I’m sitting out the playoffs this year. The only team that interests me is the one that calls St. Petersburg home; maybe if the Rays reach the World Series, I’ll watch an inning or two in their honor.

Anyway, I’ve been thinking — always a dangerous thing — about Mark Reynolds and his 204 strikeouts this year. On the one hand, I’m glad to see that Bob Melvin kept penciling Reynolds into the lineup despite the latter’s season-long case of acute contact deficiency; on the other, where was the love for Russell Branyan all those years ago?

Reynolds hit .239/.320/.458 in 2008. That’s a 97 OPS+ and 5.1 RC/G, if you’re keeping score at home. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they’re also not the sort that would seem to justify so many strikeouts. When Ryan Howard strikes out 200 times in a season, at least he’s out there knocking 45-50 homers.

Reynolds hit 28. One more and he would have had as many as Jorge Cantu.

Yes, that Jorge Cantu.

So Reynolds must be something special with the glove then. Actually, he led MLB third basemen in errors by a substantial margin — his 34 were 11 more than the second worst, Cincinnati’s Edwin Encarnacion — and had the third lowest range factor among National League regulars.

Branyan, meanwhile, has never managed to land a starting gig. He’s 32 now and still productive (.250/.342/.583 in 152 PA for Milwaukee in 2008), but he’s broken 300 plate appearances just twice in his career, peaking at 435 in 2002. Branyan was 26 that year and hit .228/.320/.458, which translates to a 102 OPS+ and 5.2 RC/G.

Of course, Branyan mostly played the outfield in 2002, having been moved off the hot corner because of his defense. Then again, his career numbers at third base (.946 FPct, 2.24 RF in 329 G) are no worse than those of Reynolds (.922, 2.10 in 254 G).

I guess what I’m trying to say is that although I’m happy that Reynolds has been given the opportunity to play every day despite his whifftastic tendencies, I’m also bummed that Branyan never got a similar chance. That cat could have been something. And it would have been fun to watch…

Each of the writers here at Baseball Digest Daily was asked to put on their predictor caps and pick winners of this years Divisional Series round. Here’s how things shook out:

There are some interesting trends here, most notably, that each writer believes that the Rays will not only win their first playoff game as a franchise, but will also move onto the American League Championship Series. In a re-match of 2007, the writers picked the Angels to take care of the Red Sox this time around. Seven of nine writers believe the Phillies will have their way with the Brew Crew. And there is a toss-up between the Cubs and Dodgers in what should be a very exciting first round match up.

C. Brown:

Rays over the White Sox in three. Tampa wins the first two games at the Trop and then closes it out in Chicago. Chicago’s bats stay in hibernation against superior Tampa pitching.

Angels over the Red Sox in four. Lester shines in Game One as Lackey continues his late season slide.  But LAnaheim takes the next three.

Dodgers over the Cubs in four. The Cubs have the best lineup in the NL, but the Dodgers have the pitching to make this a good match up.

Phillies over the Brewers in three. Milwaukee’s stay in the post season is short as their bullpen blows leads in two of the three games.

T. Davis:

Angels over Sox in four. Boston is just too banged up to deal with the Angels.

Rays over ChiSox in three. The ChiSox used up their mojo to get to the playoffs and scoring a run isn’t going to help against the Rays.

Brewers over Phillies in four. This is a heart pick more than anything, the last time the Brewers were in the playoffs my Uncle was still the head trainer. It’s a family thing.

Dodgers over Cubs in five. This is really a tough call, and I’m really not sure.

B. Joseph:

Angels over Red Sox in four. Even if Boston wasn’t banged up, the Angels are just better this year.

Rays over White Sox in three. Rays are too good at home and White Sox pitchers have to be getting tired.

Cubs over Dodgers in five. Still not sure I’m sold on my pick here.

Phillies over Brewers in four. If Sabathia was pitching Game One, things would be different.

M. Street:

Los Angeles over Boston in five. Boston’s too dinged up to compete, but this might be the best match up in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay over Chicago in four. The Miracle Season continues! Too many games in too many days for the White Sox to put up a fight.

Chicago over LA in four. Cubs, too, continue their march to destiny. LA struggled with the NL West–how can they hope to compete against the NL’s best team?

Phillies over Brew Crew in five. If Sabathia could pitch every inning of every game, Milwaukee would win. But Philadelphia’s too deep and Milwaukee whiffs too much to make this a contest.

R. McQuown:

Rays over ChiSox. Sure, sometimes the teams which have to fight hard to get in carry that momentum into the playoffs. But not this year. This Rays team won the powerhouse AL East, and no 89-win team is going to knock them off.

Boston over Angels. Injuries are hard to assess, and Drew, Lowell, and Beckett have been big parts of the Red Sox success this year. Without them contributing significantly, Boston could end up adding 3 more wins to the Angels total of 100.

Cubs over the Dodgers. Not a very good match up for the Cubs, actually, and the injuries make this far from a slam-dunk. But they have a lot of talent, and Manny only fills one lineup slot.

Phils over Brewers. Potentially two starts by CC could make it interesting, but the Phils have a lot of weapons, and should win before it gets to Game 5. The Brewers do hit lefties well, though, so the Phils may have to rely on their bullpen advantage.

E. SanInocencio:

Angels over Red Sox in five. While playoff battles have ensued, people forget the team with the best record in all of baseball is Los Angeles. Mark Texieira explodes in his first playoff series, and Shields and KRod remain unhittable as Boston struggles out west.

Rays over Chicago in five. The Trop is thunderous, and Cinderella avoids midnight. Whoever comes into Tampa will be spent both emotionally and on the mound, and will run into a buzzsaw of youth and energy as the Rays continue to make history.

Cubs over Dodgers in four. Cubs pitching too strong, and Joe Torre falters in the first round for another year.

Phillies over Brewers in four. Milwaukee’s magical run was great TV, but put them in terrible shape against a rested Philly rotation. CC tries to remain unhuman, but Brad Lidge locks down the late innings for the Phils.

B. Baer:

Angels over Red Sox in four.

Rays over White Sox in three.

Phillies over Brewers in four.

Dodgers over Cubs in five.

B. Heikoop:

Rays over White Sox in five. I worry that the firey Scott Kazmir will be too emotional, not giving the Rays a key opening victory.

Angels over Red Sox in three. The Angels finally have enough fire power to take down the Sox.

Dodgers over Cubs in four. The Dodgers steal one at Wrigley and continue their hot play to win the series.

Brewers over Phillies in five. The Brewers only win when Sabathia and Gallardo pitch, lucky for them, CC can take the mound in games two and five with Gallardo being available out of the pen for games three and four.
There you have it, the writers picks for the Divisional Series. I hope everyone is as excited as we are for the up coming match ups.

I recently had a chance to speak with San Diego Padres rookie right-hander Dirk Hayhurst. When he’s not pitching, Hayhurst doubles as a columnist at Baseball America and his hometown newspaper, the Canton Repository. If you are looking for vanilla quotes and the same tired cliches, Hayhurst is not your guy:

Sports Celebrity is a gilded title. If you ask me, sports are grossly overvalued in our country. It’s a shame that doctors, teachers, scholars, and even parents aren’t held in higher esteem. I’ve pondered what this means, what living in a society where sports heroes are celebrated more than those who cure the sick or volunteer to serve the homeless says about us. It’s a fact of culture I can question all I want, but it’s not going to change. Our society worships entertainment.

For better or for worse, we athletes have a responsibility to live up to the highest standards. We are watched and mimicked by millions. We must use the platform for a positive impact. If that starts with someone like me, some career minor leaguer who’s popped up to the bright lights for who knows how long, admitting that he’s just some regular Joe underneath his big-league costume, then so be it.

Read the entire interview over at Ducksnorts.

Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times pens a thoughtful article on the struggles of the Seattle Mariners in 2008. It largely focuses on the demise of Kenji Johjima, but really, he is more a symptom than a cause. When Raul Ibanez is your best hitter and Jose Lopez is your hope for the future, there is plenty of blame to go around the entire organization.

The pitching side is worse. Felix Hernandez is a developing young stud, and Brandon Morrow looks like he should be fine once the M’s figure out what to do with him. Then what? Erik Bedard has made 15 starts this season and is a free agent at year’s end. Jarrod Washburn has been predictably mediocre and is still on the books for $10.35 million in 2009. Miguel Batista is owed $9 million. Carlos Silva… wait, this works better as a table:

There’s your problem. That’s more than $30 million invested in three lousy pitchers. And the Mariners owe Silva an additional $25 million through 2012.

Silva has done this before: In 2006 he sported a spiffy 75 ERA+ and then became marginally useful the following year. Still, his fantastic 2005 season appears to have been a mirage, and the track record for guys who can’t put the ball past hitters (career 3.80 K/9 in Silva’s case) isn’t real strong.

The last pitchers to post an ERA+ north of 100 and a K/9 south of 4.00 (minimum 1000 IP) retired in 1990 and were almost exclusively relievers. (Dan Quisenberry and Greg Minton, if you’re wondering.) Starters? Then you’re looking at guys like Geoff Zahn and Larry Gura, who left the game in 1985. If you want to compare Silva to contemporary pitchers, there aren’t many from which to choose: Kirk Reuter and Ricky Bones are pretty much it.

That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, does it? I wish I had a solution in mind, but I’m not sure there’s much anyone can do with those contracts. Baker notes in his article that the Twins had interest in Washburn. Even if the M’s jettisoned him, though, they’d still be on the hook for $45 million to Batista and Silva. Not that shedding Washburn’s contract wouldn’t help, but $45 million worth of lousy pitching is a lot to overcome.

So yeah, good luck with that…

Here’s a fun one. Well, if you find this sort of thing fun, anyway.

Seems FOX’s Jeanne Zelasko offended some fans of the Tampa Bay Rays by referring to the team as the Tampa Rays (you know, without the “Bay”). She’s apologized for her oversight, but what I want to know is how we work Anaheim into the conversation.

I’m thinking “Tampa Bay Rays of St. Petersburg By Way of Anaheim with a Twist of Montreal Thrown In for Old Time’s Sake.” Heck, we could probably work some corporate sponsorship in there, too, like the teams in Japan do.

Just call them winners, and be done with it. Makes sense to me…

I’m still recovering from a weekend spent hanging with the bloggers in Vegas. While I search for parts of my mind that seem to have gone missing, head on over to Ducksnorts and read about my experience at Blog World and New Media Expo 2008. Also, if you’re a sports blogger, consider attending next year’s event. We need more of us out there.

The Brewers certainly are making life difficult for themselves. First they fire their manager in the middle of a September pennant race, now they may lose one of their best pitchers.

Right-hander Ben Sheets, who has suffered a variety of injuries over the years, is dinged up again, this time with “tightness in his right forearm.” It’s unclear whether he’ll be able to pitch through it, but this can’t be good for a team that desperately needs some stability over the final two weeks if they are to reach the post-season.

Although the Brewers have played better in the second half (32-25) than in the first (52-43), they have run into a serious wall this September, starting off with a 4-12 record. You don’t stay in the hunt without talent, but if Sheets can’t keep going… well, overcoming that might be a bit much to ask of a team that is already in a tailspin.

Then again, stranger things have happened…

I see that Joe feels bad for me. While I appreciate the sympathy, I would like to assure everyone that I have enough self-pity for the both of us.

I should also note, for those who haven’t had the “pleasure” of watching the Padres on a daily basis this year, that it’s not the hitting that’s been difficult to take. Adrian Gonzalez is a stud, and Brian Giles and Jody Gerut have put up good numbers. Even Scott Hairston had his moments before getting hurt, and Chase Headley shows promise.

No, what’s been brutal to watch is the pitching. If fans here in San Diego have learned anything this year, it’s that winning with a 1-man rotation is nigh impossible.

You think I’m guilty of hyperbole. I wish. Boy, do I wish. Cha Seung Baek? Shawn Estes? How about Eric Nolte while we’re at it? Maybe some Juan Tyrone Eichelberger? Al Santorini?

Seriously, offense isn’t the problem. On the bright side, I know where to go for bad hitting, too. I just have to look at my adopted American League team, the Kansas City Royals. When Ross Gload is your starting first baseman and Mike Aviles is your biggest offensive threat… I’m sorry, when does the draft start?

Seems the Astros are a little upset about having a couple of home games moved to Milwaukee to accommodate Hurricane Ike. Quoth first baseman/travel coordinator Lance Berkman:

We could have gone to Atlanta, done something in Florida. In my opinion, there’s more going on here than just getting two baseball games in. They could’ve gone any number of places. Heck, we could’ve played a doubleheader on Monday in Florida.

Huh, a doubleheader on Monday in Florida. He should have told MLB. I’ll bet they hadn’t considered that.

You know where I would have played the games? Montreal. Let a team that has been displaced from its city play in a city that has been displaced from its team.

If not Montreal, then maybe Puerto Rico. I always get those two places confused…

Here’s what I don’t get. How do you take a guy who hasn’t started with regularity since 2003 (and hasn’t been effective in that role since 2000) and stick him back in a big-league rotation at age 31? Okay, so Ryan Dempster as closer was kind of a disaster in 2006 and 2007, but usually the next stop for a guy who can’t cut it in the bullpen is… well, somewhere other than the ballpark.

Dempster, of course, has responded with the best season of his life. The guy is 15-6, which is nice, although playing for the Cubs certainly helps the record. Nobody scores like the Cubs (5.33 R/G), and they are particularly good to Dempster (5.88 R/G).

No, what makes Dempster’s season so remarkable — aside from the fact that it came out of nowhere — is that he’s actually earned that record. He ranks among the top 10 in the National League in ERA, ERA+, H/9, and K/9. In other words, his record is no accident in the way that, say, Ramon Ortiz’s 16 wins in 2003 despite a 5.20 ERA was.

This is the beauty of baseball. Despite our best efforts, it remains unpredictable, its truths elusive. Just when we think we’ve got a clear grasp of the situation, a Ryan Ludwick emerges here, an Aubrey Huff rebounds there, and a guy like Dempster suddenly forgets to suck.

Well, then. Good for him. Good for all of us.