“I loved it here,” said Sabathia, who went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts after a July 7 trade from the Cleveland Indians, and led the Brewers to their first postseason in 26 years. “It’s one of the most fun times I’ve had in my life. It was definitely a blessing to be traded here.

“Everything was great. We accomplished a lot. This team will be back. There’s a lot of good young players in here.

“I’ll go home this winter and make the best decision.”

The Brewers are going to have to pay a pretty hefty price to keep Sabathia as it would seem the Yankees are going to try and outbid every team on the planet for CC.

…According to Ian Browne of MLB.com Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan “Cinco Ocho” Papelbon might not be available to pitch tonight. He’s pitched in the first three games of the series and has gone two innings in his last two appearances. Even Papelbon is unsure if he’ll be able to go if Francona needs him in Game 4.

“Question mark,” Papelbon said. “I’m saying that’s a question mark from me, too. But I feel fine. I’ll wake up in the morning and see how I feel.”

…According to Mark Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times Tampa Bay Rays closer Troy Percival threw an inning of an instructional league game and felt “Fine”. Percival is hopeing to return to the club for the ALCS (if the Rays advance).

…Speaking of the Rays, Dioner Navaro is playing with some serious discomfort as would be expected from catching 120 regular season games. Even his teammates know that he’s not running on full power.

“He’s basically playing on all soul right now,” Rays first baseman Carlos Pena said.

Though if you ask him, everything is just fine.

“I feel great. There’s no pain, there’s no soreness,” he said.

“It’s the playoffs,” he said. “Call me a day after everything is over and I’ll be pretty sore, but right now I feel great. There’s no time to be tired now.”

…Arizona Diamondbacks right hander Brandon Backe was arrested Sunday morning (along with about a dozen on lookers) after a fight broke out in Galviston Texas. Here’s what DBacks officials had to say when reached for comment.

“We’re aware of an incident involving Brandon. We have spoken with him regarding his version of the event. Seeing this is a legal matter, any further comment on our part would be inappropriate.”

…There’s nothing like being a rookie and making post season history, just ask Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Last night against the Angels Ellsbury hit a three run single, yes you read that right - a three run single. It’s the first time in post season history that a three run single has been recorded.

…Good news for the Seattle Mariners according to the Tacoma News Tribune. Southpaw Erik Bedard is set to begin rehab on his surgically repaired shoulder.

“The surgery was the best-case scenario, not the worst,” Bedard said. “They cleaned up the fraying on my labrum and took out the cyst. I start rehab tomorrow.”

Of the 43-plus hours of baseball and hours of studio coverage, I have personally viewed about 75% of the action and have seen at least three innings of every game including the full slate of seven of 13 games.

Overall, the coverage provided by TBS has been solid.  Watching MLB.TV for most of the year, I have always enjoyed local announce teams over national teams but the roster of postseason announcers put together has delivered — for the most part — quality broadcasts throughout the first round of the 2008 postseason. 

With all telecasts, there are highs and lows and with two big Game Fours on tap for Monday, now is a good of a time as any to take a look at TBS’s coverage and the good, the bad and the ugly of their Division Series coverage:

THE GOOD

• Ernie Johnson and the Studio Analysts

If you are a basketball fan and dig TNT’s hoops coverage, it’s likely you are a fan of Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley in studio.  For the second year in a row, TBS has put their studio show in the very capable hands of Johnson and brought back Cal Ripken Jr. and Curtis Granderson and added Dennis Eckersley to the mix.  Johnson is an excellent studio host and, in my opinion, the best in any sport on any network.  He’s better with Smith and Barkley covering hoops but great in his baseball gig, too.  Eckersley — except for the hair — is a huge upgrade over Frank Thomas from last year’s coverage and Ripken and Granderson are plusses, too.

• Red Sox-Angels Coverage

Even before last night’s exciting 12-inning marathon, the Red Sox-Angels series has been the best of the four Best-of-Fives.  Although I have occasionally disagreed with Buck Martinez’s analysis, the duo of Chip Caray and Martinez has not fallen into the trap of gushing over the Boston Red Sox like they are one of only two teams in baseball like another network — hint: rhymes with Sox — does.  I’m also a big fan of the less crowded broadcast booth in the Red Sox-Angels series and White Sox-Rays series compared to the trios in place for the two National League series.

• Harold Reynolds

Of all of the Color Commentators working during the first round, Reynolds is the best.  He’s like Joe Morgan… if Morgan were insightful, accurate, interesting and willing to take a back seat to the game.

THE BAD

• Brewers-Phillies Coverage

Brian Anderson, the play-by-play guy for the Brewers-Phillies series on TBS, has an interesting connection to the Milwaukee Brewers:  He’s the Brewers’ play-by-play announcer during the regular season!  Unlike what they did with Red Sox play-by-play announcer Don Orsillo — he’s covering the White Sox-Rays series — TBS used Anderson to cover the team he had a close association with all season.  Once the series moved to Milwaukee, Anderson sounded more like the local guy he is rather than the national guy he was asked to be. 

But Anderson was not the only issue.  The Brewers fell behind 5-0 early in the fourth and final game of the series which prompted the TBS announce team to repeat over and over and over again that the Brewers came back a Major League-high 43 times in 2008.  However, they failed to mention that the Brewers never (that’s zero times) came back from a deficit of five runs or more.  On a side note, the broadcast team hyped up for Bernie Brewer for a game and a half before Prince Fielder took Joe Blanton yard.  The camera flashed to Bernie waving a Brewers’ flag but they never showed him go down the slide.  Disappointing!

• The Cubs

You can’t talk about the first round of the playoffs without mentioning how poorly the Cubs played.  It’s not TBS’s fault and it was somewhat poetic the network threw Game Three to TNT while Game Three of the Phillies-Brewers game wrapped.  The Cubs-Dodgers game preempted Titanic in the middle of the movie but quickly went back to TBS when the other game ended.  The Dodgers knocked off the Cubs in three straight but the Cubs put up a heck of a challenge to the title of “Biggest Sinking Ship” shown on TNT on Saturday.

• Tony Gwynn’s Voice

Tony Gwynn provides a wealth of knowledge about the National Pastime.  So, why is it that I can’t get past his nasal delivery?

THE UGLY

• TBS’s Hot Corner Web Coverage

Note to TBS and MLB:  If you plan on showing me four additional camera angles that I can access on MLB.com, it might help to provide the TV feed since there was about a 10-second delay between TBS’s coverage and the coverage on TBS’s Hot Corner.  Great idea just not watchable when executed.

• Craig Sager’s Suits

Known for his flamboyant outfits, Sager’s outfits continue to look so out of place in a baseball setting.  Like when ESPN’s Erin Andrews’ field reports require shots of her roving escapades, I rarely know what Sager says because I’m completely distracted.  Only in this case, there’s nothing pretty about Sager’s choice of sideline garb.  Maybe I’m just jealous of Sager who is married to a former Chicago Bulls dancer, 21 years his junior.

• “Frank TV”, “Frank TV”, “Frank TV”… “FRANK TV!!!!”

The number of “Frank TV” promos viewed during the five days of baseball playoffs was higher than Mark Reynold’s and Jack Cust’s 2008 strikeouts combined.  If you don’t know, that’s a lot!  The first “Frank TV” commercial came minutes into the first round of studio banter and immediately anyone who watched TBS’s coverage last year had flashbacks of TBS’s over-promotion of Frank Calliendo and his show.  By Friday, Calliendo was haunting me in my dreams and by Saturday, I began finishing every sentence with “Very funny!”  Although TBS’s decision to kill the viewer for a second year with “Frank TV” promos was not “very funny!”

In Chicago, the White Sox pulled off a rare feat with a 5-3 win over the Rays behind a solid outing by John Danks, a shutdown effort from the bullpen and no home runs.  Throughout the regular season the White Sox struggled when they failed to hit the long ball and posted a 9-31 record when hitting zero home runs.  They also lost Game Two of the series when the team went homerless but an RBI single by A.J. Pierzynski in the third, a bases loaded sacrifice fly by Alexei Ramirez and a two-RBI double by DeWayne Wise in the fourth and an RBI single by Juan Uribe in the sixth put five runs on the board which was enough to put the White Sox past the Rays.  The White Sox are now a perfect 4-0 in must win situations and need to run that record to 6-0 if they want to continue on to the ALCS.

In Boston, the Angels needed three extra frames to end their 11-game postseason losing streak against the Red Sox with a 5-4 win in 12 innings.  The Angels continued to impress on the road after posting the best road record in baseball in ‘08 and best since the White Sox won 52 road games in ‘05.  Los Angeles was aided by two home runs from Mike Napoli and an RBI single by Erick Aybar that scored Napoli to put the Angels up 5-4 in the top of the 12th.  Jered Weaver pitched the 11th and 12th inning in his first Major League relief appearance to get the win in the longest game in ALDS history at five hours and 19 minutes.  This season, the Angels were 13-3 following two consecutive losses and won three in a row following two losses five times. 

Both series resume on Monday when the White Sox and Rays square off in Chicago at 5:07 PM ET and the Red Sox and Angels compete in Boston at 8:37 PM ET. 

Gavin Floyd (17-8, 3.84 ERA) is responsible for keeping the White Sox alive in their series while the Rays send Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38 ERA) to the hill seeking their first-ever Championship Series berth.  Floyd got the win in the last game of the season in their make-up game against the Tigers to gain the Sox a play-in game with the Twins.  He has never faced the Rays in his career but was 10-3 with a 3.55 ERA in 17 starts at U.S. Cellular Field.  Sonnanstine is 0-3 with a 4.39 ERA in his last seven starts and has not won since August 18.  He made three starts against the White Sox this year and is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA including a complete game shutout over Chicago on April 19.

John Lackey (Regular Season: 12-5, 3.75 ERA; Postseason: 0-1, 2.70 ERA) looks for redemption after losing Game One of the series at the site of his near no-hitter on July 29.  During the regular season, Lackey went 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Red Sox and pitched well in Game One but was outdueled by his Game Four opponent, Jon Lester.  Lester (Regular Season: 16-6, 3.21 ERA; Postseason: 1-0, 0.00 ERA) gave up one unearned run in seven innings and has not allowed an earned run in the postseason in his last 16 innings of work.  Lester allowed four earned runs in five innings in his only regular season appearance against the Angels in ‘08 and got a no decision. 

The Phillies advance to the NLCS for the first time since ‘93 when they got past the Atlanta Braves in six games.  The Dodgers make their first NLCS appearance since ‘88 when they beat the New York Mets in seven games.  Both teams advanced to the NLCS in their last appearances but this time that will not be the case.  The Phillies and Dodgers met in the NLCS in ‘77, ‘78 and ‘83 with the Dodgers taking the series in ‘77 and ‘78 and the Phillies getting past the Dodgers in ‘83.  This is the first time both clubs meet in the NLCS since it was changed to a Best-of-Seven format in ‘85.

Here is a preview of the key story lines to come from both teams and the tentative schedule for the NLCS with probable* pitching match-ups:

Game One: Thursday, October 9 — Los Angeles Dodgers (Derek Lowe) at Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels)
Game Two: Friday, October 10 — Los Angeles Dodgers (Chad Billingsley) at Philadelphia Phillies (Brett Myers)
Game Three: Sunday, October 12 — Philadelphia Phillies (Jamie Moyer) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Hiroki Kuroda)
Game Four: Monday, October 13 — Philadelphia Phillies (Joe Blanton) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Game Five*: Wednesday, October 15 — Philadelphia Phillies (Cole Hamels) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Derek Lowe)
Game Six*: Friday, October 17 —  Los Angeles Dodgers (Chad Billingsley) at Philadelphia Phillies (Brett Myers)
Game Seven*: Saturday, October 18 — Los Angeles Dodgers (Hiroki Kuroda) at Philadelphia Phillies (Jamie Moyer)

* Games Five, Six and Seven if necessary.  Pitching match-ups based on previous series and all available information.  No official announcement has been made.

STORY LINES

• Dodgers’ third base coach Larry Bowa managed the Phillies from ’01 to ‘04 prior to current Phillies’ manager Charlie Manuel took over the team.  Bowa also played on the only World Champion Phillies team in ‘80.
• Phillies’ first base coach Davey Lopes played for the Dodgers from ‘72 to ‘81 and was a member of the World Champion ‘81 Dodgers and the Dodgers team that knocked out the Phillies in ‘77 and ‘78.
• Charlie Manuel heaps big praise on Manny Ramirez who he coached and managed as the hitting coach and manager of the Cleveland Indians while Ramirez was there.
• Neither team won a game in the other team’s park this year.
• NLDS Game Two hero Shane Victorino was drafted by the Dodgers in the sixth round of the ‘99 draft and then acquired from the Dodgers by the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft in ‘04.
• Jayson Werth is also a former Dodger and had a disappointing season in Los Angeles before joining the Phillies.
• Rudy Seanez played with the Dodgers in ‘94, ‘95 and ‘07.
• The Phillies have seven players from California including Greg Dobbs (Los Angeles), Scott Eyre (Inglewood), Chase Utley (Pasadena) and Ryan Madson (Long Beach).  Cole Hamels (San Diego), Jimmy Rollins (Oakland) and Brad Lidge (Sacramento) are also from the state.
• The Dodgers have no former Phillies on their roster and only one player born in Pennsylvania — reliever Joe Beimel (St. Marys).
• The Dodgers own the lifetime regular series against the Phillies since 1901.  The Dodgers are 1048-817 (.562) against the Phillies.  In the postseason, the Dodgers are 7-4 against the Phillies.
• The Dodgers have 22 NL Pennants (nine in L.A.) and six World Championships (five in L.A.).  The Phillies have five Pennants and one World Championship.

The Milwaukee Brewers today removed 2B Rickie Weeks from the National League Division Series 25-man roster with a sprained left knee. He has been replaced with SS Alcides Escobar.

He injured that knee running out a ground ball in yesterdays win against the Phillies. Now due to the rules, Weeks wont be eligible to play again until the next round (if the Brewers advance).

Anyway, I’ve been thinking — always a dangerous thing — about Mark Reynolds and his 204 strikeouts this year. On the one hand, I’m glad to see that Bob Melvin kept penciling Reynolds into the lineup despite the latter’s season-long case of acute contact deficiency; on the other, where was the love for Russell Branyan all those years ago?

Reynolds hit .239/.320/.458 in 2008. That’s a 97 OPS+ and 5.1 RC/G, if you’re keeping score at home. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they’re also not the sort that would seem to justify so many strikeouts. When Ryan Howard strikes out 200 times in a season, at least he’s out there knocking 45-50 homers.

Reynolds hit 28. One more and he would have had as many as Jorge Cantu.

Yes, that Jorge Cantu.

So Reynolds must be something special with the glove then. Actually, he led MLB third basemen in errors by a substantial margin — his 34 were 11 more than the second worst, Cincinnati’s Edwin Encarnacion — and had the third lowest range factor among National League regulars.

Branyan, meanwhile, has never managed to land a starting gig. He’s 32 now and still productive (.250/.342/.583 in 152 PA for Milwaukee in 2008), but he’s broken 300 plate appearances just twice in his career, peaking at 435 in 2002. Branyan was 26 that year and hit .228/.320/.458, which translates to a 102 OPS+ and 5.2 RC/G.

Of course, Branyan mostly played the outfield in 2002, having been moved off the hot corner because of his defense. Then again, his career numbers at third base (.946 FPct, 2.24 RF in 329 G) are no worse than those of Reynolds (.922, 2.10 in 254 G).

I guess what I’m trying to say is that although I’m happy that Reynolds has been given the opportunity to play every day despite his whifftastic tendencies, I’m also bummed that Branyan never got a similar chance. That cat could have been something. And it would have been fun to watch…

Statistics tell us that, of 35 division series where teams have taken a 2-0 lead, only five teams have rallied to win, and only one (the 2001 Yankees) have done so after dropping the first two at home. So if we want to listen to history–and which stathead among us doesn’t?–Milwaukee and the White Sox have the best shot at coming back (though, clearly, we may instead see a four-team sweep for the first time in playoff history). But I’d argue that analysis of the matchups and performances thus far tell a different story.

Let’s start at the bottom, with the Chicago White Sox.

As we all predicted here on BDD, the Sox stood little chance against the Rays. Old and tired from their sprint to the finish, the Sox were facing this year’s best story: the young, exciting, resurgent Rays.

The one question in the series, which still remains (albeit writ much smaller), is whether the wily vets at Chicago could outlast the exuberant youth of the Rays. Would the Cinderella team swoon during their first dance? As we’ve seen so far, they look ready to head to the ball, and show no signs of premature pumpkinism. Even the Balfour-Cabrera confrontation in Game 2 came out in Tampa’s favor, with the veteran shortstop fanning after trying to show up Balfour, who’s having his first great season as a reliever.

Game Three puts John Danks, who stepped up in a big way during the one-game playoff against Minnesota (8 IP, 0 ER, 2H, 4K, 3BB), against Matt Garza, who faded down the regular-season stretch. If ever there’s a chance for Chicago to step back in to this series, it’s tomorrow night. But given the way the teams have looked, this isn’t as likely as it sounds; and even if it might, nobody looks for Chicago to take three straight against this amazing young squad.

The next least likely to succeed are the Chicago Cubs.

Sorry, Chi-town fans, since I picked these guys to go all the way, along with plenty of other writers, including Jayson Stark and (evidently) many ESPN writers. Here at BDD, we were split on the outcome, and if you read the comments, very few of us were solidly on one side or the other.

Two metaphysical baseball questions hang over this series: (1) Could the Cubs’ curse overcome even a team with the best record in the NL, against the team with the worst record entering the playoffs? (2) Did Torre’s postseason magic, so notably absent in recent years, depend on the magical Yankees teams he coached?

Those questions seem to have been answered. The Cubs have looked inept and overwhelmed, from the lackluster performance in Game 1, with erstwhile Cy Young candidate Ryan Dempster pitching more like a Dumpster, unable to get out of the fourth inning and passing out walks like Moonie leaflets at the airport.

Piniella might have mucked things up with his untimely pitching moves, but the Cubs didn’t help him out, stranding runners and striking out in crucial situations. Torre looked brilliant, with each pitching move working out well, and the Dodgers looking neither ruffled nor cocky as the game developed from tight contest to done deal.

Game 2 saw the curse-bestowing goat bellowing (or braying or baaing of whatever ungodly sound goats make) loudly from the Great Beyond. The Cubs kicked the ball around on defense, flailed at it on offense, and Carlos’ Zambrano’s one-inning, four-run meltdown was more than enough for the Dodgers, who seem to be peaking at just the right time. Torre switched pitchers mercilessly, no matter the score, and has a firm hand on the Los Angeles tiller.

Game Four will be Fukudome-less (0-7 in the series) and puts midseason acquisition Rich Harden against Hiroki Kuroda. This game may depend on which Kuroda shows up: the one who tossed a complete game shutout against the Cubbies on June 6, or the one who gave up 12 runs in 5 IP in the games just before and just after that one. It’s not too late for the Cubbies, but they’re sinking fast, and the answers to those aforementioned metaphysical questions seem to be: No and, emphatically, No.

Milwaukee Brewers are the next poor chickens on the chopping block, series-wise.

They’re tight up against the Cubbies, and possibly even the White Sox, as far as futility is concerned. But they’ve looked neither as tired as the White Sox, nor as inept as the Cubs. And there’s just enough youth on this team to overcome an 0-2 deficit, especially when you throw in the fact that the Phils haven’t won a playoff series since 1993, back when John Kruk was hauling that Michelin Man physique around the bases and not through Nutrisystem commercials.

The two games thus far have been close, at least on paper, and the Brew Crew have had their chances. Yovani Gallardo’s courageous, pseudo-Willis Reed comeback to pitch Game 1, with a 4IP, 0ER performance, was topped by Cole Hamels blanking the Brewers through eight, and further undone by the shaky defense behind Gallardo, which allowed the 3 unearned runs that made the difference in the game. Brad Lidge seemed to revert to his Astros form when he allowed a run in the ninth and allowed three batters to step to the plate as the tying run. But Prince struck out, J.J. Hardy walked, and Corey Hart struck out to end the game for Milwaukee.

Game 2 was the one where the CC machine fell apart. Starting on three days’ rest for the fourth consecutive time, Sabathia showed that he was no “Iron Man” McGinnity, giving up five runs in 3.2IP, his worst and shortest outing since donning a Brewers uni and dropping the periods from his first name. Brett Myers looked shaky early, allowing a first-inning run by walking Hardy with the bases packed, but he righted the ship and Milwaukee couldn’t take advantage. They tacked on another run, but couldn ‘t overcome Victorino’s grand slam, and meekly submitted to Lidge in the ninth.

The good news is that Milwaukee is heading home, where they were 49-32 this season. The further good news is that they face an aging pitcher who can sometimes give up a ton of runs. The bad news is that the pitcher’s name is Jamie Moyer, who’s having his best year since 2003, and has been 8-1, with a 3.39 ERA since the All-Star break.

And, in further bad news, their pitcher is Dave Bush, who’s 9-10 with a 4.10 ERA this season. Then again, if we can keep playing the good-news-bad-news routine, Bush is solid at home, a full two runs better than he is on the road.

And, in bad news, CC’s not available again until Game 5 (if they make it there), which would mark his fifth straight start with three days’ rest. Do they really want to see what might happen to him if they get that far? With all the innings on his arm (a whopping 253 IP this regular season), CC might spontaneously combust.

Finally, there’s the Los Angeles Angels (still have a hard time calling them that, let alone that tongue-tangling, geography-defying moniker, “Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim”).

Almost all of us BDD prognosticators picked the Angels over the battered BoSox, but Rob McQuown will have the last laugh if Scoscia can’t turn this thing around. And with all the question marks about Boston’s health, it’s still possible the duct tape might fall off of Drew, Lowell, Beckett, or even Ortiz, giving the team with the AL’s best record a chance to vanquish their eternal playoff rivals.

If I may pat myself on the back briefly, I pointed out in my preview that Jon Lester had pitched far better than John Lackey thus year, particularly of late, and the veteran Dice-K was likely to outduel the New Angel on the Hill, Ervin Santana, who’s finally come into his own after years of potential and struggle.

These came true in Games 1 and 2, both of which Boston won with dominant pitching and clutch hitting, particularly from Drew. Lackey only gave up two runs in six innings on a two-run bomb by mini-Manny Jason Bay, but Lester went one better, giving up only one unearned run in seven innings of dominating work. He fanned seven, walked one, and scattered six hits, and Masterson and Papelbon came on to finish off the Angels. After Lackey’s departure, the once sure-thing Scot Shields looked awful trying to keep the game close, giving up two runs on four hits and putting the 2-1 game well out of reach against Papelbon.

Another bullpen meltdown made the difference in Game Two. As I expected, Santana was a little shaky, giving Boston a 4-0 lead before his team even stepped to the plate. After two straight singles to Ortiz and Youkilis, J.D. Drew doubled to bring home Ortiz, and Bay smacked another long ball, giving the Sox an early four-run lead.

Dice-K, who has worked in and out of trouble all season long, also gave up two straight singles in the first, with a third single to Hunter scoring Teixiera. He continued to give runs back in the fourth and fifth, yielding to Hideki Okajima in the sixth.

But Boston still had a 5-3 lead at this point, until Justin Masterson came on for Okajima in the seventh with two runners on. Masterson walked two to force in one of those runners, then rallied to finish the side, but he’d later let in another run to tie the game in the eighth.

In the ninth, Drew came on against K-Rod, who was pitching in his second straight inning, and blasted a two-run shot over the wall in center, giving his team the lead. Brian Joseph makes a good point in his post today that Scoscia’s decision to remove Shields after one batter was a poor one, and the results of the game certainly bear him out.

Looking ahead, tomorrow night’s game features an un-Beckett-like Beckett against a strong young arm in Joe Saunders, and (if you still wanna believe my predictions) I’d give the edge to the Angels, even in hostile territory. Lackey’s scheduled for Game 4, if they get there, where he’ll likely face Lester again, and Game 5 will probably feature Dice-K and Santana again.

If they’re anything like the first two games in this series, these if-necessary games should be tremendously exciting, and could swing either way. Which is why I give the Angels the best chance to come back from an 0-2 deficit to win.

Here’s GM Omar Minaya.

“Jerry did a very good job taking over the club midseason, and we believe that he is the right person to manage our team and lead us to the postseason,” Mets general manager Omar Minaya said in a statement.”

And here’s Manuel.

“I am thrilled and appreciative for the opportunity that ownership and Omar have given me to continue to manage the Mets,” he said in a statement.

…Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune is reporting that the Minnesota Twins are interested in Chicago White Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera this offseason. Christensen speculates that Carbrera could get a 3 year $30MM deal on the open market.

…The Florida Marlins have resigned 3B/Pinch Hitter Wes Helms to a two year deal worth about $1.9MM. If the Marlins hadn’t given him a new contract they would have had to had paid Helms $750,000 in a buy out.

…St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan will return in 2009. The team announced Friday that Duncan agreed to a one year deal with an option for 2010.

…On Friday the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Indians finally finished the deal for CC Sabathia. The Indians player to be named later now has a name: Micheal Brantley. Brantley will be in the big league camp to start the spring but will most likely end up starting the season with Triple-A Columbus.

It happened again early Saturday morning in the Angels-Red Sox game when Angels manager Mike Scioscia went to his bullpen with two outs in the eighth inning.  Behind 5-4, reliever Scot Shields walked Jacoby Ellsbury with two outs and Scioscia went to Francisco Rodriguez to keep the Angels within one.  At that point, it was referred to as Scioscia “pulling out all the stops” but the question has to be asked why was Shields not given the opportunity to finish out the inning?  Shields faced three batters, threw 10 pitches and struck out one before walking Ellsbury and both Shields and K-Rod are both right-handers which means it wasn’t for the normal reasons a pitcher is taken out mid-inning.  Instead, it was to bring in Rodriguez to insure the game stayed within one run but it also meant K-Rod was expected to pitch the ninth, a role that Rodriguez had not been asked to play the entire ‘08 season.

Consider this:  The last time the Angels used Rodriguez over two innings was August 17, 2007 against the Red Sox where he got the win after blowing a save in 1-2/3 innings of work.  The last time the Angels used Rodriguez in a non-save situation over two innings was August 1, 2007 against the Mariners where he pitched two innings and gave up two hits and a run in their 8-7 loss.

The Angels never used Rodriguez before the ninth inning once during the entire ‘08 season and rarely used him in a non-save situation.  They did use K-Rod in seven non-save situations in ‘08 and he fared well with a 2.57 ERA and a 1-1 record but never before the ninth inning and never in two different innings.

There is a history of Rodriguez’s usage in a non-save situation across two innings since becoming the team’s full-time closer in ‘05.  There were a total of 10 games where Rodriguez entered the game in a non-save situation and was asked to pitch in more than one inning.  In those 10 games, Rodriguez posted a 1-5 record with a 4.07 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17-2/3 innings.  Wouldn’t numbers like these be a red flag, especially the record?

The Angels won 100 games this year but none of them by Scioscia running the bullpen the way he did on Friday.  Not many will criticize the move because initially K-Rod got the job done but then grooved one in the ninth to J.D. Drew who made him pay with a two-run jack to eventually give the Red Sox a 2-0 lead in the series.  However, it looked like a panic move to me at the time and, in the end, asking K-Rod to pitch in a situation he last pitched in — unsuccessfully — over a year ago delivered an unwanted outcome.

It’s not Scioscia’s fault the Angels lost on Friday.  The Angels didn’t score more than one run in any inning and left 11 runners on base including Howie Kendrick who went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts and left five runners on base.  But could more effective bullpen usage have pushed the game into extra innings and got the Angels a crack at someone other than Jonathan Papelbon with a chance to win? 

There’s no denying that Scioscia is a great manager.  He has 803 wins, a Manager of the Year award and a World Series ring to prove it. Still, does it make sense to try something different in the postseason, especially after the most successful regular season of your managerial career?  Sometimes “pulling out all the stops” isn’t the best path to victory especially when your team won 100 games without feeling the necessity to panic.

There are, in fact, only a handful of tangible ways a manager can really affect a game once it’s being played. The intangibles of clubhouse atmosphere and gametime demeanor are important, but these are largely cultivated throughout the season.

Managers can, depending on their style, call for everything from individual pitches to pitchouts, and call offensive plays from steals to bunts to hit-and-runs. Even there, however, much depends on the team’s execution (even if this, too, is something created throughout the season, from spring training drills onwards).

I’m not arguing here that managers have no effect on the game, but that their effect can be difficult to measure. Even Baseball Prospectus, the annual bible of minute statistical analysis, has only recently begun to codify the manager’s input into a game. And even there, it consists mostly of counting up how often he calls for certain plays, and how well they’re executed, or how their team’s overall performance compares to the expected Pythagenport record.

One measurable statistic that BP uses, and which does tell a lot about managerial philosophy, is substitutions. Regardless of the play or pitch he calls, the ability of his team to execute is directly dependent upon the personnel in the field, which in turn is determined by the manager, before and during the game.

One very compelling difference we’ve seen thus far in the Cubs-Dodgers matchup has been the substitutions, particularly the pitching changes. Piniella is infamous for not really knowing how to handle his pitchers, while Torre’s status as the winningest manager in playoff history (as well as the great pitchers he’s coached) tells us, at least in part, how well he handles such important decisions.

If we look at the small two-game sample space of the Cubs-Dodgers series thus far, it paints a very different pitcher picture (say that one five times fast).

Torre is quick with the hook, protective of a lead, and creative in the way he uses his staff. Piniella, on the other hand, seems to be stuck in a rut with how he handles his starters and bullpen, displaying what is (especially for him) a patience with his pitchers that certainly helped contribute to the lopsided scores thus far, if not the losses themselves.

Game 1: starters Derek Lowe (LAD) and Ryan Dempster (CHC) 

Lowe coughed up two early runs to the Cubs, a two-run jack by Mark DeRosa in the bottom of the second. It wasn’t an awful pitch, and Torre left him in. No surprise here—two runs early isn’t much, and Lowe looked good.

Lowe proved his manager’s confidence by rebounding from the two-run homer to strike out Theriot, give up a drooler of a single to Dempster, and retire Soriano on a pop-up. He continued to improve throughout the night, inducing timely ground balls and getting key strikeouts, consistently getting ahead of batters with first-pitch strikes.

Dempster, tacked to a two-run lead, started to nibble at the plate in the third, never a good sign. Blake helped him by fouling out on a 2-0 pitch, but Dempster then walked the pitcher on seven pitches, and leadoff hitter Furcal on six. He fell behind each of the next two batters, ultimately getting out of the bases-loaded jam by striking out Ethier on a 3-2 pitch.

He continued this pattern in the fourth and the fifth, falling behind six of the next eight batters (including pitcher Lowe) before walking Ramirez and Ethier to load the bases once again. It’s a bit surprising that Lou didn’t yank him here, as poor as his location had been, or at least get someone in the bullpen going. Dempster had only walked 76 batters all year long, and he’d walked nearly 10% of those on the night. Something wasn’t right.

Afterwards, Piniella said, “‘He pitched himself out of trouble an inning or two before. We were concerned about his pitch count, but, no, we were going to let him get himself out of trouble.”

Instead, Loney hit the grand slam that put the game out of reach.

Hindsight is 20-20, as they say, but Piniella made the kind of “leave-him-in” decision you make during the season, not the playoffs. Dempster clearly wasn’t himself, and so what if you trash the guy’s confidence? How’s his confidence now? At least get someone going in the ‘pen when your starter can’t find the plate, in case the worst happens. Leaving him in to face one of the Dodger power threats, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley? What did Lou expect to happen?

Lou not only left him in for that batter, he did for one more, too, and he gave up a double to Kemp. Fortunately, this didn’t add to the damage, but four runs was plenty. In came Sean Marshall to stop the bleeding with a strikeout.

Now back to Lowe and Torre. Tacked to the same two-run lead as Dempster had, Lowe responded properly in the sixth, falling behind only on Soriano (the first-pitch ball to Lee was on a called strikeout, not a symptom of control problems). He fanned Soriano on three more pitches and induced an inning-ending groundout to Lee. In the sixth, he fell behind most of the batters, but none of them ended up hurting Lowe. Still, the night was over for him.

Torre replaced him in the seventh with Cory Wade, who was a bit shaky, falling behind on three of four batters, but nothing happened worse than Fontenot’s single. In a double-switch, Wade came out and Broxton was on the hill in the eighth.

In the meantime, Marshall walked Lowe with one out in the sixth, but retired the side. In the seventh, he gave up a leadoff homer to Manny in the seventh to bring the lead to 5-2, before finishing off the side.

Could Lou have pulled him before this point? Walking the pitcher is never a good sign, but Marshall had been doing fairly well otherwise. About all we can say here is that the Cubs have plenty of good arms still in the bullpen, and a two-run deficit isn’t the time to bring out your scrubs.

In the eighth, Piniella replaced him with  Samardzija, who promptly gave up a double to DeWitt on a 2-1 pitch, followed by an RBI single to Casey Blake on a 3-2 pitch. Torre’s aforementioned double-switch brought in Jeff Kent, with Samardzija still on the hill, and (fortunately for the Cubs) Kent hit into a DP on an 0-2 pitch, and Furcal followed with a deep fly on a 3-2 pitch.

At this point in the game, Piniella had apparently given up hope, down 6-2 in the ninth, for the next pitching change he made was to bring in starter Jason Marquis (11-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), who has made one relief appearance all year long. Wood and Marmol and other relievers were in the pen, but Lou went to Marquis, who responded by giving up a dinger to Russell Martin, the first batter he saw. He was still out there for Manny Ramirez, who fanned on a 3-2 pitch, and he gave up a warning-track flyball on a 2-1 pitch to Ethier and a groundout on a 2-1 pitch to James Loney.

Torre, with a five run lead, went to Greg Maddux in relief, (8-13, 4.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 2008). Maddux allows Theriot to reach on a one-out, 0-1, single, but induces an 0-1 groundout from pinch-hitter Daryl Ward and an 0-1 pop fly to Soriano. He gets ahead of the batters and gets the guys out—that’s vintage Maddux. Note the comparison to the counts on Marquis’ batters.

Again, it’s very easy to point fingers after the fact, but Pinella clearly seemed to be waving the white flag by bringing in Marquis to protect a four-run lead, the largest lead that you can still tie with one swing.

Torre, on the other hand, stayed with semi-closer Broxton, with Saito warm, to protect that four-run lead. When it pushed to five runs, he brought in Maddux—a dependable pitcher with a ton of postseason experience, including in relief, and certainly a guy you could expect to protect a five-run lead. And Saito was still warm, in case Maddux melted.

Torre was careful, and his pitching moves panned out well. Piniella seemed to make all the wrong moves at all the wrong times, and clearly seemed to surrender in the ninth. Coincidence? Friday-afternoon retrospective managing?  Let’s look at Game 2.

Game 2: Billingsley (LAD) vs. Zambrano (CHC)

In contrast to Dempster the night before, Zambrano pitched well, but his defense failed him. He dispatched the top of the Dodgers’ order in the first with ten pitches, then gave up a leadoff single to Ethier in the second. On a hit-and-run, Theriot was pulled out of position, partly screened by the second-base ump, and couldn’t handle Loney’s smash with his bare hand. Ethier made it to third on the play, but Zambrano recovered and struck out Kemp for the first out.

One DP and they’d be out of it.

That’s what he induced from DeWitt, the next batter: an easy grounder to DeRosa. DeRosa bobbled the ball, attempted to flip the ball to Theriot, but the throw pulled him off the bag and DeWitt was already on first. All runners safe and Ethier scored the first run of the game. But with runners on first and third, Zambrano still only needed a ground-ball DP.

Next pitch, he got it again, on a Blake grounder to first, but Derek Lee bobbled it, Zambrano was late covering the bag, and all runners were safe and another run scored.

Rothschild came out to calm down Zambrano. But the next batter Furcal executed a beautiful drag bunt, lifting the ball just over Zambrano and short of DeRosa, who can’t field it in time to get the speedy Dodgers shortstop. Did Torre call this, to keep rattling Zambrano, or did Furcal choose it on his own? Probably the latter, but either way (by calling it or encouraging Furcal to use his skills), it’s good managing of one kind or another.

And either way: 3-0, LA.

Here, Z lost his composure and grooved one to Russell Martin, who laced a two-run double to deep left center. 5-0, and (for all intents and purposes) game over. The Cubs didn’t rally, didn’t recover, and Zambrano gave up another run to Manny’s solo shot in the fifth, though he was not lifted until the seventh.

Could Piniella have yanked Z earlier? Undoubtedly. He was pitching well, but sometimes, as they say, “It’s just not your night.” He was certainly rattled, but Piniella left him out there, something the always-careful Torre might not have.

Neal Cotts came in in the seventh, gave up another run, Marmol gave up two in the eighth, and Wood gave up one more in the ninth. At least here, Piniella was trying to keep the lead from getting out of hand, but by the time Marmol entered in the eighth, with the Cubs trailing 7-1,the game’s really out of hand, and throwing Wood out there to cough up another one in the ninth, trailing 9-1, was really puzzling.

The game was already out of hand and, like a compulsive gambler, Piniella was throwing good money after bad. Lou, so thrown off by the deficit and the awful defensive performance by the Cub, seemed to revert to his normal eighth and ninth inning guys, score be damned.

These were the guys he was saving from Game One? How does this help the Cubs in do-or-die Game Three, with Wood and Marmol having pitched the night before, their confidence dinged up by shoddy performances?

Had this been do-or-die Game Three, one can see Lou emptying both barrels, but to hold back a six-run lead in the eighth, and an eight-run lead in the ninth? Really?

Contrast now with Torre. He was fortunate enough to have solid defense and pitching, and Billingsley blew through the Cubs lineup in the second through the sixth, with only three batters reaching base, two on walks and one on a single, erased on a double play. He had the lead, and pitched to contact, and Torre rewarded him with more time on the mound.

Still, in the seventh, up 7-0, Billingsley gave up back-to-back doubles to DeRosa and Edmonds, and the Cubs scored their first run of the night. He’d thrown 95 pitches, but the bullpen got busy. When he gave up a two-out single to the next batter, Geovany Soto, he was out of there.

Cory Wade came in again and retired Fukudome on a weak grounder to finish the inning. He mowed them down in the eighth, and Torre brought in Saito in the ninth, leading 10-1. Saito hadn’t pitched yet, and either he needed the work (having been up several times the night before) or Torre wanted to protect his nine-run cushion.

Saito gave up a double to Lee, a single to Aramis Ramirez and a double to DeRosa, scoring Lee. Cubs now trailed 10-2, but Torre took no chances. He brought in Broxton, who walked Pie, then got Soto to line out.

Still taking no chances with one out, Torre got Maddux up in the pen, in case Broxton faltered, as he was having trouble locating his pitches. But Broxton fanned Fukudome (hardly a difficult trick these days) and Daryl Ward, both caught looking.

So what’s the verdict? At every turn, Piniella seemed to make the wrong moves, and Torre the right one. Is it luck? Good managing?

As you can see from the above, Piniella clearly seemed to leave his guys out there a little too long, and his bullpen usage is puzzling in the first two games. In Game 1, it’s understandable he might want to protect his end-game guys, but then why waste them in a washout Game 2?

One way that managers can affect their pitchers is with mound visits, but Piniella’s mound visits rarely have a calming effect, which is why Rothschild goes out there instead. Lou manages to tick off pitchers from Rob “You Don’t Want To Be Treated Like A Man” Dibble to Carlos Zambrano, who tried to stalk off the mound a few weeks back without turning the ball over to the reliever. Torre doesn’t often visit the mound—and in both games, didn’t really need to—but he is by all accounts a calming presence.

It’s easy to sit here in front of a computer screen, with memory and a detailed box score, to point fingers at Piniella’s and Torre’s pitching choices, and hindsight is—again—20/20. And the series isn’t over yet.

But if the Cubs drop a third game any of the next three nights, take a close look at the way these managers use their pitchers.

Torre takes no chances, and has no problem pulling any pitcher at any time—no “letting him work it out” the way Piniella did with Dempster in Game 1. When Saito looked bad in giving up two quick runs, he was gone, and the Cubs had no chance to mount any sort of comeback.

When Torre used Maddux, it was as an unconventional way to finish a game that was fairly out of reach, and with a Hall of Fame pitcher with crazy amounts of playoff experience (195 IP, 10-11 record, 3.38 ERA). When Lou used Marquis in a game that was still within reach, it seemed like a white flag, especially with a 29-year-old who’s got all of 21 postseason innings of experience, with a 4.57 ERA and an 0-2 record.

It’s still the guys on the field who decide this more than the manager, and it’s possible that Torre and Piniella could have switched places for both games, with similar outcomes. But with personnel as the one element of the game that the manager can control, Piniella showed a remarkable lack of foresight and intelligence, while Torre played it safe and smart.

No wonder he’s won 78 postseason games.