Join Joe Hamrahi, Eric SanInoncencio, Bill Baer, Rob McQouwn, Michael Street, Brandon Heikoop (maybe!) and myself who will all plan to join the live blog tonight for Game 2 of the ‘08 World Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies.

The Live Blog kicks off roughly 45 minutes before first pitch at 7:45 PM.  Be there for all the insights from the team and expect commentary and additional facts and stats to enhance your viewing plus the team’s baseball expertise (although it’s doubtful anyone can hold a candle to Tim McCarver’s wittiness.). 

Click Here or on the logo to join the Live Blog. (Blog will appear in a pop-up window and start at 7:45 PM.

Also, here are tonight’s lineups:

According to a recent report on ESPN.com, Japans Olympic coach Senichi Hoshino has decided to refuse to stay on as the manager for the defending WBC Champions Team Japan. This now lessens Team Japan’s options for a skipper at the World Baseball Classic.

Here’s what Hoshino told the Japanese Media.

“Even if I am asked I will turn it down,” Hoshino told Thursday’s Japanese media. “I have informed [Japan’s baseball] commissioner of my decision.”

“I’ve already been engulfed in flames once — why should I have to drag someone’s chestnuts out of the fire again?” he said on his personal Web site. “I don’t want to put my family through that again.”

The “in flames” refers to the skewering he got by the Japanese Media after not winning a medal at the Olympic games in Beijing. Sadaharu Oh is out of the question as he turned down returning to the WBC for health reasons.

This has also prompted Seattle Mariners right fielder Ichiro to demand that Japanese officials “to stop dragging their feet”. Ichiro also said this will only add confusion and could put a damper on Team Japan successfully defending their World Baseball Classic Title.

Obviously Japan’s baseball commissioner Ryozo Kato wasn’t too happy to learn the news that Hoshino would turn down the job.

“It was a shame to hear that,” said Kato. “But we have no alternative other than to accept his decision.”

Right now there are no front runners for the job.

Why not turn to Bobby Valentine? He’s loved over in Japan has managed there for a few years and should be a viable candidate. Still Japan is supposed to announce their manager later this month.

Japan Olympic coach wont return for WBC [ESPN]

…Weather could play a role in the 2008 World Series. According to Mike Fitzpatrick of the Associated Press, there is a 70% chance of rain on Saturday in Philly. If Game 3 does get rained out it’ll be pushed back to Sunday and they would lose the scheduled off day between games 5 and 6 if they’re necessary. [Yahoo]

…Luis Alicea is the odd man out on the Boston Red Sox coaching staff. He was informed that he will not be returning to the BoSox as a member of the coaching staff in 2009. The rest of the coaching staff will return for manager Terry Francona. [Yahoo]

…The St. Pete police department ejected 41 and arrested 8 last night during Game 1 of the World Series. Two men were being held in temporary cells at the Trop last night as the game let out. One appeared to be a Rays fan, the other a Phillys fan. [The Heater]

…Once again it seems that Curt Schilling couldn’t keep his mouth shut, as he lashes out at Manny Ramirez on his blog 38 pitches. The only thing is, shortly after it was post it was taken down, but Evan of “Fire Brand Of the American League” was able to preserve some of the juicy tid bits of Schilling’s latest rambling. [Fire Brand]

Here’s a little bit from Schilling.

No, by saying PLAY I mean exactly that. The issue got to the point where everyone finally took him at his word, there was no choice. A guy refusing to get on a team plane, having to be literally coaxed on, by people with pride and people that love the game, because meeting the obligations of a 20 million dollar contract were not even close to enough to get him going???? If he did not get traded he was going to need “time off” to rest his injured knee, and it got to the point where he made it clear time off could mean the rest of the season.

…Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic is reporting that outfielder Luis Gonzalez would like to end his career with the Diamondbacks and that money isn’t a concern. [AZ Central]

Here’s Gonzo on the possibility of returning to the DBacks.

“This is an organization that has been good to me, and I’d love to finish my career here,” Gonzalez said.

…San Diego Padres rookie right hander Josh Geer has been diagnosed with a frayed ulner collateral ligament that could require Tommy John surgery which would shut him down for the entire 2009 season. [MLB]

Quoth Kevin Towers:

“It doesn’t look real good,” Towers said. “There’s some fraying there, though it might have already been there. We’re going to shut him down for two or three weeks before getting him on a mound to throw again. If it’s fine, he’ll go to Spring Training.

“If it’s not, then we might be looking at Tommy John [ligament-replacement surgery].”

…Current Cubs broadcaster and former Diamondbacks Manager Bob Brenly is most likely the final candidate to interview for the open managerial spot in Milwaukee according to General Manager Doug Melvin. They’ve already interviewed former A’s manager Ken Macha and former Mets manager Willie Randolph. [MLB]

“I have some other names of people I probably won’t interview, because they have resumes and they have backgrounds,” Melvin said. “I’m not going to interview them if I don’t think they fit the criteria of what we’re looking for.”

Join Joe Hamrahi, Eric SanInoncencio, Bill Baer, Rob McQouwn, Michael Street, Brandon Heikoop (maybe!) and myself who will all plan to join the live blog tonight for Game 2 of the ‘08 World Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies.

The Live Blog kicks off roughly 45 minutes before first pitch at 7:45 PM.  Be there for all the insights from the team and expect commentary and additional facts and stats to enhance your viewing plus the team’s baseball expertise (although it’s doubtful anyone can hold a candle to Tim McCarver’s wittiness.). 

Click Here or on the logo to join the Live Blog. (Blog will appear in a pop-up window and start at 7:45 PM.

Someone forgot to remind the Phillies they were rusty.  Chase Utley fired the first shot and Cole Hamels continued his claim to the title of baseball’s newest big game pitcher.  In the end, the Phillies went into Tropicana Field and snatched away home field advantage from the Cinderella Rays as the clock struck midnight in a 3-2 Game 1 win for Philadelphia.

Wednesday night’s opener belonged to Hamels who pitched seven strong innings and held the Rays to five hits and two runs and escaped trouble in the third and fifth.  No matter what happens on Thursday, home field advantage now belongs to the Phillies who, like their ace, are 4-0 at home in the postseason.  For the Phils and Hamels, it was business as usual in Game 1.

“I think going into the game, I guess, being somebody else’s home turf, the excitement they have with the crowd, you just have to, I guess, take a step back and know that you have a job to do, no matter how loud it gets,” said Hamels.  “And that’s what I was able to do.  I think I’ll still kind of play it slow and easy until the World Series is over, until I really kind of get excited about it, just because that’s kind of the mindset I’ve always had about playing.”

To help Hamels relax, the Phillies jumped out to a 2-0 lead before the he threw a pitch on a first inning home run by Utley.  Then, Hamels nullified Akinori Iwamura’s lead-off single when B.J. Upton grounded into an inning ending double play.

In the third, Hamels again found himself in a jam with Upton up with the bases loaded.  A good play by Pedro Feliz to turn another inning-ending double play kept the Phillies lead at 2-0.

“That’s huge,” said Hamels.  “With the lineup Tampa has, they’re devastating.  They can hit the long ball.  And that was something I was very aware of, especially with B.J..  And being able to get that ground ball out and getting the double play, I think was definitely the kind of momentum swing into our favor for the game, just because if they can load the bases with less than two outs and not be able to score, then you definitely have the upper hand.”

The Phillies manufactured a run in the fourth after the first two runners reached and Chris Coste moved the runners to second and third on a ground out and Carlos Ruiz got Shane Victorino home from third on a ground out to short to extend the lead to 3-0.

The Rays answered with a solo shot from Carl Crawford in the bottom of the inning to cut the lead to 3-1 and added another run in the fifth on an Iwamura RBI double that scored Jason Bartlett to make it a one-run game.

The game stayed 3-2 from the sixth on as Hamels pitched two shut down and innings and handed the game over to the Phillies bullpen combination of Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge who continued their late inning mastery.  Including the regular season, the Phillies are now 87-0 when they own the lead at the start of the ninth inning.

The Phillies head into Game 2 with a 1-0 lead over the Rays.  Brett Myers and James Shields square off at 8:29 PM at Tropicana Field.  Join the Baseball Digest Daily crew tomorrow night for the first ever BDD Live Blog.  More details to follow on the site later.

NOTES:  Philadelphia’s one-run win was the second consecutive World Series game decided by a run — Boston defeted St. Louis 4 to 3 to win Game 4 of the ‘07 World Series — and third one-run game in the last four played… The attendance of 40,783 at Tropicana Field, 311 more than the turnout for Game 7 of the ALCS…  Brad Lidge’s save was his sixth of the postseason and 12th postseason save of his career but first in the World Series.  Lidge has more saves than all but two players in postseason history.  Only Mariano Rivera (34) and Dennis Eckersley (15) have more… Akinori Iwamura became the 19th player in World Series history to get three hits in thier first three at-bats… Cole Hamels joined Josh Beckett (’07 Boston), Dave Stewart (’89 Oakland) and David Wells (’98 NY Yankees) to win four games in four starts.

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PHILLIES’ THREE KEYS (From Series Preview)

• The Manuel Manual

Charlie stuck to his game plan and went to Eric Bruntlett as a pinch runner in the seventh and removed Pat Burrell’s big bat from the lineup.  The move may have kept them from adding an insurance run in the ninth when Bruntlett failed to get a run home but the team won.  Manuel also resisted the urge of sticking with the hot hand of Hamels and instead turned it over to the surefire one-two punch of Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge.  That move was “Lights Out”!

• Hold Serve at Home

The Game 1 win sets it up for the Phillies to be in the driver’s seat when the World Series moves to Philadelphia.  After the game, Manuel spoke about how big home field advantage is and how important the two-run homer by Chase Utley.  “I can’t think of any way to quiet them down,” said Manuel.  “That’s how you do it.  If you want to take the wind out of the sails and you shut the cow bells up and get some home runs, that will do it.”  Then Manuel added with a laugh, “Except in Citizens Bank Park.  If you hit enough there they ring a bell.  They ring the Liberty Bell, so that would be good.”

• Myers and Moyer

Now, the mismatch of Myers vs. Shields and Moyer vs. Garza take center stage.  If the Phillies can steal one of the two mismatches — Shields has been hittable in the postseason and there’s some strange weather patterns set to stir up trouble for Saturday’s Game 3 — it keeps home field advantage in the Phillies hands.

RAYS’ THREE KEYS

• Minimize the Phillies “Big Innings”

There’s two sides to this one.  While the Rays did keep Philadelphia runners stranded, the two-run homer in the first inning was a staggering blow to the excitement in the crowd and gave the “rusty” Hamels a confidence boost to go out and continue his playoff dominance.

• Choose the Right Closer

With the way the Rays used their bullpen tonight, it sets it up for the young David Price to be the closer in a save situation should the opportunity present itself.

• Avoid Fielding Mistakes

Overall, the Rays get a pass here.  Carlos Pena’s error didn’t do any damage and B.J. Upton’s throw from very shallow center was a strike to nail Shane Victorino at home.  Did the Rays have a shot to double up the slow Pedro Feliz and Chris Coste on a grounder that moved the runners in the fourth?  Joe Buck and Tim McCarver seemed to think not but a look back shows that the door might have been open.  What happened next?  With one out, Carlos Ruiz grounded out and scored Victorino from third to give the Phillies their third run.  Maybe it wasn’t a mistake by Pena but a superior play from a guy like Pena isn’t too much to ask based on his track record.  Look at the play Ryan Howard made on a tough foul ball.  And he’s a guy you don’t expect much from.

I have read where Joe Madden has been called called a “hack” and an “idiot” for his use of a bullpen.  And I’m sure if NL home run and RBI leader Ryan Howard had taken Trever Miller deep in the 9th inning, he would have been 2nd-guessed even more.  But, even completely disregarding the personalities, “clutchiness”, and “hotness” of the players involved, it was a great move statistically.  I think that when you consider how good Brad Lidge has been, it’s an even better move, but I’ll leave that up to others to discuss.  Here’s some historical data showing why it’s such a great move:

The usual reluctance to give up a free baserunner is that - obviously -runners need to get on base to score, and scoring is bad for the pitching team’s chances to win games.  (duh!)  But not all wins are created equal, and this is especially clear in the 9th inning.  Here are the historical chances of the home team winning a game down by certain numbers of runs:

 Down 1 run: 18.8%

Down 2 runs: 7.5% (cost of 1st run allowed: 11.3%)

Down 3 runs: 3.5% (cost of 2 runs allowed: 15.3%)

Down 4 runs: 1.4% (cost of 3 runs allowed: 17.4%)

So, looking at the situation from Maddon’s perspective, the Rays lose 11.3% of a win if the Phillies score one run (18.8% minus 7.5%).  They lose 17.4% of a win if the Phils score 3 (18.8% minus 1.4%).  So, from the table above, the following can be asserted:

- The first run allowed is ~75% as costly as allowing 2 runs, so it’s 3 times as important to prevent the first run as to prevent the 2nd run.

 - The first run allowed is ~65% as costly as allowing 3 runs.

So, in Maddon’s situation, it can be clearly seen that looking at “run expectancies” is almost meaningless when the game has been shortened to 1 inning, and it’s a money play to risk allowing multiple runs to improve the chance to prevent the first one.  And a lefty against Howard - even with an extra baserunner “on the pond” - was clearly the best way to hold the Phils scoreless in the 9th, as actually happened.