The life of a part-time fantasy baseball “expert” isn’t quite as glamorous as you might think. Rarely (if ever) am I stopped for my autograph at the mall, and the missus doesn’t think twice about politely but firmly reminding me that the trash needs to be taken out. There are some definite perks, though.

This Thursday, for example, I get to take a half-day from my real job to participate in a mock fantasy draft* for an upcoming 2009 fantasy baseball preview publication. The utility of a mock draft conducted in the middle of November can be debated, but there’s no disputing the fun inherent in any team-building exercise. (Side note: In my more grown-up moments, the thought of a fake draft for make-believe baseball forces me to question the direction my life has taken. These grown-up moments are thankfully few and far between.)

Fake draft or no, I’ve spent some time noodling on my first-round pick. I have drawn the 10th spot in a 12-team, traditional Roto league. Call me crazy, but I like drafting near the bottom — my untested theory is that it’s worth more to get the 10th and 15th picks than the 1st and 24th. Further research is needed.

My fellow fake owners are distinguished fantasy baseball minds, so no one will be taking Ryan Ludwick or Brad Lidge in the first round, much to my chagrin. The way I figure it, these names will be off the board:

Hanley Ramirez
Albert Pujols
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Rodriguez
Chase Utley
Lance Berkman
Matt Holliday
Ryan Braun

Someone might go starter (C.C. or Johan?), which would alter my strategy. If at all possible, I like to start with the best middle infielder available, but Hanley should go first overall and I don’t think the Chaser will last until the 10-spot. I have narrowed the candidates for the Four Horsemen and Friends’ first-round pick to:

Dustin Pedroia
Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Howard
Mark Teixeira
Grady Sizemore

Some might argue that Pedroia is the top 2B rather than Utley, but I’ll trade some batting average for Utley’s power (and keep in mind that Utley hit .292 despite a BABIP that was 19 points below his career mark). That speaks to my other requirement for a first-rounder: I want five-category impact. That knocks out Cabrera, Howard, and Teixeira, who don’t do much in the way of steals. (I suspect you hate chasing steals as much as I do, but such is Roto.)

Which leads me to Cleveland’s most eligible bachelor, Grady Sizemore. As an outfielder, he plays a deep position, but he’s entering the peak of his career and is as safe a bet for a 30-30 season as anyone not named Hanley. He only hit .268 last season, but like Utley, he put up an atypically low BABIP despite maintaining his line-drive percentage. Pedroia still will hit for a better average, but Sizemore will hit twice as many homers and steal twice as many bases.

Sounds like a first-rounder to me. Grady Sizemore, come on down!

*I’ll report back after the draft goes down. My main goal is not to end up with Skip Schumaker on my roster.

C.C. Sabathia is clearly the biggest and best free agent available on the market today. He is coveted by every major league team who can and cannot afford him and if the rumors are correct, the New York Yankees have tendered an offer in the ball park of 6 years, $140-150MM to 28 year old lefthander.  Although  landing Sabathia would seem to instantly increase the success a team would have in 2009, it end up being a monumental mistake that could cripple a team for years to come.  Granted, the amount of return a team gets from their investment could vary depending on Sabathia’s health over the length of the contract but one thing is for sure…Sabathia will not remain healthy from start to finish.

Of all pitchers since year 2000, Brandon Webb and C.C. Sabathia are the only ones to have 5 season of at least 180 innings before the age of 28.  Webb and Sabathia have averaged 226.3 and 222.0 innings pitched during their career and that is a tremendously high amount for any modern day pitcher to have without experiencing some sort of arm injury. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci has written extensively about something he called The Verducci Effect and he goes on to explain “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed. In other words, you might be able to finish that marathon for which you didn’t properly train, but your body will have hell to pay for it. I call it the Year After Effect.”  Verducci  explains the effects of an increased workload usually occur after an increase in 30 or more innings.  For the first time in Sabathia’s career Sabathia saw a significant increase in his innings pitched   Sabathia raised his total 48.1 innings from 192.2 innings in 2006 to 241.0 innings in 2007.  If you add in the 15.1 innings Sabathia threw during the post season, that brings the total to 256.1 innings and an increase of 63.2 innings.

We clearly saw Sabathia pay the price for all those extra innings during the beginning of the 2008 season.  With a similar workload in 2009, whoever lands Sabathia this off season can look for another shaky beginning and perhaps something that lands Sabathia on the DL for a significant amount of time.  The major question will be whether or not Sabathia and his 6 ft. 7 in. 290 pound body can rebound again without a serious injury.  Sabathia may have been lucky this year due to his size and his bodys ability to respond to an increased work load.  There aren’t many other pitchers like him.  Most of the pitchers who have experienced injuries or a decrease in effectiveness have been smaller in size compared to Sabathia but it could be that Sabathia’s thresh hold is just greater than his smaller counterparts.  No one knows how much the southpaw will be able to withstand but that limit has to have been pushed in the last two season.

Using PitchFX data I took a look at Sabathia and how he’s performed during different parts of the last two seasons during different points in his innings pitched.  Here is a look at Sabathia’s pitch selection, speed, and break during his start on 10/2/08 during the playoffs in a game against the Phillies.  We then look at the same data from a start on 4/11/08 against the Oakland Athletics when he was struggling at the beginning of the season.

As the chart shows, Sabathia’s average speed on his fastball and change up were higher and his max speed on the fastball was nearly 2 mph faster at the end of the season.  Sabathia’s slider and cutter was much more effective at the end of the season, breaking nearly 3 and 4 more inches respectively on the horizontal axis.  The vertical break of Sabathia’s change increased nearly 3 more inches while his fastball had additional movement as well.  As the season progressed Sabathia was able to make the necessary adjustments to allow him to return to form.  One change was the point in which he released the ball.  Looking at the same starts, Sabathia’s release point was lower in his starts towards the beginning of the season compared to where he was releasing the ball at the end.  The figures below show the differences.

In the 4/11 start against the A’s, Sabathia’s release point was around the 6ft mark on the vertical scale.   As the season progressed, Sabathia’s release point rose above the 6ft line and his control and effectiveness increased.

The lowering of an arm angle usually indicates that the pitcher has made an adjustment in the way they throw due to discomfort or fatigue caused by the motion of throwing a baseball.  As fatigue set in during the end of the 2007 season, Sabathia’s release point dropped and his effectiveness decreased.   The graph below shows Sabathia’s first start against the Boston Red Sox during the 2007 ALCS.

As you can see from the result of C.C.’s pitching line (4.1 IP, 7H, 8ER) and from his lowered release point, Sabathia was fatigued and making ineffective like he was when he began the 2008 season.

With Sabathia showing signs of the ware and tear of pitching 250+ innings two season’s in a row, one has to wonder when the hammer will drop and the bottom will fall out.  Verducci take’s a look back at the pitchers who saw a significant increase in innings during the 2007 season.  Ian Kennedy of the New York Yankees saw an increase of +61 innings pitched during the 2007 season and he was ineffective or hurt for most  of the 2008 season. Fausto Carmona saw an increase of 56.1 innings pitched in 2007 and saw his ERA jump from 3.06 in 2007 over 32 starts to 5.44 over just 22 starts.  Tom Gorzelanny saw an increase of 40.1 innings pitched and like Carmona saw the number of starts drop from 32 in 2007 to 21 in 2008 while his ERA rose from 3.88 to 6.66.  Dustin McGown who saw an increase of 38.2 innings pitched was lost for the season after having surgery to repair fraying in his labrum.  These examples are proof enough that Sabathia is due for some sort of significant injury or prolonged period of ineffectiveness.  Take what you want from my warning but Buyer Beware!