by Bill Baer on Thursday, November 13, 2008 11:33 pm EST
When it comes to “overrated,” I don’t think anyone takes the cake more than Alexei Ramirez, for this season at least. The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA, whose website makes my eyes bleed) gave him 18 second-place votes for the American League Rookie of the Year award, after unanimously selecting Evan Longoria for first prize. Mike Aviles, who I argue is more deserving of the award than Longoria, got a measly two second-place votes and three third-place votes.
I’m not going to complain about the BBWAA’s voting methods (though I urge you to read Eric Seidman’s rant at FanGraphs), but I do want to examine the praise given to Ramirez, the second baseman for the Chicago White Sox.
Ramirez had a good season if you just look at traditional statistics like batting average, home runs, and RBI (.290, 21, 77). I’m a nerd, though, so I look at a lot of numbers and toss a lot of those traditional stats in the garbage (not before recycling, however).
Adjusting his .792 OPS for the league and home ballpark, his OPS+ only comes to 103. If you thought Ramirez had a good 2008, then you probably think Placido Polanco of the Detroit Tigers did as well, right? Right? He had a 102 OPS+.
Well, second base isn’t an offense-heavy position, so maybe we should factor that in to the analysis. AL 2B’s averaged a .749 OPS in 2008, so Ramirez only put up an OPS 43 points higher. That means that if he had hit 5 less singles, 2 less doubles, and 2 less home runs, he would have been a league-average second baseman offensively. 17 total bases separated him from literal mediocrity.
Granted, we can’t just take those hits away from him and say he’s bad — he did get those hits honestly. But the point is simply to show how very close he is to average, not superstardom as some would have you believe.
When we focus on his defense, then we’re still not doing Ramirez any favors. Among qualified American League second basemen, Ramirez finished ahead of only one player in Revised Zone Rating, found at The Hardball Times. That player is Akinori Iwamura, and he’s just barely below Ramirez (.787 to .790). Mark Ellis led the pack at .897.
The future doesn’t portend well for Ramirez, either. Among all Major League hitters with at least 300 plate appearances in 2008, Ramirez had the third-highest percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%, found at FanGraphs). Not surprisingly, Ramirez brings up the rear among AL 2B in pitches per plate appearance at 3.27. Iwamura led the way at 4.14.
Those metrics both match up with his low walk total — 15 unintentionals in 509 PA (FanGraphs lists his BB% at 3.6% which ties for the sixth-lowest walk rate in the Majors). The kid simply has an extremely poor idea of the strike zone. That can be fixed, of course, but not without some hard work and dedication.
Another disappointing metric is his line drive rate, 16.6% in 2008. A higher line drive percentage is positively correlated with success because line drives have a much higher probability of leading to hits (.718 BABIP) than ground and fly balls (.237 and .142 BABIP, respectively). And, obviously, hitting a line drive means that you did some or all of the following: picked up the ball out of the pitcher’s hand, read the rotation on the ball, and had good mechanics in putting a swing on the ball (among others). Using the +.120 method of finding an expected BABIP ( LD% divided by 100 plus .120), we find that he even slightly overshot his otherwise average 2008 BABIP of .296.
The one bright spot was his .185 isolated power, but even that might be gaudy. His fly balls went for home runs about 14% of the time, a bit higher than the normal 10%. And he played half his games in a stadium that had a 103 one-year batting park factor, and a 105 multi-year, according to Baseball Reference.
Alexei Ramirez is no Chase Utley. Heck, he’s barely a Placido Polanco — especially not if you factor in defense. He was not deserving of even a sixth-place vote for the American League Rookie of the Year, and unless he works on his plate discipline and defense, he’ll simply be mediocre or worse in his time in the Majors. Don’t forget that he’s not a young’un — he’s 27. He’s only got a couple seasons left to improve before he’s too old for teams to put up with his bad habits.
by Bill Baer on Thursday, November 13, 2008 8:24 pm EST
- The Chicago Cubs traded with the Florida Marlins to acquire closer Kevin Gregg. The Marlins got Jose Ceda in return — a 21-year-old right-hander who spent his 2008 between A Daytona and AA Tennessee.
- As a result of the Gregg trade, the Cubs will no longer try to keep Kerry Wood.
- The Chicago White Sox traded Nick Swisher to the New York Yankees for utilityman Wilson Betemit and Minor League pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. Marquez went from rookie ball to AA Trenton to AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre in 2008 in the Yankees’ system. Nunez went from A Potomac to AA Harrisburg and Trenton.
- Randy Johnson filed for free agency. Today was the last day players could file for free agency.
- Cleveland Indians left-hander Cliff Lee won the 2008 American League Cy Young award. He received 24 first-place votes; the only other pitcher to get first-place votes was Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays.
- The Silver Sluggers were handed out as well. Your winners:
American League
1B: Justin Morneau, Minnesota
2B: Dustin Pedroia, Boston
3B: Alex Rodriguez, New York
SS: Derek Jeter, New York
OF: Josh Hamilton, Texas; Carlos Quentin, Chicago; Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota
DH: Aubrey Huff, Baltimore
National League
1B: Albert Pujols, St. Louis
2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia
3B: David Wright, New York
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Florida
OF: Matt Holliday, Colorado; Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis; Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
C: Brian McCann, Atlanta
P: Carlos Zambrano, Chicago
- The Philadelphia Phillies hired former Baltimore Orioles manager Sam Perlozzo. As of yet, he has no official position, but he is at least going to be added to the payroll. It is believed he will take over as the third base coach after Steve Smith was fired by manager Charlie Manuel.
- Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire was rewarded with a contract extension that will run through the 2011 season.
