regards

John

…Agent Scott Boras won a $550,000 decision against Gary Sheffield when a arbitrator ruled that Boras should get paid for getting Sheffield out of a $11MM option that allowed Sheffield to become a free agent in 2004.

…The Detroit Tigers hired Rich Knapp as their pitching coach on Friday. Knapp recently spent the last 12 years as the minor league pitching coordinator for the Minnesota Twins organization.

…New York Yankees pitcher Chien-Ming Wang threw 25 pitches off the mound yesterday in his first throwing session since injuring his foot back in June. He had sprained and partially tore a tendon in his right foot running the bases in a interleague game versus Houston back in June and has been out since.

…The Texas Rangers have begun the interview process for their new pitching coach. Rick Peterson interviewed on Friday and Dave Wallace will interview on Monday. There have been no other names linked to the job. They hope to have their pitching coach hired by sometime next week.

…The Minnesota Twins begin their organizational meetings in Fort Myers Florida one of the things on the agenda will be an extension for manager Ron Gardenhire. He’s signed through 2009 currently, but some within the Twins would like to extend his contract.

Here’s what GM Bill Smith had to say about “Gardy”.

“I think that Gardy and the coaching staff did a marvelous job this year,” Smith said. “I think it’s probably their best body of work in the seven years that they have been together. We had so many new players, a lot of young players and we were missing a few key players. I think that combination can potentially cause problems. But they did a wonderful job making the adjustments … I have the highest respect for Gardy and the coaching staff.”

…Speaking of extensions, with the Cubs denying the Seattle Mariners access to GM Jim Hendry now maybe close to offering him an extension. Hendry could receive a three year extension by the time the Cubs are finished with their organizational meetings in Arizona.